Grocery, Housing & Daycare Prices & Working Class Americans

[superrific]

I'm certainly starting to change my mind. I didn't realize how much beef we were importing from places like brazil. I was really thinking more about all the crops we weren't selling overseas because of our tariffs.

So yeah. Reading up on it, I think the tariffs are a significant secondary cause. I also think environmental factors like the screw worm and droughts are also a significant secondary cause. At least with beef.

Wow. The jacket is admitting (sort of) that he was (sort of) wrong about something. Can something be both a baby step and miraculous.

How much did that hurt? Are you writhing in pain now, having been wrong? Did your testosterone levels plummet? Or is it actually all OK, with no permanent damage?

 

[superrific]

Almost none of the stimulus came from Biden. Virtually all of the tax rebate checks were Trump. PPP was Trump. What stimulus did Biden had out that was easy money?

American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[superrific]

I am mostly talking about the American recovery plan. And that is mostly hindsight is 20/20. It's hard to get something like that exactly right coming out of the largest economic disruption in 100 years. Who knows how much stimulus was needed. But as it turns out, it was too much.

It's been shown that the ARPA had only a modest effect on inflation. The primary driver of the inflation was supply chain disruption. The estimates I have read say that maybe a point of inflation was from fiscal policy, and the other factors were related to exogenous shocks to the economy.

What caused the U.S. pandemic-era inflation? | Brookings

Ben Bernanke, Distinguished Senior Fellow at the Hutchins Center at Brookings, and Olivier Blanchard, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, answer a timely question: What caused the increase in U.S. inflation during and after the COVID-19 pandemic?

www.brookings.edu

"In fact, most of the rise in inflation in 2021 and 2022 was driven by developments that directly raised prices rather than wages, including sharp increases in global commodity prices and sectoral price spikes driven by a combination of pandemic-induced kinks in supply chains and a huge shift in demand during the pandemic to goods from services. Fiscal policy contributed to the inflation, but primarily through its effects on consumer demand for commodities and goods in limited supply rather than through the labor market."

There are dozens of articles along these lines. It wasn't the ARPA. It was an exogenous shock, mostly. The reason that fiscal policy doesn't typically cause inflation is that the Fed has such an ability to pull excess liquidity out of the market.

 

[bassydude77]

then go back explaining to me how windmills kill whales. (last part happened on Tuesday)

The windmills killing whales thing is so bizarre. How exactly do people think windmills are killing the whales? Are the blades turning underwater and chopping the whales up? Are whales unable to navigate around large, stationary objects? Are the windmills eating the plankton and bait fish whales feed on? Like many things in the MAGAverse, there is just no logic applied at all.

 

[Zoo_View]

The windmills killing whales thing is so bizarre. How exactly do people think windmills are killing the whales? Are the blades turning underwater and chopping the whales up? Are whales unable to navigate around large, stationary objects? Are the windmills eating the plankton and bait fish whales feed on? Like many things in the MAGAverse, there is just no logic applied at all.

I believe I’ve heard Trump say that the large windmills make a noise that drives whales bat-shit crazy. MAGAts believe whatever he says.

 

[gtyellowjacket]

Almost none of the stimulus came from Biden. Virtually all of the tax rebate checks were Trump. PPP was Trump. What stimulus did Biden had out that was easy money?

$1,400 payments to eligible adults.

Expanded unemployment benefits

Expanded child tax credits and dependent care benefits

Extended PPP

Stimulus to various industries like restaurants.

Stimulus to local and state governments to meet budget shortfalls

Money for landlords.

Money for k through 12 to help open up schools as well as colleges.

I think you can make a good case for some of the stuff but it did tend to exacerbate inflation.

 

[mpaer]

$1,400 payments to eligible adults.

Expanded unemployment benefits

Expanded child tax credits and dependent care benefits

Extended PPP

Stimulus to various industries like restaurants.

Stimulus to local and state governments to meet budget shortfalls

Money for landlords.

Money for k through 12 to help open up schools as well as colleges.

I think you can make a good case for some of the stuff but it did tend to exacerbate inflation.

It was factor in inflation. Yes
Most agree it was not THE factor. That was supply chain disruption and plain ole consumer good giants being greedy
The "Good " in all these funding programs was it saved a lot of families/businesses arse

 

[altmin]

The windmills killing whales thing is so bizarre. How exactly do people think windmills are killing the whales? Are the blades turning underwater and chopping the whales up? Are whales unable to navigate around large, stationary objects? Are the windmills eating the plankton and bait fish whales feed on? Like many things in the MAGAverse, there is just no logic applied at all.

I think she tried to explain that it makes the whales beach themselves. i tried to counter argue that the US navy ignores international agreements on sonar noise and that is much more likely a culprit, but I might as well have just beached myself as she "does her own research."

 

[UNCatTech]

I'm certainly starting to change my mind. I didn't realize how much beef we were importing from places like brazil. I was really thinking more about all the crops we weren't selling overseas because of our tariffs.

So yeah. Reading up on it, I think the tariffs are a significant secondary cause. I also think environmental factors like the screw worm and droughts are also a significant secondary cause. At least with beef.

I'm sure there isn't one singular factor, but the TARIFF factor was avoidable.

 

[UNCatTech]

$1,400 payments to eligible adults.

Expanded unemployment benefits

Expanded child tax credits and dependent care benefits

Extended PPP

Stimulus to various industries like restaurants.

Stimulus to local and state governments to meet budget shortfalls

Money for landlords.

Money for k through 12 to help open up schools as well as colleges.

I think you can make a good case for some of the stuff but it did tend to exacerbate inflation.

The question is, where would we be without this?

Many more homeless? Many more bankrupt? Many more unemployed?

Also, even with these inflation was going the right direction until trump 2.0. The current inflation is not a product of COVID, it's a product of trump.

 

[UNCatTech]

The windmills killing whales thing is so bizarre. How exactly do people think windmills are killing the whales? Are the blades turning underwater and chopping the whales up? Are whales unable to navigate around large, stationary objects? Are the windmills eating the plankton and bait fish whales feed on? Like many things in the MAGAverse, there is just no logic applied at all.

While I'm not on the Wind turbines are killing whales so we should stop fighting climate change. I have read that placement of the wind turbines is important.

Humans do many things that do impact the whales ability to navigate and to communicate. Wind turbines can create frequencies that interfere with the whales navigation, so they should be placed properly to avoid the normal migration paths of whales.

But that's not the connection drump is talking about. He probably believes that the whales are jumping into the blades. He probably saw it from his golf course.

 

[UNCatTech]

I posted this in the Current Events thread but it really struck a chord with me due to some recent personal experiences:



Just this past Sunday, I stopped at a grocery store I had not previously visited in a less well off part of my county on my way home from the mountains to grab a few things for the week. It is a very nice Ingles. But by some coincidence there were two different families circling the aisles at the same time I was and I couldn’t help but overhear both families having separate pressure due to grocery prices.

One family had their kids with them and were more in a constant put that back, everything costs so much you only get one treat and then the parents were huddled in the meat aisle talking about how they could save on meat to get something for the kids.

The other was a couple having a tense back and forth about their grocery list and prices. Several times the guy picks up something and loudly declares how expensive it is and the wife retorts with some version of see, I keep telling you, we can’t get a week’s groceries on this budget. I keep telling you I can’t afford this And that, we have to make do.

I’ve also heard repeatedly from elderly relatives how shocking grocery prices are for a few bags of food.

I know the data shows that wages have also increased dramatically. And I know the working class is always struggling to meet monthly budgets and pay all the bills. That was my family for a long time when I was a kid. For years I kept a running tally of the $$ in our cart because we had a very fixed budget that had to be stretched and plenty of times my mom made me double check my total and then had to go back through the cart and either put stuff back or trade down to a cheaper option. I learned basic division very early to help sort out the price per unit of different size packages and got a calculator for one Christmas (when a handheld calculator was still expensive, at least to us) to share with my mom not just for school (when we were still doing basic grade school multiplication tables and math so I didn’t even need a calculator) but also to help with the grocery tallies and for my mom balancing the checkbook before going grocery or clothes shopping.

But I’ve also been insulated from any pain of grocery costs for decades now, and I admit I seem too focused on macroeconomic data that suggests that wages and grocery costs are historically out of whack, but a lot of Americans are individually having a very different experience (maybe because the historic cost of housing is high now, which is pressuring everything else?).

Anyway, we’ve played political football with egg prices, which had external but seasonal inflationary pressures from bird flu resulting in wild price swings, but it seems there is something more serious afoot. And grocery prices seem to be a flashpoint for working class Americans.

But what can be done?

This story truly resonates with me. In the early years of our marriage, my wife stayed home and, much like the description in the article, carried an incredible load without any financial compensation. At the time, I was earning just enough to keep us afloat. If not for a few fortunate financial breaks, we likely would have faced significant debt and little to no savings.

I deeply empathize with Mr. Tait’s experience. I vividly remember times when we couldn’t afford anything beyond water when dining out, when our kids had to share a single Happy Meal, and when vacations meant staying with relatives in other states. Thankfully, over time, I was able to complete my degree and increase our household income. My wife began working as well, and together we’ve grown into a much more stable place. We’re not wealthy, but we’re fortunate enough to no longer have to debate every grocery purchase or delay medical care due to cost.

I’m incredibly grateful for where we are today. We were able to purchase our home when interest rates were still around 2%, before prices began to surge. Even our daughter was able to buy her home before rates climbed above 5%. We both have stable jobs and, for now, feel confident in our ability to weather economic challenges.

Still, I see the struggle in my children and in many people around us. One of my colleagues, who holds a green card and has brown skin, recently canceled a planned trip to Chicago out of concern for safety. He’s decided to stay in Atlanta instead. He also has friends from college who are currently stuck outside the country due to visa issues, uncertain about when, or if, they’ll be able to return.

It’s hard not to feel disheartened. This doesn’t feel like the America many of us grew up in. I struggle to understand how things have reached this point, and I’m surprised that more people haven’t reconsidered their views or demanded meaningful change. I truly hope our country can find a path to healing and recovery.

 

[nycfan]

Somewhat related to this topic:



—> https://www.wsj.com/personal-financ...2?st=aZr9k5&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

 

[nycfan]

Somewhat related to this topic:



—> https://www.wsj.com/personal-financ...2?st=aZr9k5&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

“… In Michigan, new mothers started receiving cash payments in January 2024, part of a program called Rx Kids that pays families using a mix of nonprofit money and federal funds administered by the state.

Last month, the American Journal of Public Health published initial findings from a study of the program in the city of Flint, where it first launched last year. Researchers found that pregnant mothers who received a one-time payment of $1,500, followed by additional $500 monthly payments during their child’s first year, fared better on several measurements of financial and emotional well-being than mothers who didn’t receive the cash.

The study, which has been peer reviewed, compared survey responses from 190 of the Flint mothers who received the cash in 2024, to the responses from 145 mothers from 2023 who didn’t get cash. All of the women gave birth at the same local hospital, which serves many low-income families, though there were no income restrictions for the program.

Researchers found a 7.7 percentage point drop in the portion of 2024 moms who owed money on their mortgage or back rent compared with their counterparts who received no cash.

Researchers also found a 12.5 percentage point drop in the portion of mothers who said they didn’t have enough of the kinds of food they wanted, compared with the moms who didn’t receive cash; and a 13 percentage point decline in postpartum depression.

“At its core, this paper reaffirms that perinatal poverty is treatable—with the right prescription at the right time,” said study leader Dr. Mona Hanna, a Flint pediatrician and associate dean for public health at Michigan State University’s College of Human Medicine.

Hanna, who helped uncover the Flint water crisis in 2015, said using unconditional cash payments worked because it cut out the bureaucratic tangle that can dissuade families from enrolling in government-assistance programs. The program has expanded beyond Flint to 10 other areas in Michigan, and has drawn bipartisan backing.…”

 

[nycfan]

“… In Michigan, new mothers started receiving cash payments in January 2024, part of a program called Rx Kids that pays families using a mix of nonprofit money and federal funds administered by the state.

Last month, the American Journal of Public Health published initial findings from a study of the program in the city of Flint, where it first launched last year. Researchers found that pregnant mothers who received a one-time payment of $1,500, followed by additional $500 monthly payments during their child’s first year, fared better on several measurements of financial and emotional well-being than mothers who didn’t receive the cash.

The study, which has been peer reviewed, compared survey responses from 190 of the Flint mothers who received the cash in 2024, to the responses from 145 mothers from 2023 who didn’t get cash. All of the women gave birth at the same local hospital, which serves many low-income families, though there were no income restrictions for the program.

Researchers found a 7.7 percentage point drop in the portion of 2024 moms who owed money on their mortgage or back rent compared with their counterparts who received no cash.

Researchers also found a 12.5 percentage point drop in the portion of mothers who said they didn’t have enough of the kinds of food they wanted, compared with the moms who didn’t receive cash; and a 13 percentage point decline in postpartum depression.

“At its core, this paper reaffirms that perinatal poverty is treatable—with the right prescription at the right time,” said study leader Dr. Mona Hanna, a Flint pediatrician and associate dean for public health at Michigan State University’s College of Human Medicine.

Hanna, who helped uncover the Flint water crisis in 2015, said using unconditional cash payments worked because it cut out the bureaucratic tangle that can dissuade families from enrolling in government-assistance programs. The program has expanded beyond Flint to 10 other areas in Michigan, and has drawn bipartisan backing.…”

“… Even as Michigan broadens its program, another recent, large study threw cold water on the premise of cash for poor families.

That study, called Baby’s First Years, showed little effect after years of cash payments to mothers. A thousand low-income mothers with newborns in New York City, New Orleans, Minneapolis/St. Paul and the Omaha metropolitan area were randomly given monthly installments of either $333 or $20 for the first six years of their child’s life.

Four years after the children were born, preliminary results didn’t show any substantive differences in developmental outcomes between the children whose mothers got the larger sums and those who got the far smaller ones.

The study, funded by the National Institutes of Health and private donations, looked at several metrics related to child development, including language, emotional problems and brain activity.…”

 

[farce©]

I believe I’ve heard Trump say that the large windmills make a noise that drives whales bat-shit crazy. MAGAts believe whatever he says.

In that case I am a whale and Trump is a windmill.

 

[nycfan]

 

[UNCatTech]

Somewhat related to this topic:



—> https://www.wsj.com/personal-financ...2?st=aZr9k5&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

I was really skeptical when I first read of this.

The more I read the more I believe this is a necessity, especially with AI on the horizon.

There have been studies and from what I recall in reading most of them were positive.

I recall from one article where they interviewed a man, who was involved in a study that gave him $500 a month for a period of time, how positive he was about it. During the study he had changed jobs and was doing much better making more money. He said that the only reason he was able to change jobs was because of the extra money, it gave him funds for clothes to interview, and money so he could take off work to interview. He said that without the extra money he couldn't afford to take a day off of work as it would be unpaid.

 

[UNCatTech]

Grocery prices increases are becoming more and more obvious.

 

[DiehardHeelFan]