Holding Trump accountable for his promises

[ChapelHillSooner]

True enough. The point I thought he was making was that the Trump Hispanic voters were more likely to be third generation or more white than more recent arrivals.

I'm not going to take that claim in the Politico article at face value, but if he's even 10% right, it shows that people who Trump specifically said he would fuck over were thinking he was the right guy for the presidency.

I understand. I wasn’t addressing his claims, just being snarky as indicated by the snippets I bolded.

 

[Calheel]

The fed has no control over that. The Fed only controls the money supply. Trump's inflation will not be monetary in nature. It's real. If he puts 15% tariffs on everything, then prices of those products will rise by 15% and the prices of competitive products will likely rise by almost that. The Fed can jack interest rates to 20% and it won't mean anything.

And if the deportations and tariffs create large supply shocks -- as I anticipate they will -- then again, there's nothing the Fed can do about that. Shortages lead to higher prices, and it doesn't matter if interest rates are 2% or 20%.

Anyway, if the Fed does tank the economy to somehow head off inflation, that would also tend to produce a blue wave (if we assume that people actually voted on the economy, of which I am skeptical). If unemployment goes from 3% to 10%, I'd say that would be a really tough environment for someone like Tillis.

I wonder if our old friend TylerKong the stagflation hawk will be back when stagflation sets in for real. Somehow I doubt it.

Yes, I could see a blue wave from a recession. But I don't buy 10% inflation (at least not for any prolonged period of time).

And I'm a little dubious of your prediction skills after this most recent election. Your prognostication skills are about as good as Mack Brown's coaching skills as a double digit favorite.