Hot Stove: UNC Basketball

[ChileG]

The big criticism of Ray Felton in his first two seasons was that he couldn’t shoot. In 2004-05 he could SHOOT!

In 2007-08, the criticism of Ty Lawson was he couldn’t shoot. In 2008-09, he was deadly.

i was making this exact point using same two players earlier today talking with a coworker.

 

[Zoo_View]

I think it's because his shooting in 2009 was so otherworldly. What you remember was "Lawson really improved his shooting for his junior year," which is true. What you forgot was that he improved from 37% to 47%. Normally a guy who jumps 10 points in 3pt % starts from a low baseline. In Ty's case, the jump was to something incredible (and probably a bit of a fluke and not sustainable -- he was probably a 41-42% college 3 shooter, which is excellent).

You’re correct.

Also, his improvement in 3FG percent meant opponents were truly fucked.

Lawson was so quick and athletic that he was only guard-able, MAYBE, if he shot mid-‘30’s from “3.”

Back to Felton…..lots of articles about him re-working his shot from ‘03-‘04 to ‘04-‘05.

In ‘02-‘03, Felton, May, McCants, Jawad, etc. were coached by one of UNC’s crappiest coaches and coaching staffs.

In ‘03-‘04 Roy Williams demanded that Raymond Felton become a true PG and not a shoot-first, ball-dominant PG. Felton struggled with that role in ‘03-‘04. UNC didn’t rapidly adapt to Roy Williams. Neither did Felton.

Felton’s shot and game in ‘04-‘05 weren’t the same as in ‘02-‘03.

 

[SnoopRob]

If EC could shoot, Bama wouldn't have sagged off him in the Sweet 16 game last year and we'd have gone on to play Clemson in the Elite 8, which I think we clearly would have won.

If EC could shoot, I'd put money on the bet that we'd have been in the final four last year.

He said he worked on it throughout the offseason, but I believe it was George Lynch who noticed that his reps weren't game situation reps. He did improve a little bit percentage wise, though, so I guess that was nice.

EC as a 3 point shooter was certainly disappointing his freshman year, including Alabama largely leaving him open in our S16 game with them.

But last year he was a 33.7% shooter from 3 (compared to 18.9% his freshman year), which is a decent percentage and much more improvement than "a little bit percentage wise". He put in the work between the two years to become a competent 3 point shooter at the college level.

You don't have to like EC, but the discussion works better when you don't lie about him.

 

[hedge]

I had forgotten Lawson was as hot as he was from the 3 in 2009. He was lower volume than Ellington or Green but if you're hitting at that clip it keeps defenses honest. All three of them shot better than 40% from the 3 in 2009. Hell, Marvin Williams shot better than 42% from the 3, although he was only averaging 1.2 attempts per game. Those were the days...

 

[hedge]

But last year he was a 33.7% shooter from 3

Danny Green was 29.6% his sophomore year...

 

[superrific]

EC as a 3 point shooter was certainly disappointing his freshman year, including Alabama largely leaving him open in our S16 game with them.

But last year he was a 33.7% shooter from 3 (compared to 18.9% his freshman year), which is a decent percentage and much more improvement than "a little bit percentage wise". He put in the work between the two years to become a competent 3 point shooter at the college level.

You don't have to like EC, but the discussion works better when you don't lie about him.

Last year, I had a discussion with (IIRC) the board bruin about Seth Trimble's shooting. He was saying that Seth should have been on the court against Bama because he was a 41% three point shooter. I said that was a small sample size, and that Trimble wasn't really a 41% shooter. We made a bet on how Trimble would fare this year. I said he would be worse than 36%. I didn't expect him to fall to 26%.

EC shot 33.7% on 86 attempts. That's a bigger sample size than sophomore Trimble, but still not enough to declare EC to be a good shooter. We'd have to see with a larger sample.

But the other point is that it's 33.7% on only 2 a game. Ideally our starting PG would be able to shoot more regularly than that. Two a game suggests that he's mostly shooting the wide open threes. Normally FG% goes down for a player with the number of attempts, for obvious reasons. If EC wants to be an actual threat from outside, he has much more work to do.

 

[TarSpiel]

EC as a 3 point shooter was certainly disappointing his freshman year, including Alabama largely leaving him open in our S16 game with them.

But last year he was a 33.7% shooter from 3 (compared to 18.9% his freshman year), which is a decent percentage and much more improvement than "a little bit percentage wise". He put in the work between the two years to become a competent 3 point shooter at the college level.

You don't have to like EC, but the discussion works better when you don't lie about him.

It also works better if you don't say that people who have different takes are "liars"

I didn't realize his improvement was that much. Good to know. Stop being an asshole.

 

[finesse]

EC as a 3 point shooter was certainly disappointing his freshman year, including Alabama largely leaving him open in our S16 game with them.

But last year he was a 33.7% shooter from 3 (compared to 18.9% his freshman year), which is a decent percentage and much more improvement than "a little bit percentage wise". He put in the work between the two years to become a competent 3 point shooter at the college level.

You don't have to like EC, but the discussion works better when you don't lie about him.

It was a big improvement. Otoh, he might have shot the lowest percentage of contested threes in the NCAA. Still, his offense was never a concern. His carelessness with the ball was and so was his tendency to get careless and sometimes cheap fouls. I had actually hoped that he'd stay and mature but his goodbye has left me content with him leaving.

 

[superrific]

I didn't realize his improvement was that much. Good to know. Stop being an asshole.

It wasn't that much. It's super-easy to improve off an 18% baseline.

 

[BluHevn]

 

[SnoopRob]

Last year, I had a discussion with (IIRC) the board bruin about Seth Trimble's shooting. He was saying that Seth should have been on the court against Bama because he was a 41% three point shooter. I said that was a small sample size, and that Trimble wasn't really a 41% shooter. We made a bet on how Trimble would fare this year. I said he would be worse than 36%. I didn't expect him to fall to 26%.

He shot 33.7% on 86 attempts. That's a bigger sample size than sophomore Trimble, but still not enough to declare EC to be a good shooter. We'd have to see with a larger sample.

But the other point is that it's 33.7% on only 2 a game. Ideally our starting PG would be able to shoot more regularly than that. Two a game suggests that he's mostly shooting the wide open threes. Normally FG% goes down for a player with the number of attempts, for obvious reasons. If EC wants to be an actual threat from outside, he has much more work to do.

EC is a pass-first PG, that's who he was when he was recruited and who he remains today.

If he's playing to his role, he's likely never going to be shooting 5+ 3s a game. (He's a lot like Kendall Marshall in that way. If his shooting is the focal point of your offense, something has likely gone wrong. KM shot 2.2 3PA per game his sophomore year, EC shot 2.3. You don't need EC or KM to be a huge 3 point threat to be successful, you just need them to be good enough that the defense has to take them seriously.)

I said EC was a competent shooter from 3 this last season and that is accurate.

You can certainly complain about EC not being a scoring PG if you like, and that would be reasonably accurate, but it's like complaining that your Blu-Ray player doesn't allow you to watch cable tv...correct, but also a bit silly.

 

[SnoopRob]

It also works better if you don't say that people who have different takes are "liars"

I didn't realize his improvement was that much. Good to know. Stop being an asshole.

It wasn't a different "take", you posted completely incorrect information in order to make an incorrect point about a former player you aren't happy with.

But I shouldn't have assumed you were lying, I should have left room that you are simply too lazy to learn correct information before posting. Stop being a dumbass.

 

[SnoopRob]

It was a big improvement. Otoh, he might have shot the lowest percentage of contested threes in the NCAA. Still, his offense was never a concern. His carelessness with the ball was and so was his tendency to get careless and sometimes cheap fouls. I had actually hoped that he'd stay and mature but his goodbye has left me content with him leaving.

I agree he has numerous areas of improvement...taking care of the ball, making the easy pass rather than a spectacular one, more controlled defensive effort, better emotional control.

I had hoped he'd stay, as well, but it doesn't appear that decision was ultimately his. Unless we pull a pretty great PG out of the portal, we've likely made the wrong choice on that front, but that decision isn't reversible at this point. I wish him well in Ann Arbor and hope he succeeds there.

 

[Zoo_View]

Yeah, this is infuriating. When my eldest son was 6, he was an amazing shooter. He could knock down elbow jumpers like they were nothing. This was how we trained:

a. I rebounded, and passed him the ball. He caught it and shot immediately.
b. I would put him on one elbow. Then I would pass the ball to the other elbow. IOW, simulating an off-ball screen to a catch-and-shoot. He would take a slight arc when moving from one elbow to another so he could catch the ball, square up and shoot in basically one fluid motion.

If I could have my 6 year old shooting game situation reps (as much as possible at that age), surely EC could find a way to do that.

My son caught the attention of some coaches, and he caught on with a travel team coached by a former NBA player. I used to joke that I wanted him to be good enough to play at Northwestern. I doubted, from probability and genes, that he would be good enough to play at a good DI school -- which would rule out a lot of quality educational institutions such as Stanford and Berkeley. Ivies don't give athletic scholarships. But Northwestern seemed like a realistic dream. Turned out not to be his dream for reasons, and that was fine. My goal for him at age 6 was to open as many doors for him so he could walk through the one he wanted.

But the point is: practicing game rep shooting literally starts at a very early age. The travel team used to do game rep shooting drills too.

I’m calling BS on a 6 year-old shooting well from “the elbow.”

Except, where was “the elbow?”

3-5 feet from the rim?

That you thought your 6 year-old might be good enough to play at a Big 10 school is comical…..

 

[superrific]

I’m calling BS on a 6 year-old shooting well from “the elbow.”

Except, where was “the elbow?”

3-5 feet from the rim?

That you thought your 6 year-old might be good enough to play at a Big 10 school is comical…..

1. Call BS if you want. I was there. He was shooting 17 footers. Why would I lie about this? Why would I lie about what my son was doing 12-13 years ago? There's a reason he caught the eye of the travel squad coaches. He used to draw something of a crowd when he was knocking down jumpers. OK, a crowd of like 5 people, but for a 6 year old that's not bad.

2. What is comical about dreaming that my son might play DI basketball? He's currently studying robotics, computer engineering and physics. He's never received a grade below an A his entire life -- not even an A-. That's the path he chose, not basketball. I helped open the door for that also -- when he was 4, we played the game Crazy Machines 2, which was an outstanding learning tool for developing an engineering approach to the world (not to mention learning some science).

Do you think I was saying he could play DI basketball while he was 6? That's a you problem, not a me problem.

 

[TarSpiel]

It wasn't a different "take", you posted completely incorrect information in order to make an incorrect point about a former player you aren't happy with.

But I shouldn't have assumed you were lying, I should have left room that you are simply too lazy to learn correct information before posting. Stop being a dumbass.

It was a throwaway comment at the end of recollection about what George Lynch observed watching him practice. The fact that you want to focus on that and call me a liar and a "lazy dumbass" because of it is...well, I dunno.

Yes, he improved, but defenses still disrespected him as a shooter, and so we had to compensate for that in other ways. *That* was the main point. And the main inference in the context of the back-and-forth of the conversation we were having was that if he himself had been better, he wouldn't have needed to call out his teammates like a puerile dickhead.

But you don't seem to have been able to follow that train of thought. Let me know if you need me to spoon feed you more of it.

 

[Rock]

 

[superrific]

EC is a pass-first PG, that's who he was when he was recruited and who he remains today.

If he's playing to his role, he's likely never going to be shooting 5+ 3s a game. (He's a lot like Kendall Marshall in that way. If his shooting is the focal point of your offense, something has likely gone wrong. KM shot 2.2 3PA per game his sophomore year, EC shot 2.3. You don't need EC or KM to be a huge 3 point threat to be successful, you just need them to be good enough that the defense has to take them seriously.)

I said EC was a competent shooter from 3 this last season and that is accurate.

You can certainly complain about EC not being a scoring PG if you like, and that would be reasonably accurate, but it's like complaining that your Blu-Ray player doesn't allow you to watch cable tv...correct, but also a bit silly.

There's a big gap between "huge three point threat" and "not a liability." Just as there's a big gap in being taken seriously like nobody bothers to get within 5 feet of him, and taken seriously like a guy who you have to D up. Maybe not distort your whole defense but more than staying within a few feet of him.

The game is also so much different today. One reason that KM wasn't shooting so much is that he was throwing to Zeller, Henson and Barnes. And a lot of those catches were traditional back to the basket plays because that was still a viable system back then.

In today's world, lots of teams play no post threats, and nobody plays two post threats on the court at the same time (unless they are also threats from everywhere, in which case they are just really good).

A better measure of three point facility than % on a small sample is the opposing defense's strategies. They know everything we know plus more.

 

[rodoheel]

EC as a 3 point shooter was certainly disappointing his freshman year, including Alabama largely leaving him open in our S16 game with them.

But last year he was a 33.7% shooter from 3 (compared to 18.9% his freshman year), which is a decent percentage and much more improvement than "a little bit percentage wise". He put in the work between the two years to become a competent 3 point shooter at the college level.

You don't have to like EC, but the discussion works better when you don't lie about him.

I think two things are true:

1. EC made a real and significant improvement as a shooter from his first to second year

2. He was still enough of a liability as a shooter that it consistently warped the way teams defended him, and us as a whole, because even with that improvement they were still more than willing to not only go under screens, but often largely disregard him as a perimeter threat

 

[Zoo_View]

1. Call BS if you want. I was there. He was shooting 17 footers. Why would I lie about this? Why would I lie about what my son was doing 12-13 years ago? There's a reason he caught the eye of the travel squad coaches. He used to draw something of a crowd when he was knocking down jumpers. OK, a crowd of like 5 people, but for a 6 year old that's not bad.

2. What is comical about dreaming that my son might play DI basketball? He's currently studying robotics, computer engineering and physics. He's never received a grade below an A his entire life -- not even an A-. That's the path he chose, not basketball. I helped open the door for that also -- when he was 4, we played the game Crazy Machines 2, which was an outstanding learning tool for developing an engineering approach to the world (not to mention learning some science).

Do you think I was saying he could play DI basketball while he was 6? That's a you problem, not a me problem.

Reading IS FUNDAMENTAL.

I haven’t a clue why you wrote what you wrote.

IIRC, you’ve written that you and your wife often have sex for HOURS AND HOURS…..that you are skilled at “pleasuring women.”

I don’t have a clue why you wrote that. NO CLUE WHATSOEVER.

I mean….no male has EVER EXAGGERATED his sexual prowess.

Again, I DOUBT your 6 year-old was draining “shot-after-shot” from the elbow day-after-day……even if the “elbow” was 3-feet from the rim. He’s 6.