Hot Stove: UNC Basketball

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Regarding EC being pushed out, is it possible they told him him a) we're going prioritize other starters, so no longer are going to have starter money for you, b) you can still stay and compete for the starting job with the high-paid guy we snag?
Even if that isn't what they said, then what's wrong w the premise that Elliot had a low floor/medium ceiling while also was a "negative leader" attitude-wise?
 
stankeylegjones said:
You got the idea. And, it should already be clear what the analytics say. They should deep diving into them weekly, if not more frequent than that. Shit. you see teams crunching numbers and getting that data to coaches and players in-game.
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Can you be more specific? How are analytics driving in-game decisions. Give me a scenario.

For that matter, how is it driving between-game decisions/actions in the state of the art (presumably an NBA team)? One reason it's great in baseball is the physical game itself is relatively static, so you can build up big #s of reps, large sample sizes of situations and choices that are either identical or nearly so. You can convert that into something like predictive analytics (sample sizes are still small compared to big data).

10 games deep into a college basketball season, with 3 new starters or whatever, what can you really learn besides raw stats and the eye test?
 
Geisterfahrer said:
Can you be more specific? How are analytics driving in-game decisions. Give me a scenario.

For that matter, how is it driving between-game decisions/actions in the state of the art (presumably an NBA team)? One reason it's great in baseball is the physical game itself is relatively static, so you can build up big #s of reps, large sample sizes of situations and choices that are either identical or nearly so. You can convert that into something like predictive analytics (sample sizes are still small compared to big data).

10 games deep into a college basketball season, with 3 new starters or whatever, what can you really learn besides raw stats and the eye test?
Click to expand...
I guess it's just a matter of time until an AI engine is built into this message board. ChatGPT sez:

1.​

  • Real-time matchup analysis uses predictive models to identify the most advantageous lineup combinations based on opponent tendencies and current game state.
  • Teams like the NBA’s Toronto Raptors and Boston Celtics use data to adjust rotations dynamically depending on efficiency ratings and fatigue metrics.

2.​

  • Models predict the expected points per possession (EPPP) based on shot type, location, and defender proximity.
  • Coaches use this to encourage higher-value shots (e.g., corner 3s, rim attempts) and discourage long 2-pointers unless efficiency is unusually high.

3.​

  • Teams use predictive tools to anticipate opponent play calls based on historical patterns and game situation (score, time, player personnel).
  • This can lead to real-time changes in defensive schemes (e.g., switching to a zone, double-teaming a hot hand).

4.​

  • Some models assist coaches with "when to call a timeout" by predicting momentum shifts and simulating impact on win probability.
5.
  • Load management tools track biomechanical and game data to predict when a player’s performance is likely to decline or when injury risk increases.
  • NBA teams use real-time wearable tech (like Catapult) that feeds into predictive dashboards during games.

 
Geisterfahrer said:
Can you be more specific? How are analytics driving in-game decisions. Give me a scenario.

For that matter, how is it driving between-game decisions/actions in the state of the art (presumably an NBA team)? One reason it's great in baseball is the physical game itself is relatively static, so you can build up big #s of reps, large sample sizes of situations and choices that are either identical or nearly so. You can convert that into something like predictive analytics (sample sizes are still small compared to big data).

10 games deep into a college basketball season, with 3 new starters or whatever, what can you really learn besides raw stats and the eye test?
Click to expand...
the-boneyard.com

Did Alabama steal signs to beat UNC?

Except from WP article. Sign stealing by players, coaches and staff members is common practice during college basketball and NBA games, though Alabama was afforded an unusual advantage Thursday. The Los Angeles venue hosted a doubleheader — Clemson beat Arizona before Alabama upset North...
the-boneyard.com the-boneyard.com
 

More from the robot: ​


1. Second Spectrum / SportVU Data​

  • These systems use player and ball tracking cameras to generate granular spatial and movement data.
  • Second Spectrum, the official analytics provider of the NBA, uses machine learning to tag every movement, shot, and play type in real time.
  • Allows for creation of player movement graphs, defensive tracking maps, and automated scouting reports.

2. Real-Time Win Probability Models​

  • These models update continuously during a game, allowing coaches to make decisions that optimize game management, e.g., fouling strategy, late-game play calls.
  • ESPN and FiveThirtyEight popularized public versions, but proprietary team models are more detailed.

3. Deep Learning & Player Tracking​

  • Deep neural networks are trained on millions of events to classify defensive schemes, predict pass locations, or suggest optimal play calls.
  • These models simulate the game multiple steps ahead, similar to how AlphaGo functions in board games.
 
Geisterfahrer said:
Can you be more specific? How are analytics driving in-game decisions. Give me a scenario.

For that matter, how is it driving between-game decisions/actions in the state of the art (presumably an NBA team)? One reason it's great in baseball is the physical game itself is relatively static, so you can build up big #s of reps, large sample sizes of situations and choices that are either identical or nearly so. You can convert that into something like predictive analytics (sample sizes are still small compared to big data).

10 games deep into a college basketball season, with 3 new starters or whatever, what can you really learn besides raw stats and the eye test?
Click to expand...
I have no clue, I'm not an analyst, nor a basketball coach at an elite program. However, I don't think it's crazy to assume those using analytics are using them because it helps.

Edit: I just saw your AI-bot responses. Makes sense to employ the data and models/predictions. Doesn't sound like HD/staff do.
 
stankeylegjones said:
You got the idea. And, it should already be clear what the analytics say. They should deep diving into them weekly, if not more frequent than that. Shit. you see teams crunching numbers and getting that data to coaches and players in-game.
Click to expand...
You have no idea what he meant by "deep dive". He may be talking about taking his director of analytics and meeting with NBA analytics departments to learn more about about what they do. You seem to always assume the lowest level of knowledge and ability from Carolina's staff.
 
BillOfRights said:
You have no idea what he meant by "deep dive". He may be talking about taking his director of analytics and meeting with NBA analytics departments to learn more about about what they do. You seem to always assume the lowest level of knowledge and ability from Carolina's staff.
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i don't believe that we have any sort of analytics staff at all let alone a director of analytics.

which is a huge problem.

eta: sounds like we have this: Conor Kerr is teaming up student statisticians with UNC’s varsity sports - College of Arts and Sciences

which is, imo, not nearly good enough for a program of our caliber.
 
GoHeelsweeeehoooo said:
I really have a bad feeling that we aren't going to do well this portal period
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I'm sure it is too early to worry but everyone is gunshy. I remember last year the IC staff was saying at this time that our NIL was competitive and wait until June before worrying. Turns out NIL was not so good and by June it really not looking good. Now it looks like the first real target by the staff is predicted to go elsewhere.
 
GoHeelsweeeehoooo said:
I really have a bad feeling that we aren't going to do well this portal period
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And if we don’t, the countdown clock to bye bye Hubert starts ticking. One more mediocre season of being on the bubble will be the final nail in the coffin. Striking out in the portal this go around will be the second to last nail.
 
We’re now so far from that great class of Rusty Clark, Dick Grubar, and Bill Bunting joining the L&M Boys and a little later the GREAT, GREAT, GREAT, GREAT Charles Scott.

Or a young player becoming a stud……a Steve Previs or Bill Chamberlain or Darrell Elston or Dudley Bradley or Jimmy “Boss” Black or someone like Tom Zaliagiris or Pete Chilcutt or Steve Hale or Shammond Williams or Danny “MFDG” Green.

I don’t care if UNC acquires a good team for ‘25-‘26.

I’ll watch some of the games….maybe……I’ll turn the radio on so that I hear games out in the yard……it’ll have to be a big game and well-played to pull me inside to watch……..I’ll pull for the Heels…..hope they beat d00k and ncsulol.

I’ll definitely go to lacrosse and soccer and field hockey and baseball games. Definitely. Follow and cheer.

I don’t really give a shit about UNC football or basketball anymore.
 
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