How will a Trump presidency affect you?

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Callatoroy said:
Increased, yes. Not every country in compliance. This is an easy win for trump so he gets to look tough. He may try to get the agreed upon % increased but again, I don't look at that as a bad thing.
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Also a possibility, the Euros could also call Trumps bluff. They have seen that the Russian threat is not what many feared and decide to tell Trump to fuck off and that Europe will decide its own defense.

Think there’s a 50/50 chance that NATO ends as we know it. The fly in the ointment is that the euros are still recovering economically from COVID. Not sure they have the fiscal capacity for a great defense spending expansion.

The US exiting NATO would make the isolationist wing of MAGA very happy.
 
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My wife works on mostly federally funded research studies at UNC. I'm mildly concerned about funding but I'm hoping her 19 years of experience will get her jobs on the ones that remain. I don't think either party is dumb enough to fuck with SS or Medicare and essentially piss off everybody. I'm not terribly concerned about what Trump will do policy wise because I think he mostly just wants the title of President and won't really do anything and then claim he did. I have some concern about what might happen with a unified government but it's hard to fuck me over without fucking over some of your own too.

I am somewhat concerned about him trying to remain in power, or create legislation that will erode democracy and keep his family in power. What I am mostly concerned about is the bravado, posturing, vindictiveness, ego and whatnot that could lead us into unnecessary and potentially disastrous conflicts. I truly hope he dies. I do not like Vance at all but I see him as mostly an opportunist who tried to piggyback himself into the most power he could get as soon as possible, and he succeeded. I do not see him as a threat to democracy and I don't think he's as right wing as he pretends to be right now.
 
Zoo_View said:
It’s the Project 2025/Heritage Foundation/Peter Thiel/Elon Musk types that scare me.

Trump’s an inattentive idiot who wants to be in power.

Musk, Thiel, etc. are fascists.
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My wife asked me if we would be better off if Trump just died. I said hell no. We don’t want Vance & Thiel at the helm.
 
LosPollosHermanos said:
Market did fine last time under Trump until Covid then it tanked and quickly recovered. Lack of regulation helps the market and I would think given his frequently misplaced priorities he will try to prop up the market. This is something I am not too concerned about. But anyone retiring in a year probably should have shifted mostly out of the market regardless of who is president.
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That’s mostly what I meant - regardless of president anyone that close to retirement should not have a big percentage of their assets in equities.

With that said: I don’t think Trump will actually do the mass tariffs he ran on, but if he does there is a chance it will drag the whole economy and market down.
 
LosPollosHermanos said:
My wife works on mostly federally funded research studies at UNC. I'm mildly concerned about funding but I'm hoping her 19 years of experience will get her jobs on the ones that remain. I don't think either party is dumb enough to fuck with SS or Medicare and essentially piss off everybody. I'm not terribly concerned about what Trump will do policy wise because I think he mostly just wants the title of President and won't really do anything and then claim he did. I have some concern about what might happen with a unified government but it's hard to fuck me over without fucking over some of your own too.

I am somewhat concerned about him trying to remain in power, or create legislation that will erode democracy and keep his family in power. What I am mostly concerned about is the bravado, posturing, vindictiveness, ego and whatnot that could lead us into unnecessary and potentially disastrous conflicts. I truly hope he dies. I do not like Vance at all but I see him as mostly an opportunist who tried to piggyback himself into the most power he could get as soon as possible, and he succeeded. I do not see him as a threat to democracy and I don't think he's as right wing as he pretends to be right now.
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Personally I think some of the people around Trump are far more dangerous than Trump himself. Trump personally doesn’t give two shits about Project 2025 but people like Stephen Miller and Vivek do, and they think they can persuade Trump to enact that agenda. Similarly Musk and Thiel will think that they can push Trump to do what they want, some of which overlaps with Project 2025 and some of which doesn’t. You’re going to get extremely crypto-friendly policy for sure, so I’m already bracing myself for that.

I’ve always said Trump has no real desire to be a Hitler figure himself in that he has no ambitions toward conquest or making every decision himself. His potential existential danger comes from being manipulator by the people who really do want a Hitter figure here, and from the fact that he will hollow out government institutions so much that they will collapse to debating effect when tested in a crisis.
 
LosPollosHermanos said:
Market did fine last time under Trump until Covid then it tanked and quickly recovered. Lack of regulation helps the market and I would think given his frequently misplaced priorities he will try to prop up the market. This is something I am not too concerned about. But anyone retiring in a year probably should have shifted mostly out of the market regardless of who is president.
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I retired in 2019. I keep 3-4 years of expected expenses in cash (or cash equivalents) and remain fully invested with the rest. The cash should get me through a down market and prevent me from having to sell at low prices for living expenses. But you need growth after you retire as well.
 
dukeman92 said:
My wife asked me if we would be better off if Trump just died. I said hell no. We don’t want Vance & Thiel at the helm.
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The best would be if he gets into a mental condition where they really consider the 25th... Near the end of his term

His people will be livid and the cult will be incensed but there won't be time to do much damage from them. But MAGAs would turn on Vance

They are going to get blown out in 4 years anyhow
 
rodoheel said:
That’s mostly what I meant - regardless of president anyone that close to retirement should not have a big percentage of their assets in equities.

With that said: I don’t think Trump will actually do the mass tariffs he ran on, but if he does there is a chance it will drag the whole economy and market down.
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His talk of tariffs is already costing Americans.
I recently bought a new home knowing at some point rates would drop and I would refinance.
Mortgage rates went up 18 basis points yesterday because Trump won. Rates are now higher than when I bought my home in February.
So the “will he actually do all the crazy, harmful things he ran on?” question itself has a negative impact.
 
aGDevil2k said:
The best would be if he gets into a mental condition where they really consider the 25th... Near the end of his term

His people will be livid and the cult will be incensed but there won't be time to do much damage from them. But MAGAs would turn on Vance

They are going to get blown out in 4 years anyhow
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I work in k12 education. The department of education is primarily there to
*raise the floor for underserved communities by providing funding and assistance where local funds fall short
*support efforts and put in accountability for equitable education for students with disabilities
*provide funding for career/technical education

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see how eliminating the dept of ed would serve the interests of oligarchs that want to increase their own power by maintaining a static working class with no chance for mobility.
 
Zoo_View said:
It’s the Project 2025/Heritage Foundation/Peter Thiel/Elon Musk types that scare me.

Trump’s an inattentive idiot who wants to be in power.

Musk, Thiel, etc. are fascists.
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Trump is also a guy who praises the adoration that Kim Jong Un receives from the North Korean people. To me that is a huge warning sign and tells me he. Has the potential to be a far more dangerous figure than what you are presenting.

He wants to be a Kim or a Putin. He idolizes them and respects the power those two exert over their people.

Yes, Project 2025 is a major problem but it is not Trump’s main goal. Trump wants absolute power and Putin like wealth and he will be able to achieve both now with a cabinet who takes a loyalty test to Trump himself and a court that has given him almost unlimited power.
 
I work with a good many Europeans, and one from the UK said yesterday they are already concerned about UK's trade environment if any of the tariffs go into affect. So its very concerning to them over there.
 
aGDevil2k said:
The best would be if he gets into a mental condition where they really consider the 25th... Near the end of his term

His people will be livid and the cult will be incensed but there won't be time to do much damage from them. But MAGAs would turn on Vance

They are going to get blown out in 4 years anyhow
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You assume we have an election in four years.
 
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dukeman92 said:
My wife asked me if we would be better off if Trump just died. I said hell no. We don’t want Vance & Thiel at the helm.
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Disagree

Vance is so horribly unlikeable that he would lose a ton of the swing support that voted for Trump. No charisma, no ability to connect.

They would go back to being the party of guys in suits who give all the money to Wall Street but without the cult leader who has them all convinced he’s fighting for you.
 
HeelInTheOzarks said:
Disagree

Vance is so horribly unlikeable that he would lose a ton of the swing support that voted for Trump. No charisma, no ability to connect.

They would go back to being the party of guys in suits who give all the money to Wall Street but without the cult leader who has them all convinced he’s fighting for you.
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He’s no more unlikeable than Trump. Trump is the singularly most unlikeable person I can imagine. He is repulsive in every way.
 
rodoheel said:
Personally I think some of the people around Trump are far more dangerous than Trump himself. Trump personally doesn’t give two shits about Project 2025 but people like Stephen Miller and Vivek do, and they think they can persuade Trump to enact that agenda. Similarly Musk and Thiel will think that they can push Trump to do what they want, some of which overlaps with Project 2025 and some of which doesn’t. You’re going to get extremely crypto-friendly policy for sure, so I’m already bracing myself for that.

I’ve always said Trump has no real desire to be a Hitler figure himself in that he has no ambitions toward conquest or making every decision himself. His potential existential danger comes from being manipulator by the people who really do want a Hitter figure here, and from the fact that he will hollow out government institutions so much that they will collapse to debating effect when tested in a crisis.
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Agree 100%. Trump only cares about staying out of prison and making more money for himelf. Everything he does and says is in service of these goals.

Policy does not matter. Kamala ran an excellent campaign (she far exceeded my expectations) and had very good populist policy positions that were described in ads and at rallies. Trump has ZERO policy positions (other than "build a wall" and now mass deportations). For 8 years, he has been a politician with no policy interest at all. Nothing. His party barely has an policy positions.

The election came down to 2 things in my view
1. Sexism
2. Perception is reality - this has always been true but even more so now with social media creating everyone's own reality/ their own truth.

Until the media landscape shifts or people figure out how much they are being manipulated online, I don't think it matters what kind of campaign Dems run. Nobody listens to policy. They vote based on their feelings.

I do think Dems have been damaged by the label of "woke." And the optics on some of Biden's actions have been terrible (student loan forgiveness, their inability to get out ahead of the totally predictable "migrant crime wave" stories. The ad with Kamala discussing gender affirming care had to have done some damage. The Dems continue to get hammered on these none issues and do nothing to rebutt them. We all know that on an individual policy basis people mostly agree with the Dem agenda, but that just doesn't translate to votes at this point in time.
 
I'm an educator in North Carolina so I am relieved to see that Josh Stein has prevailed. For my students that want to become teachers I am also very glad to see that Mo Green did as well.

I live in both #WNC and NYC though and I suspect that I'll spend more time up north moving forward but the end plan is the same as always...move to another country. I have long had that place picked out and have spent a good deal of my life there already and have many friends and connections there. My wife is down with that as well.

For a while I've been trying to talk my daughter into going to school in Spain (she's already done a summer program there in a place that we all enjoy -- Sitges). I'd like her to branch out. It wouldn't bother me if she left the US behind.

The world is a pretty despicable place at present. Over 2 million North Carolinians voted for Mark Robinson.
 
I am going to say it again because I think we all need to be warned.

Trump doesn’t really care about most policy positions except for those related to immigration and crime.

But Trump does care a lot about having an obedient population that is subservient to him. That is not something to dismiss.

It would not surprise me one bit if Trump tried to have the military take a loyalty pledge to him personally like Hitler did. I guarantee you if he did there would be Republican leaders who would argue that he is the commander in chief and so why wouldn’t they be loyal to him. We are already seeing that rhetoric with regards to high level executive branch positions.
 
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