Hubert Davis Catch-all

  • Thread starter Thread starter LeoBloom
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finesse said:
Probably less than that. There's 8 chances and probably well less than 100 teams to consider. Call it 96 and it's basically 12 to 1 that they get a top eight. That adds some windage for injuries and such.
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But we have fairly good ways to evaluate teams before the season starts (once the rosters are known).

I went back and looked at the last 10 seasons with an NCAAT on KenPom. If you were to choose a random team from his preseason top 4, you'd have a 57.5% chance of picking a team that gets a 1 or 2 seed. If you go with his preseason #1, he's seen 7 of 10 get a 1 or 2 seed.

It's not foolproof, but looking at advanced metrics would give you enough predictive advantage that if you were getting 12 to 1 odds you'd be smart to throw down some money.
 
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