Centerpiece
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I thought C-money was the shooting guard
Hubert Davis Catch-all
- Thread starter LeoBloom
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But we have fairly good ways to evaluate teams before the season starts (once the rosters are known).
I went back and looked at the last 10 seasons with an NCAAT on KenPom. If you were to choose a random team from his preseason top 4, you'd have a 57.5% chance of picking a team that gets a 1 or 2 seed. If you go with his preseason #1, he's seen 7 of 10 get a 1 or 2 seed.
It's not foolproof, but looking at advanced metrics would give you enough predictive advantage that if you were getting 12 to 1 odds you'd be smart to throw down some money.
GoHeelsweeeehoooo
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Anyone really surprised that state got demolished the very next game after beating us?
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Man you may be an expert in bridge probability but that is just completely and totally wrong when applied to college sports. Your math is based on the assumption that each of 96 teams has an exactly equal shot of being a top 2 seed next season. Not only is that not the case, in fact the reality is that there are a handful of teams that have massively greater chances of being a top 2 seed next year, or any year, than most of those 96 teams. That's because the top few programs have massive advantages in resources and talent, which is why the same teams are frequently repeating as top 2 seeds. Ken Pomeroy or anyone else who really studies this stuff will tell you that historical results, especially over recent seasons, are a huge factor in predicting how a team is likely to do in the coming season.
So even if we knew nothing right now about who was going to be on Duke's team next year, their odds of being a top 2 seed would absolutely be far higher than 12 to 1. But in fact we do know something about their team next season - Duke already has three top 10 recruits committed. And they're a virtual lock to add more elite talent in the portal. Elite talent doesn't guarantee results, but it is a huge advantage. Which means the idea that sitting here today, they have the same odds of being a top 2 seed as, like, South Carolina and Wake Forest and Northwestern and Colorado State, is just completely detached from reality.
And yet despite dook's talent advantage over UNC and every other college based on past cheating and deep pockets l, Hubert is 5-6 against them and 1-0 this year. Thankfully we have the better coach despite the scheyer slurp on here.
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I love that we keep beating Duke. it's great. I love beating Duke. But I am not satisfied with watching Duke sprint past us as a program just because we beat them with lesser talent sometimes. I want to be a better program than them. I don't want to always have lesser talent than them. Why are some of you seemingly willing to settle for letting them be the superior program as long as beat them close to half the time?
Who is settling? I just don't think firing Hubert who, in my view, is growing as a coach in every measure is a magic bullet. I don't. I think it would be messy, alienate a lot of fans, and not sure the coaches expressing interest would be stellar. I could be wrong but I am not settling for anything.
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I'm pretty much where you are on the state of UNC basketball. The reality is that HD is a pretty good coach but not a great (so far) one. Thus, the PTB are not going to fire him since he's part of the family. My hope is that Turner and the NIL check writers can find HD talent that approaches dook and other top teams to overcome HD's coaching deficiencies. My further hope is that Caleb's success and stardom will undo over a decade's narrative that UNC doesn't spotlight one and doners and doesn't get guys to the NBA after one season. We already see that he's landed two five stars for next year so perhaps we're already seeing dividends. Hopefully, this will lead to us landing additional dook like recruiting classes. Henri's stardom also might help us land portal talent.
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I don't think firing Hubert is a "magic bullet." Hiring a new coach is never a guarantee of anything. Pending the rest of this season - which could well be good enough that I would agree with keeping him on - my concern is simply that we look to be a lower-upside program under Hubert than the program I would like us to be.
I simply will not accept that Duke should be a better program than us, especially in a year like this year when we know the amount of resources spent on the roster is not the issue. Five years of Hubert make me question whether we can really be a consistent top 10/15 team, year in and year out, under Hubert. And being in year five, when you say he is "growing as a coach," and we have a very expensive roster, and we have the most talented player we've had in a decade or more, and we had a great win over Duke, and we're still staring down a 5 or 6 seed - it's just hard, for me, to be confident that we can consistently be even better than we are this year.
Also, I have now heard multiple people say that firing Hubert will "alienate a lot of fans." I'm just not convinced that's true at all. I think the vast majority of the fan base wants to win, and wants to win more than we have been recently. Are you seriously going to stop being a UNC fan, or stop supporting the program, if we fire Hubert? Because you don't think giving him five years is enough time?
Heelsandeers
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Yes, it was a very rough estimate. I was probably generous. Unless Duke is the clear number one, their odds drop dramatically with everyone above them and at an increasing rate.
I no longer think year 1 2 3 or 4 is relevant. I see a coach coming off a masterful performance coaching. We have 2 great recruits coming in and there is no reason we cannot have a top 10 team or better next year. We have the foundation. IOW I am looking forward. My fandom.has been tested by nil, portal, etc. That said I have season football and bball tix and I am generous beyond my means. But if this team ends up 24,-7 plays for no. 2 seed and Hubert were fired, all things considered, I might think hard on some things. I gree up worshipping dean and I have zero doubt that goes against all he stood for. Zero.
We are tied for 4th place, not 3rd. If we can win everything but the Duke game that would be one hell of a finish to the regular season and Hubert would deserve some major praise. We would slide into the 4/5 spot with a potential rematch with NCSU in the quarters. Would be a nice revenge match...but would also mean we'd play Duke a 3rd time if we win.
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You were probably generous? Huh? You are completely and utterly wrong if you think the chances of Duke being a top 2 seed next year are anywhere near as low as 8.5% (1 in 12), much less even lower. Your math is based on the ludicrous assumption that Duke has the same odds as 95 other teams as being a top 2 seed next year. My guess is that history would show you that a team that is a 1 seed in the current season, which Duke appears likely to do for the second straight year, probably has at least a 25% chance, probably more, of being a 1 or 2 seed the next season based on that information alone. And when you add in that Duke already has three top 10 players committed for next year the odds only go up from there.
Again, you are trying to apply playing card odds to basketball. It's just not working at all.
I have seen HD's teams repeat mistakes, lack fundamentals and fail to adjust this past 3 years so often that I am beginning to suspect that some of these better decisions recently are being made by his assistant coaches (e.g., Marcus, Lebo, etc.). I feel bad suspecting that, and even if true he is the head coach so it all rests with him so he should get some credit, right? Does that not reflect growth as a head coach?
CRHeel94
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At this point in the race, Scheyer has proven to be a much better coach than HD.
Started out from a similar position, first-time HCs, taking over for legends, former players (shooting guards at that). The Duke recruiting machine was in a better position than UNC which gave Scheyer some advantages.
I'm more impressed with the job they've done this year. Doesn't mean they will win it all, but to replace 5 starters and be in the spot where they are is impressive.
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Consistently being a top 4 seed means consistently being a top 15 team. The fact that you would say it doesn't matter what seed we get at all is telling. You are settling. Call it whatever you want, but you are settling for a lesser program when you characterize a season where we get a 5 or 6 seed, in other words a fringe top 25 team, as an all-around success.
Also UNC is not going to get a 2 seed this year, so your last hypothetical is irrelevant. As for what Dean would stand for - Dean stood for excellence. I have a hard time imagining he would want us to keep Hubert forever even if it means no longer being a great program. In Dean's last 19 years (the only years he coached when the NCAAT was seeded) we were a 3 seed or better 16 out of 19 seasons, and the other three seasons we were a 4, 6, and 8. Personally I don't think it's reasonable to think that UNC can get back to a point where we get a top 3 seed over 80% of the time, but I do think we can be substantially better than we have been recently, and other programs are proving it's possible in the NIL/portal era.
It's just bizarre to me that someone who idolized Dean would not understand that among his other great attributes, a big part of what made him who he was was his consistent. elite success. Whatever you think is special about UNC basketball, being an elite college program has to be very close to the top of the list. If we settle for no longer being an elite program, then whatever else we think is special will fade away over time.
I'll confess that I owe you an apology. I did some research and you are much closer than me. The numbers are so much smaller, they are both more predictable and more easily influenced. Top 5 teams preseason do it around 50+% of the time. It wouldn't have been as stupid a bet as I insisted in some cases at some time. It would still be stupid with a lesser team at any time and almost any team now until rosters are assured.
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Scheyer has done a nice job BUT, when he took over from K, K had already established a 15 yr + pipeline of recruiting top freshman talent and placing them in the NBA. Dook embraced the one and done 5* talent (including paying players and dealing with player agents) years before he took over (which he was a part of) allowing Scheyer to hit the ground running.
Meanwhile, Roy and our staff clung to the Carolina Way, refusing to deal with the players' agents, handlers and AAU coaches. Roy was such a good coach that he could recruit 20-60 range talent and coach them up after multiple years in the program. That system, as we know, is gone with the wind.