Hubert Davis Catch-all

[superrific]

It's worth remembering that Roy's final seasons also sucked. His last, we barely made the tournament and lost in the first round. The year before that was an utter disaster with a losing record.

The UNC that HD inherited was not the UNC of old. The brand was already losing its luster. We had some great team success for three seasons in a row, but we didn't have star players getting awards, high NBA draft picks, etc. Those are the sorts of things that make a program a true "blue blood.'

 

[heelinhell]

Kansas was on probation when Roy took over the program. While Hubert didn’t exactly walk into UNC at peak form back in 2021, it’s pretty debatable that it was somehow a worse situation than taking over a program facing sanctions and a postseason ban like Roy had to deal with in his first season.

I’d also push back that their accomplishments are even remotely comparable. After Roy’s first season with the postseason ban, his next 4 seasons were 2 seed, 3 seed, 1 seed, 2 seed, with 3 regular season titles, 2 final fours, and a conference tournament title.

His next 3 years he was ousted in the round of 32 twice and finished 2nd in the NCAAT

So I think if you asked Roy today, he would take over a blueblood program and suffer a 1 year probation or live with the chaos Hubie has to deal with in this brave new world, what would his answer be ?

oh wait... He gladly took over a blueblood program on probation in those halcyon days that continued at UNC until those days were no more and then he said I ain't dealing with this new world of chaos so I'm gonna hand this off to Hubie and polish my golf game

 

[4thgenheel]

The absolute majority of folks - including ones who were not excited when HD was named as head coach - were supportive of him until sometime last season when it became clear we weren’t a terribly good team. While there were folks actively against HD from the very beginning, it was a small percentage of the fan base for the first 3.5 seasons or so until the performance on the court was repeatedly below the historic Carolina standard.

a lot of people wanted him gone after the fiasco that was 2023, long before our poor performance last season.

i am not one of those people but i know that many of them exist because i defended HD rigorously against them during and after that season.

 

[SnoopRob]

You are omitting a couple of critical seasons there between when that was true and he took over.

HD was left a team that formed the nucleus that made the NC game. What HD inherited was perfectly fine.

If the situation was so dire that we needed a coach to make drastic improvements, then HD was the wrong choice from the beginning and the only way we can rectify that error now is to move on to a coach who can now make those improvements.

 

[Icky Mettle]

What types of programs would hire Hubert tomorrow?

Cincinnati?

 

[heelinhell]

HD was left a team that formed the nucleus that made the NC game. What HD inherited was perfectly fine.

If the situation was so dire that we needed a coach to make drastic improvements, then HD was the wrong choice from the beginning and the only way we can rectify that error now is to move on to a coach who can now make those improvements.

You are talking about the perfrectly fine nucleus that led us to a 18-11 record and a 2nd round loss in the NCAAT ?

 

[finesse]

HD was left a team that formed the nucleus that made the NC game. What HD inherited was perfectly fine.

If the situation was so dire that we needed a coach to make drastic improvements, then HD was the wrong choice from the beginning and the only way we can rectify that error now is to move on to a coach who can now make those improvements.

The perception of a program past its prime is part of what he inherited. Don't act like that didn't matter in the eyes of recruits.

 

[SnoopRob]

You are talking about the perfrectly fine nucleus that led us to a 18-11 record and a 2nd round loss in the NCAAT ?

Well, they were a year older and more experienced, plus roles were a bit better defined via off-season movement.

The team that HD got from Roy was more talented than the vast majority of NCAA teams, even at the P4 level.

 

[SnoopRob]

The perception of a program past its prime is part of what he inherited. Don't act like that didn't matter in the eyes of recruits.

The perception was a top 3 historic program less than 5 years removed from an NC that had had a couple of down years.

I can recognize that he didn't take over a finely-tuned machine, but let's not pretend we were fucking UCLA or Indiana, either. UNC in 2021 (or 2026) offers a brand, resources, facilities, and recruiting base that very few other programs can dream about.

 

[finesse]

Well, they were a year older and more experienced, plus roles were a bit better defined via off-season movement.

The team that HD got from Roy was more talented than the vast majority of NCAA teams, even at the P4 level.

True but this was one of those cases where the whole was seldom equal to its parts and almost never greater. Manek was the catalyst that let it happen one year.

 

[mpaer]

True but this was one of those cases where the whole was seldom equal to its parts and almost never greater. Manek was the catalyst that let it happen one year.

We have had so many weird "recruiting doubles " that did not work the last several years
Kessler, Sharp-RJ, Caleb-Cadeu-Jackson
Some bad Karma

 

[SnoopRob]

A coach his age with his time under Roy as an assistant, his record as a head coach, his recognition from his time on TV and relationships there and relative youth? My guess is , if he wanted to coach, he'd have a larger range of decent choices that we would. Disagree with me if you want but why would you try to paint him as undesirable by anybody else's standards. I don't think anybody would say he was a top ten coach right now but he's not a lot below that, imo.

I think this underscores the difference in how HD is viewed by his supporters and his critics.

If HD were available tomorrow and willing to consider any and all offers, I'd be surprised if he got another P4 offer and, if he did, I imagine it'd be a program that is perennially near the bottom of its conference.

I would say that he's somewhere, at best, in the top 30-50 coaches in D1 CBB and likely closer to the end of that range than the beginning.

And the point of saying that isn't to "paint him as undesirable", it's to provide an accurate portrait of how I think he stacks up vis-a-vis other D1 & P4 coaches (imho).

 

[heelinhell]

Well, they were a year older and more experienced, plus roles were a bit better defined via off-season movement.

The team that HD got from Roy was more talented than the vast majority of NCAA teams, even at the P4 level.

So is it your contention that Hubie took us to the NC championship because Roy left Hubie with so much talent that finished 18-11 the year before ? If so then Roy should have stuck around one more year and led us to a national championship. You think Roy thought that he had this national championship team coming back but he decided to retire and let Hubie bring the national championship back home to Chapel Hill ?

Yeah...um no

 

[SnoopRob]

True but this was one of those cases where the whole was seldom equal to its parts and almost never greater. Manek was the catalyst that let it happen one year.

A significant common denominator among HD teams is that the "whole is seldom equal to its parts and almost never greater".

That group of players had a lot of talent & potential and, sadly, only realized it for half a season out of 2.

 

[Heelsandeers]

 

[SnoopRob]

So is it your contention that Hubie took us to the NC championship because Roy left Hubie with so much talent that finished 18-11 the year before ? If so then Roy should have stuck around one more year and led us to a national championship. You think Roy thought that he had this national championship team coming back but he decided to retire and let Hubie bring the national championship back home to Chapel Hill ?

Yeah...um no

My contention is that the team had the core talent that made the national championship game.

There's a lot of luck in getting to an NC game and UNC seemingly used up a lot of it to have the success they did in 2022.

Was it predictable that team would make the NC game that season? No, there was a lot of uncertainty around that team, but it certainly had high-recruited talent at its core.

(I also think there's an interesting hypothesis that a lot of Carolina fans sold their souls to the devil for the 2 wins over K that year and now we're reaping the results over the following 4 seasons. )

 

[Icky Mettle]

In comparing Hubert’s five years to others, I’m going to break it up into individual seasons and compare to seasons over the past 40 years under other coaches.

2022: This was a pretty unique season that’s hard to compare. We had a bit of a rough start and then came on strong at the end for a very strong finish. It wasn’t as good overall as 1997, a year we started out rough and then got things going to win 16 straight on the way to the Final Four. And it was better than 2000, when we weren’t totally sure of whether we’d make the NCAAT as of Selection Sunday but went on to make an unexpected Final Four run. While I cannot come up with one season to compare, I’ll say it was kind of like if 1997 and 2000 had a baby.

2023: The season that comes closest might be 2010. High expectations at the beginning after a strong finish the previous season, but failed to make the NCAAT. 2023 was a little better relatively speaking, but expectations were a little higher. We also didn’t have all the injuries the 2010 team had. 2003 also comes to mind, but preseason expectations weren’t nearly as high after 2002 and knowing we would rely on a lot of freshmen at a time that wasn’t the norm. The young talent we had that we expected to return also gave us optimism for the future. So 2010 it is.

2024: A few seasons come to mind, but this most reminded me of 2019. Very similar records, ACC regular season champions, lost in the ACCT championship, lost in the Sweet 16, and both were very good teams but with little room for error.

2025: The closest I can come up with here is 2021. A bubble team that lost in the round of 64. If I were to combine two seasons, it might be like 2000’s regular season with 1999’s NCAAT. But I’ll stick with 2021.

I’ll wait until after the NCAAT to judge this season and compare it to others.

So thus far Hubert has given us seasons comparable to 1997 and 2000’s baby, 2010, 2019, and 2021.

 

[Peppers49]

His next 3 years he was ousted in the round of 32 twice and finished 2nd in the NCAAT

So I think if you asked Roy today, he would take over a blueblood program and suffer a 1 year probation or live with the chaos Hubie has to deal with in this brave new world, what would his answer be ?

oh wait... He gladly took over a blueblood program on probation in those halcyon days that continued at UNC until those days were no more and then he said I ain't dealing with this new world of chaos so I'm gonna hand this off to Hubie and polish my golf game

It’s all relative. Yes, the nature of the job has gotten significantly more complicated in the last 5 years, but it’s also something that every single coach/program in the country has to deal with.

 

[heelinhell]

He would be more desirable than Doherty, who got FAU and SMU. So I’d say Hubert could get a mid-major or a low major job, maybe a Georgia or Vanderbilt level - something like that.

It’s all relative. Yes, the nature of the job has gotten significantly more complicated in the last 5 years, but it’s also something that every single coach/program in the country has to deal with.

 

[SnoopRob]

So what about a comparison with Roy's 1st 4 years at Kansas ? Would that be a useless comparison ,as well ?

Given that we're almost through 5 years of HD and we should compare to 5 years of Roy at KU...we can make that comparison.

Roy at KU
Starting Point: Takes over team coming off national championship, but on probation due to prior coach
Year 1: 19-12, 6-8; no postseason (probation); ranked 6/18 weeks (range: 16-20, final: UR)
Year 2: 30-5, 11-3; NCAAT - 2 seed, R32; ranked 16/18 weeks (range: 1-5, final: 5)
Year 3: 27-8, 10-4; conference regular season champs, NCAAT - 3 seed, NC game; ranked 7/17 weeks (range: 8-24, final: 12)
Year 4: 27-5, 11-3; conference regular season & tournament champs; NCAAT - 1 seed, R32; ranked 18/18 weeks (range: 2-12, final: 2)
Year 5: 29-7, 11-3; conference regular season champs; NCAAT - 2 seed, F4; ranked 18/18 weeks (range: 2-9, final: 9)

HD at Carolina
Starting Point: Takes over team coming off a couple of down years with an 18-11 season, talented but young roster
Year 1: 29-10, 15-5; NCAAT - 8 seed, NC game; ranked 3/19 weeks (range: 18-25, final: UR)
Year 2: 20-13, 11-9; no post season (declined NIT bid); ranked 5/19 weeks (range: 1-25, final: UR)
Year 3: 29-8, 17-3; conference regular season champs; NCAAT - 1 seed, S16; ranked 21/21 weeks (range: 3-20, final: 7)
Year 4: 23-14, 13-7; NCAAT - 11 seed, R64; ranked 5/21 weeks (range: 9-20, final: UR)
Year 5: 24-8, 12-6; NCAAT - TBD; ranked 18/18 weeks (range: 11-25, current: 19)

Roy has the clearly superior results here; taking over a team on probation and largely getting top 10 results after the first year compared to a team coming off a couple of down years that has had very inconsistent results over the next 5 seasons.