Immigration Issues and Reform

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Thanks CFord. I've learned a bunch from an issue I didn't understand nearly as much. Appreciate all the data and viewpoints, super helpful. Would still appreciate any contrasting data that says it's an issue we should be more worried about.
 
lightbluenc said:
Thanks CFord. I've learned a bunch from an issue I didn't understand nearly as much. Appreciate all the data and viewpoints, super helpful. Would still appreciate any contrasting data that says it's an issue we should be more worried about.
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Stopping Fentanyl at the Border Won’t Work. We Must Reimagine Drug Law Enforcement​

Law enforcement should fight crime, violence, and corruption and not pretend its job is to shrink the illicit drug supply enough to prevent its use

www.scientificamerican.com

Stopping Fentanyl at the Border Won't Work. We Must Reimagine Drug Law Enforcement

Law enforcement should fight crime, violence, and corruption and not pretend its job is to shrink the illicit drug supply enough to prevent its use
www.scientificamerican.com www.scientificamerican.com
 
HeelYeah2012 said:
Another reason this issue is personal to me is that I had a childhood friend who died from fentanyl overdose last summer. The fentanyl issue is closely related to illegal immigration, although not exactly the same issue. See below.
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You must not have cared for that friend very much if your reaction to his death was more of your partisan politics.
 
Hey CFord, I appreciate the facts you're bringing here. But maybe 10 links or so proves the point? A lot of the articles you are posting are duplicative. This thread has inflated quicker than the universe during the Big Bang.
 
superrific said:
Hey CFord, I appreciate the facts you're bringing here. But maybe 10 links or so proves the point? A lot of the articles you are posting are duplicative. This thread has inflated quicker than the universe during the Big Bang.
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You got it! Sorry about that.
 
superrific said:
You must not have cared for that friend very much if your reaction to his death was more of your partisan politics.
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Not sure if this is fair to say he didn't care, because he clearly does care, which is why he's trying to get some answers. If a year later he's trying to find a reasons for it then I think that's perfectly acceptable to search for reasons.

Now clearly the data proves that it doesn't correlate, but I'm glad he brought it up, and we can learn from it. And I hope there's some peace for you and your friend HY12.
 
So if we take it at face value that 86% of the fentanyl is brought in by US citizens….that means the remaining 14% is brought in by illegal immigrants.

And remind me again what percentage of the US population is made up of illegal immigrants? It’s nowhere near 14%.

If we say there are 11,000,000 illegal immigrants in the country and there are about 333,000,000 total people in the country, that means about 3.3% of the population is here illegally. And they’re bringing in 14% of the fentanyl, but supposedly it’s not an issue that they’re bringing fentanyl into the country at a rate that is 5x the rate of US citizens?

Yeah, miss me with that….
 
lightbluenc said:
Not sure if this is fair to say he didn't care, because he clearly does care, which is why he's trying to get some answers. If a year later he's trying to find a reasons for it then I think that's perfectly acceptable to search for reasons.

Now clearly the data proves that it doesn't correlate, but I'm glad he brought it up, and we can learn from it. And I hope there's some peace for you and your friend HY12.
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"Trying to get some answers"? We talking about the same guy here? HY2012?

I hope he reads some of CFord's links and then comes to a better understanding of what happened. Right now, he just seems to be in the "blame foreigners" mode he's usually in.
 
HeelYeah2012 said:
So if we take it at face value that 86% of the fentanyl is brought in by US citizens….that means the remaining 14% is brought in by illegal immigrants.

And remind me again what percentage of the US population is made up of illegal immigrants? It’s nowhere near 14%.

If we say there are 11,000,000 illegal immigrants in the country and there are about 333,000,000 total people in the country, that means about 3.3% of the population is here illegally. And they’re bringing in 14% of the fentanyl, but supposedly it’s not an issue that they’re bringing fentanyl into the country at a rate that is 5x the rate of US citizens?

Yeah, miss me with that….
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But you can't do it with the entire population can you? Including children?

Wouldn't you need to do it with the percentage of people that cross the border? Like you can't include me in that because I've never crossed the US - Mexican border?

Or am I wrong here?
 
HeelYeah2012 said:
So if we take it at face value that 86% of the fentanyl is brought in by US citizens….that means the remaining 14% is brought in by illegal immigrants.

And remind me again what percentage of the US population is made up of illegal immigrants? It’s nowhere near 14%.

If we say there are 11,000,000 illegal immigrants in the country and there are about 333,000,000 total people in the country, that means about 3.3% of the population is here illegally. And they’re bringing in 14% of the fentanyl, but supposedly it’s not an issue that they’re bringing fentanyl into the country at a rate that is 5x the rate of US citizens?

Yeah, miss me with that….
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There are more categories of people than "citizens" and "illegal immigrants." I wouldn't think I would have to say that but here we are.

Plus, the statistic was not about fentanyl volume, but rather fentanyl traffickers.

Covid gave us a natural experiment. Migration across the border slowed way down. According to your theory, fentanyl should have become scarcer. In fact, the opposite happened. Fentanyl use and availability went way up. Hmm.
 
superrific said:
"Trying to get some answers"? We talking about the same guy here? HY2012?

I hope he reads some of CFord's links and then comes to a better understanding of what happened. Right now, he just seems to be in the "blame foreigners" mode he's usually in.
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I know what you're saying yeah. But if I'm being as honest as unbiased as I can be, he's trying to find answers for his friends death, and if part of that is figuring out answers for what that could or could not be, then I think he's learning and trying.
 
lightbluenc said:
But you can't do it with the entire population can you? Including children?

Wouldn't you need to do it with the percentage of people that cross the border? Like you can't include me in that because I've never crossed the US - Mexican border?

Or am I wrong here?
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The 86% figure is a little weak to begin with because that’s people who were sentenced for fentanyl trafficking, which in many cases are the people the cartel is using to smuggle the drugs and not the people ultimately responsible for it (the cartel).

But if 14% of the people arrested for this are non-citizens, that doesn’t make the point some people evidently think it does. That’s still a way outsized percentage.
 
superrific said:
There are more categories of people than "citizens" and "illegal immigrants." I wouldn't think I would have to say that but here we are.

Plus, the statistic was not about fentanyl volume, but rather fentanyl traffickers.

Covid gave us a natural experiment. Migration across the border slowed way down. According to your theory, fentanyl should have become scarcer. In fact, the opposite happened. Fentanyl use and availability went way up. Hmm.
Click to expand...
Let’s think about that for just a sec. Hmm, why would drug use in general have gone way up during covid? Oh yeah, because depression skyrocketed throughout the country as half the people lost their damn minds - keeping kids out of school, adults out of work, shutting down small businesses, etc.
 
The problems here for any Republicans trying to make an argument about immigration is that they can't keep any consistency in their arguments.

So the border is such an existential crisis that must be dealt with "immediately if not sooner" (thanks for that new phrase, Trump!), and we get a comprehensive border security package that is 1. brought to the table by a Republican Senator in a deep red Republican state somewhat near-ish to the border, 2. is the old pre-MAGA Republican Party's utter wet dream for how tough it is, and 3. required the Democrats to make concessions on virtually everything in the bill that would have been extremely unpopular with the progressive flank of their party. And yet the current Republican nominee for President scuttled it? Why?

Also, the fentanyl crisis is such an existential crisis that must be dealt with "immediately if not sooner", but almost 90% of fentanyl that comes into the United States arrives via U.S. citizen, but because roughly 10% of fentanyl arrives via undocumented immigrant, we need to round up and mass deport 10M+ immigrants who form the backbone of our service, agriculture, and manufacturing economy, instead of treat the actual problem of legal U.S. citizens working as drug mules for cartels?

How does any of that make sense? Hint: it doesn't, and it's why the American electorate keeps putting its foot in the GOP's ass when the time comes to go to the ballot box, because none of their policy arguments have congruency or make any sense to anyone who doesn't guzzle right wing media by the ballsack-full.
 
HeelYeah2012 said:
The 86% figure is a little weak to begin with because that’s people who were sentenced for fentanyl trafficking, which in many cases are the people the cartel is using to smuggle the drugs and not the people ultimately responsible for it (the cartel).

But if 14% of the people arrested for this are non-citizens, that doesn’t make the point some people evidently think it does. That’s still a way outsized percentage.
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“Data show the Trump administration’s decision to close U.S. ports of entry to nonessential traffic during the Covid-19 pandemic in March 2020 had the consequence of accelerating drug traffickers’ shift to fentanyl, a more potent drug than heroin, which helped lead to an increase in drug overdose deaths.”

www.forbes.com

Synthetic Opioid Overdose Deaths Soared While Trump Was President

Overdose deaths from synthetic opioids soared when Trump was president, raising issues about efforts to blame Biden border policies.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com
 
lightbluenc said:
But you can't do it with the entire population can you? Including children?

Wouldn't you need to do it with the percentage of people that cross the border? Like you can't include me in that because I've never crossed the US - Mexican border?

Or am I wrong here?
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If you are looking to compare rates, then you are correct.

The other important issue is: what would happen to fentanyl volume if we somehow eliminated all entry of non-citizens? The answer is fairly obviously nothing: if most of the drug runners now are citizens, then they would surely recruit more citizens to run drugs. Or use larger shipments and fewer runners. Or any number of strategies. What won't happen is the drug cartels giving up and saying, "eh, a small % of our workforce has been taken from us. Let's just quit and take our winnings."
 
CFordUNC said:
The problems here for any Republicans trying to make an argument about immigration is that they can't keep any consistency in their arguments.

So the border is such an existential crisis that must be dealt with "immediately if not sooner" (thanks for that new phrase, Trump!), and we get a comprehensive border security package that is 1. brought to the table by a Republican Senator in a deep red Republican state somewhat near-ish to the border, 2. is the old pre-MAGA Republican Party's utter wet dream for how tough it is, and 3. required the Democrats to make concessions on virtually everything in the bill that would have been extremely unpopular with the progressive flank of their party. And yet the current Republican nominee for President scuttled it? Why?

Also, the fentanyl crisis is such an existential crisis that must be dealt with "immediately if not sooner", but almost 90% of fentanyl that comes into the United States arrives via U.S. citizen, but because roughly 10% of fentanyl arrives via undocumented immigrant, we need to round up and mass deport 10M+ immigrants who form the backbone of our service, agriculture, and manufacturing economy, instead of treat the actual problem of legal U.S. citizens working as drug mules for cartels?

How does any of that make sense? Hint: it doesn't, and it's why the American electorate keeps putting its foot in the GOP's ass when the time comes to go to the ballot box, because none of their policy arguments have congruency or make any sense to anyone who doesn't guzzle right wing media by the ballsack-full.
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If Republicans lose elections this cycle it’ll be because abortion and other issues are a losing issue for them. It certainly won’t be because the average American trusts the Democrats more on illegal immigration.

Republicans would love to make this election about immigration and economy, rather than abortion and Trump drama/fatigue/being an old ass.
 
superrific said:
If you are looking to compare rates, then you are correct.

The other important issue is: what would happen to fentanyl volume if we somehow eliminated all entry of non-citizens? The answer is fairly obviously nothing: if most of the drug runners now are citizens, then they would surely recruit more citizens to run drugs. Or use larger shipments and fewer runners. Or any number of strategies. What won't happen is the drug cartels giving up and saying, "eh, a small % of our workforce has been taken from us. Let's just quit and take our winnings."
Click to expand...
Right? Is it better that 100% of fentanyl is being brought in by citizens, rather than 86%?

If we deported all undocumented immigrants, and never allowed one back in, then you still have a huge fentanyl problem being brought in by all US citizens. Then what?
 
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