Immigration Issues and Reform

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I don’t expect to agree with Republicans on every policy idea. In fact, anymore, I don’t expect to agree with any Republicans much on policy at all. That’s why I’m no longer a Republican. But the problem is that unless or until we can agree on very basic irrefutable facts- such as how the Republican party blocked its own sweeping immigration reform bill; how the overwhelming vast majority of undocumented immigrants in the United States commit crimes of any kind at a 60% lower rate than American citizens; how the overwhelming vast majority of illicit drugs are brought into this country by American citizens and not buy undocumented immigrants.- we are not ever going to be able to have a meaningful and productive conversation about how the country should address the very real problems of our inefficient immigration system and our ineffective border security.

One can’t support a party that blocks its own comprehensive immigration reform bill and expect to be taken seriously that you want immigration reform and enhanced border security.

Illegal border crossings are at their lowest point right now since summer 2020, under the Trump administration. Seems like something is working pretty decently well down there at the border! Why don’t we take what’s working well, and come together to discuss what we can do to make it work even better, instead of buying the bullshit hook, line, and sinker that the Republican party is trying to spoonfeed to its voter base in an election year.
 
Since this is a new thread on a new board, I will go ahead and give my grand conspiracy theory on illegal immigration in this election cycle. The short version: it's Russia.

I believe there is a concerted effort by Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua (the staunchest allies of Putin in this hemisphere) to de-stabilize the United States by using illegal immigration as a strategic weapon. And I believe MAGA has gladly swallowed the bait. Those three countries Consider the following evidence:

-About 18 months ago, Nicaragua dropped pretty much all visa requirements for a host of countries that are considered net exporters of migrants. Over that period of time we have seen a dramatic spike in charter flights to Managua from various non-traditional locations (Haiti, Cuba,India, Africa, etc). The Ortega regime has turned that business into a cash cow, charging immigrants $200 a piece to pass through the country: they land at the airport and get whisked to the border by bus. We did the rough math on the other board, but its estimated that about 10-15% of the arrivals have come through this gateway (about 180,000 migrants...does not include Nicaraguans heading north). Ortega in his latest declarations, has tipped his hand and said how the US is evil for trying to restrict immigration.
Ortega regime turns Nicaragua into gateway for irregular migration to the United States

-In that same time frame we have seen a surge of Venezuelans leave their country. Historically, the Venezuleans have fled to other LatAm countries (Peru, Colombia and Chile are all estimated to have at least 1 MM Venezuleans each). Maybe the elections in Chile and Colombia spooked the Venezuelans and they changed destination. The Darien Gap in the Panamanian jungle use to be considered the physical barrier that protected North America from mass immigration. In the past 18 months the human traffickers have found ways to conquer this passage and get people across Panama (on to Costa Rica and then the rest of Central America).
-Cuba ebbs and flows in their stance on emigration. When political protests flashed last year, they opened the pressure valve of allowing dissidents to leave (usually through the Nicaragua route).
-All three of these countries see a triple win in generating emigrants: 1) get rid of political dissidents/opposition, 2) boost remittance revenue, 3) drive the US crazy. To this point, there has been no downside for them (though recently the Biden admin has started going after the Nicaraguan regime for human trafficking, but very light, no big stick).

Now on to the other side of the pincer attack, the MAGA. I don't think this is a concerted attack...I just believe the MAGA crowd has taken the bait.

-Battling illegal immigration has been a cornerstone of the Trump platform. He's been pretty consistent on this issue and has treated this as the boogeyman that's coming for your women and jobs. Any crime by an illegal immigrant gets outsized attention. The rise of fascist governments in the 1930's was also built on a theme of natives vs outsiders, where all of a countries ills are laid at the feet of foreigners.
-Its such a great political football for the MAGAGOP, that they will fight tooth and nail not to solve the issue. As long a they have this, they can drum up support. Why have new not had comprehensive immigration reform in more than 20 years? There is no political will on the Republican side to fix it.
-I really do think that the happiest people under Trump were the drug cartels; he created a very profitable revenue stream in the human trafficking business.
-I believe the Russians understand the MAGA psyche very well. We have been hearing about the dangers of illegal immigrants in the US in an augmented way since the beginning of this election cycle (when Trump was telegraphing he was making another run). I would bet that their internet bot army is cranking out a lot of the illegal immigrant content and then letting those sparks catch fire in the MAGA online world.
- I find it curious that Musk really beats the drum on the illegal immigrant issue, augmenting the issue and giving space to right-wing personalities that have hard takes on this issue. Is it a bid to drive engagement in general? Obviously he wants Trump to win the election....he just may be pushing those buttons in support of that objective.
 
I have made the argument before, and I will continue to make it, that actual sweeping immigration reform would be fatal to the existence of the Republican Party. Screaming about immigration- putting it in terms of illegal immigrants being murderers, rapists, and drug smugglers, etc.- is the only surefire way that they have to keep their voting base enraged and fearful. They’ve got nothing else policy wise on which to hang their hats- you really think MawMaw and PawPaw from BFE care about tax cuts for billionaires? If the GOP loses its ability to race-bait and fear-monger about immigration, they might not ever win a national election ever again- because every single solitary one of their social policies are wildly unpopular with the majority of Americans, and their fiscal policies do nothing to help (and in fact, generally harm) middle class and working class America.
 
CRHeel94 said:
Since this is a new thread on a new board, I will go ahead and give my grand conspiracy theory on illegal immigration in this election cycle. The short version: it's Russia.

I believe there is a concerted effort by Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua (the staunchest allies of Putin in this hemisphere) to de-stabilize the United States by using illegal immigration as a strategic weapon. And I believe MAGA has gladly swallowed the bait. Those three countries Consider the following evidence:

-About 18 months ago, Nicaragua dropped pretty much all visa requirements for a host of countries that are considered net exporters of migrants. Over that period of time we have seen a dramatic spike in charter flights to Managua from various non-traditional locations (Haiti, Cuba,India, Africa, etc). The Ortega regime has turned that business into a cash cow, charging immigrants $200 a piece to pass through the country: they land at the airport and get whisked to the border by bus. We did the rough math on the other board, but its estimated that about 10-15% of the arrivals have come through this gateway (about 180,000 migrants...does not include Nicaraguans heading north). Ortega in his latest declarations, has tipped his hand and said how the US is evil for trying to restrict immigration.
Ortega regime turns Nicaragua into gateway for irregular migration to the United States

-In that same time frame we have seen a surge of Venezuelans leave their country. Historically, the Venezuleans have fled to other LatAm countries (Peru, Colombia and Chile are all estimated to have at least 1 MM Venezuleans each). Maybe the elections in Chile and Colombia spooked the Venezuelans and they changed destination. The Darien Gap in the Panamanian jungle use to be considered the physical barrier that protected North America from mass immigration. In the past 18 months the human traffickers have found ways to conquer this passage and get people across Panama (on to Costa Rica and then the rest of Central America).
-Cuba ebbs and flows in their stance on emigration. When political protests flashed last year, they opened the pressure valve of allowing dissidents to leave (usually through the Nicaragua route).
-All three of these countries see a triple win in generating emigrants: 1) get rid of political dissidents/opposition, 2) boost remittance revenue, 3) drive the US crazy. To this point, there has been no downside for them (though recently the Biden admin has started going after the Nicaraguan regime for human trafficking, but very light, no big stick).

Now on to the other side of the pincer attack, the MAGA. I don't think this is a concerted attack...I just believe the MAGA crowd has taken the bait.

-Battling illegal immigration has been a cornerstone of the Trump platform. He's been pretty consistent on this issue and has treated this as the boogeyman that's coming for your women and jobs. Any crime by an illegal immigrant gets outsized attention. The rise of fascist governments in the 1930's was also built on a theme of natives vs outsiders, where all of a countries ills are laid at the feet of foreigners.
-Its such a great political football for the MAGAGOP, that they will fight tooth and nail not to solve the issue. As long a they have this, they can drum up support. Why have new not had comprehensive immigration reform in more than 20 years? There is no political will on the Republican side to fix it.
-I really do think that the happiest people under Trump were the drug cartels; he created a very profitable revenue stream in the human trafficking business.
-I believe the Russians understand the MAGA psyche very well. We have been hearing about the dangers of illegal immigrants in the US in an augmented way since the beginning of this election cycle (when Trump was telegraphing he was making another run). I would bet that their internet bot army is cranking out a lot of the illegal immigrant content and then letting those sparks catch fire in the MAGA online world.
- I find it curious that Musk really beats the drum on the illegal immigrant issue, augmenting the issue and giving space to right-wing personalities that have hard takes on this issue. Is it a bid to drive engagement in general? Obviously he wants Trump to win the election....he just may be pushing those buttons in support of that objective.
Click to expand...
As you know, I was initially skeptical of this theory but the more you talked about it, the more sensible it began to appear. And then I saw some fairly expert person discussing this exact possibility on a news show or in an op-ed or something like that. I shared it with you on the board. Do you happen to remember what it was? I know, it was my link but I'm not remembering. Anyway, I thought it was so interesting to see the ZZLP "conspiracy" theory being discussed mainstream.
 
I was on that theory from the very beginning. Laid it out in full detail for a poli sci professor yesterday...he was kind of stunned, but concluded that it made a lot of sense. Of course you add in all that on top of regular migration flow (he pointed out that migration from El Salvador right now has really dropped and that Mexico is relatively low).

I'll see if I can dig up that link.

Edited to add:
I believe this is the link

 
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@lightbluenc @CFordUNC moving immigration discussion to here and deleting from Trump press conference thread.

“I pointed out that actually 100% of them committed a crime just by being here. Then someone compared living in a country illegally to driving 71 MPH in a 70, and someone else made some comment about Trump being a criminal.

No argument from me that they serve a vital role to our economy. See below on what I believe the prudent approach to be to overcome this.

They do bring drugs into the country at a higher rate than US citizens. Just because they don’t bring in a majority of the drugs doesn’t mean they don’t still bring in a disproportionate amount, as I described on that thread.

I would be fine if Trump deported as many illegal immigrants as possible like he says he wants to do, but I acknowledged that deporting all of them will never happen because there aren’t enough resources to deport that many and he only deported 1 million in his first term. So the prudent approach is to focus our limited resources we have on deporting the ones that aren’t contributing positively to our society. Out of curiosity, who do you think would deport more as president, Trump or Harris? And do you think any should be deported at all?

The “actual problem” is that illegal immigrants are a fiscal drain when they consume our country’s resources. They receive more in benefits than they pay in taxes. The average illegal immigrant is not college educated (69% of them with no education past high school, vs only 35% for US born), which means they typically make low wages and pay little in taxes. A large percentage of them also qualify for welfare programs, often receiving benefits on behalf of their US born children. About 59% of households headed by illegal immigrants are on some type of welfare program, vs 39% of households for where the head of household is US born. They also use our public education system (cost of $68.1 billion per year). There are now about 12.8 million illegal immigrants in the country as of October 2023, which is 2.3 million higher than the number we had in January 2021 (so up roughly 22% in 3 years). That is not sustainable and we have no idea who some of these people even are.

Countries have borders for a reason and these people are breaking the law by living here. Would you prefer we just let unlimited amounts of illegals into the country if you think they are on average just as productive to our society as the average American? Or do you draw a line somewhere?

I admit it’s a complex issue because they do some of the blue collar work that most Americans are too lazy to do. But please don’t act as if there’s not also a corresponding downside to having an open border.”
 
The “actual problem” is that illegal immigrants are a fiscal drain when they consume our country’s resources. They receive more in benefits than they pay in taxes.

Can you show me data on this?

I found that first generation immigrants slightly cost more that a naturally born US citizen, but the second generation immigrants are “among the strongest fiscal and economic contributors in the U.S. and actually contribute way more than native-born Americans." So once they get to the US, and have children, they are providing way more than you or my kids are. The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration | The National Academies Press (edited to add: admittedly you could say these 2nd gen folks are natural born US citizens at this point too)

Why do you think educating them is not sustainable, when you turn around and say them being uneducated as a negative? Let's educate anyone that wants to come here, because it makes our population smarter as a whole.

Also, I don't like calling any human being "illegal". No one should be dehumanized to being referred to as that. I think that are just as productive to our society and have no line to draw.

Our country is going to pay for whatever it has to. We've always done it, and always will. That's why we are America. If I have to pay a little more for someone else to live a better life, I'm willing to do that. I'd love to help pay for you, and for your kids to get a great education, healthcare, etc. I don't care what border they had to cross to get here. I wanna help them. I don't have a lot but I am willing to do whatever it takes. I don't have money saved for retirement, I don't have money in the stock market, my family runs paycheck to paycheck, and I'm still down to do what I can for anyone wanting to come here.

I think it comes down to:

-You would rather pay less in taxes (cost to educate, provide services to these folks, and have them have worse lives) with less immigrants, but we all pay much more in grocery bills, construction, hotels, etc the low-wage sector.

- I would rather pay more in taxes to have a better society and have these folks have better lives, but we also pay less in grocery, construction etc.
 
Moving mine over, too. Appreciate you fellas for the convo!

The counter-argument study to the one that was presented to the House Judiciary committee in January is this one, from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, which is a left-leaning, nonprofit think tank.

Their findings show that undocumented immigrants paid nearly $100 billion in federal, state and local tax revenue in 2022 while many are shut out of the programs that their taxes fund. These findings run counter to anti-immigrant rhetoric that undocumented immigrants are “destroying” social programs. In 40 states, undocumented immigrants paid higher tax rates than the top 1% of the income scale in those states, according to the study.

The case study, which uses estimates of undocumented immigrants’ tax contributions as of 2022, shows those totaled $96.7 billion that year. Study authors also found that undocumented immigrants would contribute $40.2 billion more per year in federal, state and local taxes if all of the undocumented population had access to work authorization. Undocumented immigrants are paying 46% of their state and local tax payments through sales and excise taxes. Six states — New Jersey, New York, California, Florida, Texas, and Illinois — were able to raise more than $1 billion each in tax revenue from undocumented immigrants,.

Undocumented immigrants also pay property taxes and sales taxes, and federal payroll taxes taken from their wages, as well as income tax returns using Individual Taxpayer Identification numbers. Despite those payroll taxes funding Medicare, Social Security, and Unemployment Insurance, undocumented immigrants are not eligible to enroll in and receive regular benefits from these social programs. They can face barriers to getting tax refunds.

The study, which uses estimates of undocumented immigrants’ tax contributions as of 2022, shows those totaled $96.7 billion that year. Study authors also found that undocumented immigrants would contribute $40.2 billion more per year in federal, state and local taxes if all of the undocumented population had access to work authorization. The Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy reasoned that this boost would come from higher wages associated with employment authorization and easier compliance with income tax laws.

Immigration and economic experts who spoke about the significance of the report highlighted the Congressional Budget Office’s July report on the rise in immigration and its effects on the economy and budget, which found that this increase in immigration would add $1.2 trillion in federal revenue from 2024 to 2034



Study says undocumented immigrants paid almost $100 billion in taxes • Kansas Reflector​

A new study shows that undocumented immigrants paid nearly $100 billion in federal, state and local tax revenue in 2022 while many are shut out of the programs their taxes fund
kansasreflector.com kansasreflector.com
 
HeelYeah2012 said:
The “actual problem” is that illegal immigrants are a fiscal drain when they consume our country’s resources. They receive more in benefits than they pay in taxes. The average illegal immigrant is not college educated (69% of them with no education past high school, vs only 35% for US born), which means they typically make low wages and pay little in taxes. A large percentage of them also qualify for welfare programs, often receiving benefits on behalf of their US born children. About 59% of households headed by illegal immigrants are on some type of welfare program, vs 39% of households for where the head of household is US born. They also use our public education system (cost of $68.1 billion per year). There are now about 12.8 million illegal immigrants in the country as of October 2023, which is 2.3 million higher than the number we had in January 2021 (so up roughly 22% in 3 years). That is not sustainable and we have no idea who some of these people even are.
Click to expand...
It's always helpful if you are start quoting numbers that you should provide a link as well. That gives other people a chance to review the source, and the methodology used, to determine these numbers.
 
TarHeelGrad said:
It's always helpful if you are start quoting numbers that you should provide a link as well. That gives other people a chance to review the source, and the methodology used, to determine these numbers.
Click to expand...
Still learning the new board. Posting from my phone at the beach. Apologies.
 
lightbluenc said:
The “actual problem” is that illegal immigrants are a fiscal drain when they consume our country’s resources. They receive more in benefits than they pay in taxes.

Can you show me data on this?

I found that first generation immigrants slightly cost more that a naturally born US citizen, but the second generation immigrants are “among the strongest fiscal and economic contributors in the U.S. and actually contribute way more than native-born Americans." So once they get to the US, and have children, they are providing way more than you or my kids are. The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration | The National Academies Press (edited to add: admittedly you could say these 2nd gen folks are natural born US citizens at this point too)

Why do you think educating them is not sustainable, when you turn around and say them being uneducated as a negative? Let's educate anyone that wants to come here, because it makes our population smarter as a whole.

Also, I don't like calling any human being "illegal". No one should be dehumanized to being referred to as that. I think that are just as productive to our society and have no line to draw.

Our country is going to pay for whatever it has to. We've always done it, and always will. That's why we are America. If I have to pay a little more for someone else to live a better life, I'm willing to do that. I'd love to help pay for you, and for your kids to get a great education, healthcare, etc. I don't care what border they had to cross to get here. I wanna help them. I don't have a lot but I am willing to do whatever it takes. I don't have money saved for retirement, I don't have money in the stock market, my family runs paycheck to paycheck, and I'm still down to do what I can for anyone wanting to come here.

I think it comes down to:

-You would rather pay less in taxes (cost to educate, provide services to these folks, and have them have worse lives) with less immigrants, but we all pay much more in grocery bills, construction, hotels, etc the low-wage sector.

- I would rather pay more in taxes to have a better society and have these folks have better lives, but we also pay less in grocery, construction etc.
Click to expand...
Just to be clear, focusing specifically on this paragraph you wrote: “Also, I don't like calling any human being "illegal". No one should be dehumanized to being referred to as that. I think that are just as productive to our society and have no line to draw.”

So is it fair to say you’d literally be ok opening up our borders and letting an indefinite number of people immigrate illegally into our country? That’s just bizarre if so. Usually even liberals realize we can’t just let everyone in (see the bipartisan immigration bill that was proposed that you guys love to talk about so much)

And it seems like your justification for the unlimited drain on America’s resources is just “Our country is going to pay for whatever it has to. We've always done it, and always will.”
 
HeelYeah2012 said:
Just to be clear, focusing specifically on this paragraph you wrote: “Also, I don't like calling any human being "illegal". No one should be dehumanized to being referred to as that. I think that are just as productive to our society and have no line to draw.”

So is it fair to say you’d literally be ok opening up our borders and letting an indefinite number of people immigrate illegally into our country? That’s just bizarre if so. Usually even liberals realize we can’t just let everyone in (see the bipartisan immigration bill that was proposed that you guys love to talk about so much)

And it seems like your justification for the unlimited drain on America’s resources is just “Our country is going to pay for whatever it has to. We've always done it, and always will.”
Click to expand...
I personally am okay with it because all the data presented so far points to it making our country better, not worse.

I can see how someone wouldn't want them to come here, if for instance they didn't like those peoples customs or culture. That makes more sense to me. I may not agree with it, but it makes sense. (editing to add: I understand the logic of someone wanting to limit the border based on xenophobia or racism way more than on economic or crime reasons. The economic reasons don't hold up to the facts. But I can't help how someone feels about something, that's on their experiences if that makes sense)

I fail to see how its an unlimited drain, if an unlimited amount of people does not exist in our world. There's a finite amount of human beings that could potentially come here.

And yeah, our country pays for billion dollar football stadiums. Hell we pay billions each year in something as useless as fireworks on July 4th collectively, so we sure as hell can pay more to teachers, and thus more in educating students no matter where they come from.
 
HeelYeah2012 said:
Just to be clear, focusing specifically on this paragraph you wrote: “Also, I don't like calling any human being "illegal". No one should be dehumanized to being referred to as that. I think that are just as productive to our society and have no line to draw.”

So is it fair to say you’d literally be ok opening up our borders and letting an indefinite number of people immigrate illegally into our country? That’s just bizarre if so. Usually even liberals realize we can’t just let everyone in (see the bipartisan immigration bill that was proposed that you guys love to talk about so much)

And it seems like your justification for the unlimited drain on America’s resources is just “Our country is going to pay for whatever it has to. We've always done it, and always will.”
Click to expand...
1. I think the claim about "pay whatever it has to" refers to the idea of investment in young people. As noted, the second generation immigrants tend to be extremely productive. So if we take a loss on the first generation (and that's a big if, and one that I would contest for some of the reasons in CFord's post above and other reasons as well), but we make way more back on the second, doesn't that seem to be a win?

2. I've asked you this before, and you've never answered. If your issue with undocumented immigrants is that they commit the crime of being here illegally, then why not just make their presence legal? Then you've solved the crime problem, and we get all the benefits!

It really gets to the question about victimless crimes. We could lower the homicide rate by making it legal to shoot people in the face . . . but then we would have lots of people getting shot in the face, which is bad. Homicide, after all, is a crime because it's an evil act that we need to discourage or else our country would be a war zone. It's similarly obvious why we wouldn't legalize property crimes. These are crimes with victims.

But you're talking about victimless "crimes." Note that all "illegal" aliens who cross through ports of entry are here legally; they are awaiting immigration hearings and are allowed to stay. But anyway, even if that weren't true, what's the justification for making illegal presence a crime? It can't be because the immigrants are committing that crime, as that is perfectly circular. So what is the problem?

3. If I had my way, I would permit the entry of way more people than we admit now. It will benefit us in the long-run (though there are questions about the climate impact). But it's not up to me. Since I am a realist, I accept compromises. It's the same way that I'd like the tax rate on million-dollar incomes to be about 60%, as that's the rate that economists have generally determined to be optimal from a revenue perspective. But I'm not going to get 60%. How about we just go to 40%? You see the point?

That's why it's so ridiculous to say that Dems are advocating for open borders. No, we're not. We know how to advocate for them if we wanted to. We aren't. Because it's politically foolish to do so.
 
superrific said:
1. I think the claim about "pay whatever it has to" refers to the idea of investment in young people. As noted, the second generation immigrants tend to be extremely productive. So if we take a loss on the first generation (and that's a big if, and one that I would contest for some of the reasons in CFord's post above and other reasons as well), but we make way more back on the second, doesn't that seem to be a win?

2. I've asked you this before, and you've never answered. If your issue with undocumented immigrants is that they commit the crime of being here illegally, then why not just make their presence legal? Then you've solved the crime problem, and we get all the benefits!

It really gets to the question about victimless crimes. We could lower the homicide rate by making it legal to shoot people in the face . . . but then we would have lots of people getting shot in the face, which is bad. Homicide, after all, is a crime because it's an evil act that we need to discourage or else our country would be a war zone. It's similarly obvious why we wouldn't legalize property crimes. These are crimes with victims.

But you're talking about victimless "crimes." Note that all "illegal" aliens who cross through ports of entry are here legally; they are awaiting immigration hearings and are allowed to stay. But anyway, even if that weren't true, what's the justification for making illegal presence a crime? It can't be because the immigrants are committing that crime, as that is perfectly circular. So what is the problem?

3. If I had my way, I would permit the entry of way more people than we admit now. It will benefit us in the long-run (though there are questions about the climate impact). But it's not up to me. Since I am a realist, I accept compromises. It's the same way that I'd like the tax rate on million-dollar incomes to be about 60%, as that's the rate that economists have generally determined to be optimal from a revenue perspective. But I'm not going to get 60%. How about we just go to 40%? You see the point?

That's why it's so ridiculous to say that Dems are advocating for open borders. No, we're not. We know how to advocate for them if we wanted to. We aren't. Because it's politically foolish to do so.
Click to expand...
Agree with all this
 
HeelYeah2012 said:
Just to be clear, focusing specifically on this paragraph you wrote: “Also, I don't like calling any human being "illegal". No one should be dehumanized to being referred to as that. I think that are just as productive to our society and have no line to draw.”

So is it fair to say you’d literally be ok opening up our borders and letting an indefinite number of people immigrate illegally into our country? That’s just bizarre if so. Usually even liberals realize we can’t just let everyone in (see the bipartisan immigration bill that was proposed that you guys love to talk about so much)

And it seems like your justification for the unlimited drain on America’s resources is just “Our country is going to pay for whatever it has to. We've always done it, and always will.”
Click to expand...
There is no "unlimited drain on America's resource." Immigrants, whether lawful or not, are a net positive for the economy. We need immigrants. Our country has always needed immigrants. Mostly poor, mostly uneducated immigrants from other countries have been the engine of the American economy for most of our history. The idea that they are a "drain" is absurd, especially since they aren't eligible for most benefit programs.

In an area of slowing birthrates, paranoid nativism is going to doom the future of the American economy. We need immigrants. Preferably lawful immigrants, but if Republicans are gonna scream xenophobia and nix that than we need unlawful ones. There is no viable endgame to cutting off the flow of immigrants into our country (and paying massive amounts of money to deport ones already here). It's just cutting off our nose to spite our face.
 
CRHeel94 said:
I was on that theory from the very beginning. Laid it out in full detail for a poli sci professor yesterday...he was kind of stunned, but concluded that it made a lot of sense. Of course you add in all that on top of regular migration flow (he pointed out that migration from El Salvador right now has really dropped and that Mexico is relatively low).

I'll see if I can dig up that link.

Edited to add:
I believe this is the link

Click to expand...

Thanks. Wild that a poli sci professor was stunned by your hypothesis (which is, we have to admit, still a hypothesis)
 
CFordUNC said:
Moving mine over, too. Appreciate you fellas for the convo!

The counter-argument study to the one that was presented to the House Judiciary committee in January is this one, from the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy, which is a left-leaning, nonprofit think tank.
Click to expand...
The right-winger presentation is full of issues. For one thing, they count benefits given to the US citizen children of migrants as benefits to the "migrant household." This is absurd.

Second, they use big scary numbers that are meaningless. They estimate that each illegal immigrant costs taxpayers 68,000! OMG! Oh, wait, that's total lifetime cost. Even using this figure (which doesn't account for reverse migration), it's actually like $1500 a year. If there are 10 million illegal immigrants, that's . . . $15B a year. Again, chump change. It's literally about $5 per American.

Third, they do note that illegal immigrants contribute $321B to the nation's GDP, but that "almost all of that goes to the illegal immigrants in the form of wages." First, they had no citation for that claim, and for good reason: it's ridiculous.

A. First, the idea that any worker pockets, in wages, their contribution to GDP is silly. Someone else is always profiting from that employment.
B. Second, the idea that illegal immigrants in particular are doing so is even more absurd. Why do illegal immigrants get employment? Often it's because they will work for cheap -- below minimum wage, no overtime, etc. So almost by definition, they are not capturing their economic contributions.
C. The story of economic impact does not stop when the first wage is paid. Where do the illegal immigrants spend their money? Why, at local businesses. And each time they spend money they earned, they are contributing to GDP (because they are financing additional production).

Let's take a simple example: a migrant camp with 100% illegal immigrants. They work at the local quarry. Imagine thinking that the economic impact of those workers is limited to the quarry work they do! The local restaurants and grocery stores would like to have a word with you. There is an entire economy that would be supported by the wages paid to the quarry workers!

The only way that claim even makes sense is if the illegal immigrants are taking jobs that Americans would be working otherwise. But we know that's not true, because if it were, the immigrants wouldn't be adding $321B to GDP in the first place!

But of course, there are no consequences for the CIS when they feed this bullshit to Congress, because not enough Americans understand why it is bullshit. Well, I'm here to explain and hopefully there will be at least a few more Americans who understand.
 
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superrific said:
The right-winger presentation is full of issues. For one thing, they count benefits given to the US citizen children of migrants as benefits to the "migrant household." This is absurd.

Second, they use big scary numbers that are meaningless. They estimate that each illegal immigrant costs taxpayers 68,000! OMG! Oh, wait, that's total lifetime cost. Even using this figure (which doesn't account for reverse migration), it's actually like $1500 a year. If there are 10 million illegal immigrants, that's . . . $15B a year. Again, chump change. It's literally about $5 per person.

Third, they do note that illegal immigrants contribute $321B to the nation's GDP, but that "almost all of that goes to the illegal immigrants in the form of wages." First, they had no citation for that claim, and for good reason: it's ridiculous.

A. First, the idea that any worker pockets, in wages, their contribution to GDP is silly. Someone else is always profiting from that employment.
B. Second, the idea that illegal immigrants in particular are doing so is even more absurd. Why do illegal immigrants get employment? Often it's because they will work for cheap -- below minimum wage, no overtime, etc. So almost by definition, they are not capturing their economic contributions.
C. The story of economic impact does not stop when the first wage is paid. Where do the illegal immigrants spend their money? Why, at local businesses. And each time they spend money they earned, they are contributing to GDP (because they are financing additional production).

Let's take a simple example: a migrant camp with 100% illegal immigrants. They work at the local quarry. Imagine thinking that the economic impact of those workers is limited to the quarry work they do! The local restaurants and grocery stores would like to have a word with you. There is an entire economy that would be supported by the wages paid to the quarry workers!

The only way that claim even makes sense is if the illegal immigrants are taking jobs that Americans would be working otherwise. But we know that's not true, because if it were, the immigrants wouldn't be adding $321B to GDP in the first place!

But of course, there are no consequences for the CIS when they feed this bullshit to Congress, because not enough Americans understand why it is bullshit. Well, I'm here to explain and hopefully there will be at least a few more Americans who understand.
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Can you show your math on the $5 per person? You said $15 billion per year and 10 million illegal immigrants. How is that $5 per person? I’m getting $1,500 per person per year. I’m not disputing that the number is small in the grand scheme (if that number is even accurate)
 
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