Iran Catch-All | IRAN WAR - US Blockade, Lebanon Ceasefire

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superrific said:
Then what? How does the US enforce any of it? That's the problem with gunboat diplomacy; it don't work so well when the gunboats go home.
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You bring the gunboats back and resume the bombing and/or blockade. Iran knows what we're capable of so that's their incentive not to break any agreement.
 
Ramrouser said:
It won't take that long for Iran's economy to crumble. 90% of their economy is exporting oil. In a very short time all of their reserves will be full, meaning they will need to stop the production of oil. China will pressure Iran to settle with us since their economy is hurting as well. Y'all just don't want to admit that this was a master chess move by Trump: he head faked to the Iranians that he was going to have the Marines take Kharg, Hormuz and other Iranian islands, when he pivoted and imposed the blockage of Iranian oil shipments. Checkmate!

Iran is no longer a gatekeeper of anything. USA now controls the Strait and we're in the process of clearing the waters of mines.
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First, "90% of their economy" is just bullshit. They consume more oil than they export, so right off the bat you are wrong. Of course, you don't actually know what an economy is -- you're doing the same thing as Trump, confusing exports/imports for economy.

Second, Iran can last for at least a month. The US cannot. I don't know -- maybe you like spending a billion dollars a day accomplishing nothing but most Americans do not. Meanwhile, the global economy will start tanking and that is bad for the US by any measure.

Third, is it really that hard for you to offer even a little bit of critical thinking before spouting off like that? Really, there's no voice in your head anywhere saying, "um, this is bullshit, don't write it"?
 
Ramrouser said:
You bring the gunboats back and resume the bombing and/or blockade. Iran knows what we're capable of so that's their incentive not to break any agreement.
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It's really no surprise that you don't know anything about game theory, but clearly you do not.

Let's try this a little differently. How is the US going to enforce this blockade after 2028? They won't. So you're talking about now spending hundreds of billions of dollars for two years of some unspecified goal. Is really isn't worth it, is it? Well, surely the US can return in 2027 with Trump still in office, right? Fine, but that's hundreds of billions for only one year of something. It's not worth it.

As soon as you recognize that there is a time limit to our ability to keep up the blockade, all of the leverage disappears. This is freshman level economics.
 
superrific said:
This mook has no idea what an unrealized capital gain actually is, how they are used and what the consequences would be for taxing them.
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AS is often the case, you take a ridiculous position just to oppose what someone on the "other side" is saying, which is why I don't trust your legal analysis. You are far, far too biased to trust as remotely objective.
 
ZenMode said:
AS is often the case, you take a ridiculous position just to oppose what someone on the "other side" is saying, which is why I don't trust your legal analysis. You are far, far too biased to trust as remotely objective.
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And yet I am usually right. You should be more careful about what you call ridiculous, Mr. "We won't go to war in Venezuela."

I fully support taxing as realized any property that is pledged as collateral. That doesn't make me ridiculous. It means I understand the issue.

It's really hilarious that you constantly try to take me on, not realizing just how far over your head I am.
 
Has anyone who thinks this blockade is a good idea stopped to think for jist a second that the blockade itself is FAR more expensive than the tolls Iran would be charging...and now the American taxpayer pays for it all??
 
nycfan said:


RLY? Or a delaying tactic?
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As a general rule, you aren't going to send a carrier through the Suez Canal unless it is an absolute emergency. They are sitting ducks in there. Here is a decent explanation on YouTube (from a Campbell Prof who is a great listen on this whole situation). Go to 9:15 in the video:

 
What will Trump's surrender look like in dollar terms since that's the one area that can be measured? I predict 25 billion on an annual basis. It will be Gulf states promising rebuilding aid to Iran to keep the Strait open with no tolls. They might try to hide that they will be doing that. As long as Iran behaves then they get a monthly check. This will be the cheapest way to solve the whole problem.

Trump will claim victory because the Strait will be open. No idea if Israel will play nice. Not much will be said about nuclear or missiles.
 
BlueSmoke said:
What will Trump's surrender look like in dollar terms since that's the one area that can be measured? I predict 25 billion on an annual basis. It will be Gulf states promising rebuilding aid to Iran to keep the Strait open with no tolls. They might try to hide that they will be doing that. As long as Iran behaves then they get a monthly check. This will be the cheapest way to solve the whole problem.

Trump will claim victory because the Strait will be open. No idea if Israel will play nice. Not much will be said about nuclear or missiles.
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If that's what happens then Iran will be making enough money that they could pretty quickly rebuild their nuclear power program, and either this cycle will start all over again or we will just ignore what they're up to. And I agree that your scenario is a likely outcome. Trump is desperate to get out of this mess, and he'll take virtually any deal at this point to just declare victory and leave.
 
Ramrouser said:
Blockade delivering Victory for USA! Trump working on big deals for Iran and the region (Lebanon).
Dance Winning GIF
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Lol...sure. we are spending billions of dollars per day to accomplish what exactly for the American people?

I have never seen a more disconnected bunch of fuckups than the modern Republican party.
 
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