Iran Catch-All | IRAN WAR

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JCPOA was effective...until Trump made it not effective/withdrew...all because of the Correspondent's Dinner barbs courtesy of Obama (because of the birth certificate fiasco). I know it, you know it. We all know it.

Chat GPT:

Was JCPOA Effective?

1. Nuclear Nonproliferation: Largely Effective (2015–2018)​


The JCPOA was designed to delay and constrain Iran’s ability to build a nuclear weapon.


Key outcomes during full implementation:

  • Iran reduced its enriched uranium stockpile by ~97%
  • Enrichment levels capped at 3.67% (well below weapons-grade)
  • ~2/3 of centrifuges removed
  • The International Atomic Energy Agency conducted intrusive inspections

Assessment:
Most experts and the IAEA agreed Iran was complying. The estimated “breakout time” (time to produce enough fissile material for a bomb) increased from ~2–3 months to about 1 year.


👉 On this narrow but critical goal: yes, it was effective while in force.

2. Durability: Not Effective Long-Term​


The deal’s biggest weakness was political fragility.


  • In 2018, Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the agreement
  • Sanctions were reimposed
  • Iran gradually stopped complying and expanded enrichment

[Shocking that Trump's Geopolitical moves BACKFIRED]

By the early 2020s:

  • Iran enriched uranium to much higher levels (up to ~60%)
  • Breakout time shrank again to weeks in some estimates

👉 Conclusion: The JCPOA lacked durability—it depended heavily on continued political support, especially from the U.S.


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It's a riot seeing Calla try to play the "I know more than you" card here. What a mook. He's so balls deep in his own shit that he can't see what's really going on. It's not that he doesn't know what he's talking about; he doesn't even know what considerations are even relevant.
 
Callatoroy said:
lololololololol. There was more than 1 goal with iran. Regime change wasn't the only goal. There were several. Some of which have been achieved. Technically we did achieve regime change but I'm not arguing we accomplished thath. That isn't why i'm laughing at your comment though.

"We have given Iran unmitigated and unencumbered control of one of the most important shipping lanes on the globe with no way to force them to relinquish it short of initiating a ground war that we likely cannot win."

"It has failed to eliminate the Iranian nuclear program."

We didn't give iran unencumbered control of the strait. They have had informal control since the early 70's and have used that threat for decades. European control of the strait has been mostly symbolic.

Their program might exist in a notebook somewhere, but for the next 10 years we have effectively and practically eliminated their nuclear program. Their infrastructure and military facilities have been bombed to shit. Get back to me in 10 years though and you can make that argument then.

And lastly "Officials from Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Bahrain have conveyed in private conversations that they do not want the military operation to end until there are significant changes in the Iranian leadership or there’s a dramatic shift in Iranian behavior, according to the officials, who were not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on the condition of anonymity." We aren't losing regional allies. They need us to do their dirty work. The middle east despises the iran regime.

Bet you are in the basement now wearing your turban rooting for iran.
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None of this is true. Iran has never had "informal control" of the strait nor has it attempted to, since it was mined once at the tail end of the Iran/Iraq war. It hasn't tried to disrupt any passage on the strait in over a generation.

LOL at Iran not having a nuke for a decade. Get a clue, dude. You can't do sixth grade math -- you expect us to believe you have the faintest fucking clue about nuclear weapons?

We are losing regional allies quickly. Just because they are asking the US to clean up what it broke doesn't mean that they are remotely happy about what has happened. They are pissed. I'm not sure that matters very much; personally I've never considered the Saudis much of an ally in the first place. But America's standing in the Middle East is probably lower now than at any point in my lifetime.
 
zeuxis said:
You so casually disregard all of the substance of Jesus's teachings to cling to the perverted views you wish to preserve.
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I don't cling to any of this. I think its all nonsense. I'm just playing devil's advocate here.

I offered an internal critique using the words of the bible -- not my opinions. Words still mean words. I was trying to engage with your post not piss you off. But the meta point your response along with mine illustrates is that a purported holy book full of contradictions, relative morals and mythological literature can be and is used by different people to justify all kinds of evils. That's how you get 30,000 denominations of Christianity and none of them agree on what their god believes, wants or expects. Hence the never-ending true scotsman fallacy calls for "not a real" Christian.

Any government action in the name of a god is incredibly cringe. Any government WAR action in the name of a god is terrifying.
 
Duke Mu said:
JCPOA was effective...until Trump made it not effective/withdrew...all because of the Correspondent's Dinner barbs courtesy of Obama (because of the birth certificate fiasco). I know it, you know it. We all know it.

Chat GPT:

Was JCPOA Effective?

1. Nuclear Nonproliferation: Largely Effective (2015–2018)​


The JCPOA was designed to delay and constrain Iran’s ability to build a nuclear weapon.


Key outcomes during full implementation:

  • Iran reduced its enriched uranium stockpile by ~97%
  • Enrichment levels capped at 3.67% (well below weapons-grade)
  • ~2/3 of centrifuges removed
  • The International Atomic Energy Agency conducted intrusive inspections

Assessment:
Most experts and the IAEA agreed Iran was complying. The estimated “breakout time” (time to produce enough fissile material for a bomb) increased from ~2–3 months to about 1 year.


👉 On this narrow but critical goal: yes, it was effective while in force.

2. Durability: Not Effective Long-Term​


The deal’s biggest weakness was political fragility.


  • In 2018, Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. from the agreement
  • Sanctions were reimposed
  • Iran gradually stopped complying and expanded enrichment

[Shocking that Trump's Geopolitical moves BACKFIRED]

By the early 2020s:

  • Iran enriched uranium to much higher levels (up to ~60%)
  • Breakout time shrank again to weeks in some estimates

👉 Conclusion: The JCPOA lacked durability—it depended heavily on continued political support, especially from the U.S.


s-l1600 copy.jpeg
Click to expand...
Don’t expect a response.
 
Milk and Cookies said:
I don't cling to any of this. I think its all nonsense. I'm just playing devil's advocate here.

I offered an internal critique using the words of the bible -- not my opinions. Words still mean words. I was trying to engage with your post not piss you off. But the meta point your response along with mine illustrates is that a purported holy book full of contradictions, relative morals and mythological literature can be and is used by different people to justify all kinds of evils. That's how you get 30,000 denominations of Christianity and none of them agree on what their god believes, wants or expects. Hence the never-ending true scotsman fallacy calls for "not a real" Christian.

Any government action in the name of a god is incredibly cringe. Any government WAR action in the name of a god is terrifying.
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Okay. I mistook your intent in the first instance.
 
superrific said:
None of this is true. Iran has never had "informal control" of the strait nor has it attempted to, since it was mined once at the tail end of the Iran/Iraq war. It hasn't tried to disrupt any passage on the strait in over a generation.

LOL at Iran not having a nuke for a decade. Get a clue, dude. You can't do sixth grade math -- you expect us to believe you have the faintest fucking clue about nuclear weapons?

We are losing regional allies quickly. Just because they are asking the US to clean up what it broke doesn't mean that they are remotely happy about what has happened. They are pissed. I'm not sure that matters very much; personally I've never considered the Saudis much of an ally in the first place. But America's standing in the Middle East is probably lower now than at any point in my lifetime.
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The whole premise that "We Give" a sovereign country anything is laughable. We need to stop pretending to be the global police. We've basically fucked up every conflict since the second world war. If not for all that defense money flowing into the pockets of those in the industry that want war, we could be human about this and build the relationships that might actually make the world a safer place.
 
Bobfripp said:
Well, North Korea developed the bomb while we watched, and we didn't intervene. Is Iran developing a nuke our problem, or more like a Middle East issue (Israel, Saudi Arabia, etc.)? I think it's the latter. I'm tired of the US playing world policeman, aren't you?
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I believe you make a great point here. I would add that the decision to intervene or not w Iran should be made w our allies (at least the ones we used to have). The US has no business doing this to Iran when they are no more a direct threat to us than any other country except Israel. And if Israel feels like they are in imminent danger they need to seek help from many allies as well not just the US.
 
This is a summary of Trump discussing war in general during his 2024 campaign:

During his 2024 presidential campaign,
Donald Trump
did not support a war with
Iran
. In fact, he centered his foreign policy message on ending "endless" wars and repeatedly promised to prevent a "third world war".
NBC News +2

2024 Campaign Stance
  • Anti-Interventionist Messaging:Trump consistently branded himself as the "peace" candidate, vowing to "expel the warmongers" from government.
  • Direct Denials: Just days before the 2024 election, he told a New York City crowd, "You're not going to have a war with me".
  • Victory Speech: In his November 2024 victory speech, he stated, "I'm not going to start a war. I'm going to stop wars".
 
Delta74 said:
This is a summary of Trump discussing war in general during his 2024 campaign:

During his 2024 presidential campaign,
Donald Trump
did not support a war with
Iran
. In fact, he centered his foreign policy message on ending "endless" wars and repeatedly promised to prevent a "third world war".
NBC News +2

2024 Campaign Stance
  • Anti-Interventionist Messaging:Trump consistently branded himself as the "peace" candidate, vowing to "expel the warmongers" from government.
  • Direct Denials: Just days before the 2024 election, he told a New York City crowd, "You're not going to have a war with me".
  • Victory Speech: In his November 2024 victory speech, he stated, "I'm not going to start a war. I'm going to stop wars".
Click to expand...
The “peace” candidate that once elected almost immediately changes the name of the department of defense to the department of war.

I mean really? How dupified do you have to be to keep falling for Trumps lies.
 
Delta74 said:
This is a summary of Trump discussing war in general during his 2024 campaign:

During his 2024 presidential campaign,
Donald Trump
did not support a war with
Iran
. In fact, he centered his foreign policy message on ending "endless" wars and repeatedly promised to prevent a "third world war".
NBC News +2

2024 Campaign Stance
  • Anti-Interventionist Messaging:Trump consistently branded himself as the "peace" candidate, vowing to "expel the warmongers" from government.
  • Direct Denials: Just days before the 2024 election, he told a New York City crowd, "You're not going to have a war with me".
  • Victory Speech: In his November 2024 victory speech, he stated, "I'm not going to start a war. I'm going to stop wars".
Click to expand...
Kinda puts a damper on the idea that Trump is some great strategic thinker with a well thought out plan. I mean, if anyone were gullible enough to believe that in the first place.
 
This thing in Iran is the single greatest military clusterfuck in any of our lifetimes. There is no other rational conclusion.
 
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