Is the economy already tanking?

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Kraftyheel89 said:
It is not so much the absolute figure, the change is far more important. The survey released this morning (The Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) was down 10% over prior month. Anything greater than a 5% move is considered significant, with a 2% sampling error. This particular index randomly calls and gets just 500 responders to 50 questions.

The more accepted and generally used consumer confidence index (CCI) is from The Conference Board, an indy research group. They contact 5,000 each month, and seek the same type of data.

Both are started and pegged to a certain year, which started the reading at 100. So there is an actual score, but it is the trend in either direction month to month that is most important.

Manufacturers and retailers actually take these trends into consideration for production and inventory planning, perhaps even hiring and layoffs. Although, there is much much more involved, as I am sure you are aware that supply chain logistics have become very complex and advanced.
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Thank you for the explanation.
 
Q2 is going to be a bit shaky compared to Q1, as we won’t be seeing the full effects of what the administration is doing.

By Q3, we’ll see negative GDP growth. And the only questions will be for how many quarters will we get economic contraction and how deep will the contraction go?
 
I'm not sure or should say I don't believe we will see negative growth this year. Nobody can be sure about anything in the future, especially on the economy.

But I do agree, if Trump continues with his actual tariff nonsense (not the bluffs, achieving nothing then claiming victory) but the actual tariffs promised, there is much trouble ahead. There does not have to be a contracting economy to cause major pproblems.

If the recent growth of the past few years (under Biden) just slows to 1 or 2% that is a big problem. Layoffs will happen to improve bottom line profits. And the market would tank by 20%, maybe more. The market is so overvalued and priced for near future perfection. Anything less than that (and 1-2% growth is well below perfection), look out below in the markets.

Money is already flowing to European markets and even China (thanks to idiot Trump playing right into Russia and China's hands.) And their markets are actually undervalued, Europe and China.
 
Kraftyheel89 said:
I'm not sure or should say I don't believe we will see negative growth this year. Nobody can be sure about anything in the future, especially on the economy.

But I do agree, if Trump continues with his actual tariff nonsense (not the bluffs, achieving nothing then claiming victory) but the actual tariffs promised, there is much trouble ahead. There does not have to be a contracting economy to cause major pproblems.

If the recent growth of the past few years (under Biden) just slows to 1 or 2% that is a big problem. Layoffs will happen to improve bottom line profits. And the market would tank by 20%, maybe more. The market is so overvalued and priced for near future perfection. Anything less than that (and 1-2% growth is well below perfection), look out below in the markets.

Money is already flowing to European markets and even China (thanks to idiot Trump playing right into Russia and China's hands.) And their markets are actually undervalued, Europe and China.
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Well, there's not just the tariffs. There's the deportations (although they seem to be moving slowly), and the mass layoffs in the federal government. It is a bad idea to pursue a contractionary fiscal policy when also raising tariffs. It's the most idiotic economic policy ever.

I'm not sure GDP growth will turn negative either. Too much uncertainty. But I'd say it's entirely realistic.
 
Purple Nurple said:
www.usatoday.com

The economy's strong. Why are more Americans barely making credit card payments?

Despite a strong economy, the share of Americans making only the minimum credit card payment hit a 12-year high and delinquenices are rising.
www.usatoday.com www.usatoday.com

Consumer is washed. I've been noting the rate of explosion of credit card debt for a while.
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[Edit] I am actually responding to Purple Nurple's point about consumer debt rising - below. But my reply only picked up original link.

That has been going on for at least 6 to 9 months, increasing consumer debt. Consumer spending makes up 2/3 of the Economy. Add Trump's gutting Federal employment, departments, and funding, and well, we will see how that turns out.
 
Kraftyheel89 said:
[Edit] I am actually responding to Purple Nurple's point about consumer debt rising - below. But my reply only picked up original link.

That has been going on for at least 6 to 9 months, increasing consumer debt. Consumer spending makes up 2/3 of the Economy. Add Trump's gutting Federal employment, departments, and funding, and well, we will see how that turns out.
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Yeah. It's been going on for a while. At some point you have to say "no mas".
Also, there were the Trumplings who thought everything was going to get better as soon as he took office. The idiocy that comes out of these people's mouth is astounding. They can hardly string together a sentence, but are economic experts. Reality is slapping them in the face.
 
heelinhell said:
We shall see...

It appears that folks are beginning to worry that the economy is tanking, but we should not be surprised if it does. The economy usually tanks when a GQPer is in the White House...
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The economy “tanking” is an over used term right now. I believe the real concerns right now are a slowing economy mixed with geopolitical and domestic uncertainty. The markets like certainly and divided government. Neither of which we have at the moment.

“tanking” would be a 20+ % loss in equities which is certainly possible but we’re not there yet I don’t believe. But some stupid bs from Trump could put us there quickly.
 
1moretimeagain said:
I think there’s a decent amount of variance right now. I saw a tweet from someone in the airplane scrapyard industry and he said business is booming.

More seriously Inthink it’s difficult to say. If Trump delivers massive spending cuts and massive deportations it should have a negative economic impact, but we don’t know that he’ll actually deliver on those promises.
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Define negative economic impact because deportations could also lead to a hiring boom. May also kick off some more inflation too but Trump could get away with inflation if it’s also leading to higher wages being forced into the system via labor shortages. We have a bifurcated economy already so whatever you think about macro now may not be how policy changes work in reality.
 
Kraftyheel89 said:
I'm not sure or should say I don't believe we will see negative growth this year. Nobody can be sure about anything in the future, especially on the economy.

But I do agree, if Trump continues with his actual tariff nonsense (not the bluffs, achieving nothing then claiming victory) but the actual tariffs promised, there is much trouble ahead. There does not have to be a contracting economy to cause major pproblems.

If the recent growth of the past few years (under Biden) just slows to 1 or 2% that is a big problem. Layoffs will happen to improve bottom line profits. And the market would tank by 20%, maybe more. The market is so overvalued and priced for near future perfection. Anything less than that (and 1-2% growth is well below perfection), look out below in the markets.

Money is already flowing to European markets and even China (thanks to idiot Trump playing right into Russia and China's hands.) And their markets are actually undervalued, Europe and China.
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Outflows grew somewhat from Nov. but on net inflows are still greater than net outflows of capital. Also European markets are not undervalued, not if you understand the dynamics of their markets (and their massive energy constraint) and China is frankly uninvestable.
IMG_5521.jpeg
 
AlbionAmerican said:
Define negative economic impact because deportations could also lead to a hiring boom. May also kick off some more inflation too but Trump could get away with inflation if it’s also leading to higher wages being forced into the system via labor shortages. We have a bifurcated economy already so whatever you think about macro now may not be how policy changes work in reality.
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Lead to a hiring boom of who exactly? Americans are not going to do the jobs that the folks being deported do...at any wage. They simply will not do them. If you think they will, then you seriously over-estimate the work ethic of the average American.
 
wmheel1287 said:
Lead to a hiring boom of who exactly? Americans are not going to do the jobs that the folks being deported do...at any wage. They simply will not do them. If you think they will, then you seriously over-estimate the work ethic of the average American.
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This is nothing but right wing neocon nonsense. Americans don’t want to work a job where they’re paid nothing, importing labor drives down labor costs. Americans will do jobs if they’re paid a livable wage. Labor shortages force employers to entice available American workers by offering more money. There are tens of millions of people who could work if they’re enticed by a good enough salary.
 
I agree with some others that it's too early to make that declaration, but it will happen.

There's a reason I got out of the market. Either this bastard was going to stir up political violence again in the wake of an election loss, or he was going to win and then eventually destroy the economy, finally being unfettered. I predicted the latter, but it didn't really matter. Either result would be bad.

The market is obviously not a good gauge of the health of the economy. The bottom line could be trending horrible, and the market could still be going gangbusters.

I probably played it a bit conservatively, but at least I got out in the positive and with some relative peace of mind.
 
wmheel1287 said:
Lead to a hiring boom of who exactly? Americans are not going to do the jobs that the folks being deported do...at any wage. They simply will not do them. If you think they will, then you seriously over-estimate the work ethic of the average American.
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Maybe we could reverse the negative impact Trumpism has had on America by reversing this trend of having a whole bunch of men with nothing to do but bitch about the govt by paying them more to work rather than importing foreign labor to undercut them. Imagine that, what a novel idea!

This is especially true for young white males who clearly have radicalized in recent years. Or you could keep believing Bush/Reagan era propaganda about what “Americans” will and will not do. Pretty simple and obvious what the answer is.

IMG_5526.jpeg
 
AlbionAmerican said:
Define negative economic impact because deportations could also lead to a hiring boom. May also kick off some more inflation too but Trump could get away with inflation if it’s also leading to higher wages being forced into the system via labor shortages. We have a bifurcated economy already so whatever you think about macro now may not be how policy changes work in reality.
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Deportations lead to a hiring boom?

If an employed illegal immigrant is deported it creates a job opening that would be filled by a new employee, but is not a net gain of a job. The number of employed people remains the same, though I suppose it could impact the unemployment rate.
 
1moretimeagain said:
Deportations lead to a hiring boom?

If an employed illegal immigrant is deported it creates a job opening that would be filled by a new employee, but is not a net gain of a job. The number of employed people remains the same, though I suppose it could impact the unemployment rate.
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Well I tend to have a more radical view as to how much of our private equitized and highly financialized economy would be undermined by deportations. I fundamentally believe that a total revival of Main Street America is possible if we unwind everything that is operating at unsustainable scale in monopolized sectors. This is because cost disruptions will have massive reverberations in the sense that it could create an environment where all these monopolized industries could suddenly be undercut by smaller firms who aren’t as dependent on cheaper foreign labor inputs. Basically the Mom and Pop economy could see a total revival if business were to become more expensive for WalMart and Amazon (but this same process could hit many other industries who’ve grown as a result of making business more expensive for smaller firms). Which is also why I could be down with tariffs if its intention is to help Main Street America grow (which is what I care about most).
 
AlbionAmerican said:
Well I tend to have a more radical view as to how much of our private equitized and highly financialized economy would be undermined by deportations. I fundamentally believe that a total revival of Main Street America is possible if we unwind everything that is operating at unsustainable scale in monopolized sectors. This is because cost disruptions will have massive reverberations in the sense that it could create an environment where all these monopolized industries could suddenly be undercut by smaller firms who aren’t as dependent on cheaper foreign labor inputs. Basically the Mom and Pop economy could see a total revival if business were to become more expensive for WalMart and Amazon (but this same process could hit many other industries who’ve grown as a result of making business more expensive for smaller firms). Which is also why I could be down with tariffs if its intention is to help Main Street America grow (which is what I care about most).
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Come on up to Franklin Street kind of Chapel hills main Street and try to sell something other than t-shirts beer or whatever the customer wants and there's your main Street.

I remember having to buy a tennis shoes at the hardware store and pay like even back in the day $10 more a pair but they had tennis shoes Chuck Taylor's!
Locals ripping off locals is why Food Lion and Walmart whipped that ass.
I love the idea there's some local merchant loyalty but Amazon Kinda outruns main streets coverage!
 
AlbionAmerican said:
This is nothing but right wing neocon nonsense. Americans don’t want to work a job where they’re paid nothing, importing labor drives down labor costs. Americans will do jobs if they’re paid a livable wage. Labor shortages force employers to entice available American workers by offering more money. There are tens of millions of people who could work if they’re enticed by a good enough salary.
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Bull. I know these people. I grew up with them. They will bitch nonstop about immigrants but will NOT do those jobs. You could post jobs doing farm labor, roofing, concrete work, cleaning, etc for $80k and you wouldn't be able to fill them with proficient workers.
 
AlbionAmerican said:
This is nothing but right wing neocon nonsense. Americans don’t want to work a job where they’re paid nothing, importing labor drives down labor costs. Americans will do jobs if they’re paid a livable wage. Labor shortages force employers to entice available American workers by offering more money. There are tens of millions of people who could work if they’re enticed by a good enough salary.
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10’s of millions?

Really?!
 
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