Is the economy already tanking?

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AlbionAmerican said:
Maybe we could reverse the negative impact Trumpism has had on America by reversing this trend of having a whole bunch of men with nothing to do but bitch about the govt by paying them more to work rather than importing foreign labor to undercut them. Imagine that, what a novel idea!

This is especially true for young white males who clearly have radicalized in recent years. Or you could keep believing Bush/Reagan era propaganda about what “Americans” will and will not do. Pretty simple and obvious what the answer is.

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This demonstrates women entering the workforce in increasing numbers, not immigrants taking jobs from working class whites.
 
wmheel1287 said:
Bull. I know these people. I grew up with them. They will bitch nonstop about immigrants but will NOT do those jobs. You could post jobs doing farm labor, roofing, concrete work, cleaning, etc for $80k and you wouldn't be able to fill them with proficient workers.
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Working class whites might flock to construction jobs at $80K.

No roofer, concrete, farm, janitorial service, framer, etc. is going to pay $80K for labor.

Meat-packing isn’t paying $80K even for experienced labor and the white working class isn’t doing meat-packing.

No plumbing or electrical or HVAC company is paying $80K for a newbie.
 
Zoo_View said:
10’s of millions?

Really?!
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There's over 20m men between ages 18 and 65 who are either unemployed or are not in the labor force. That is A LOT of men who aren't working who historically would be working.

I know this idea might shock some but here it goes: what if there's a link between the decline of men dropping out of the workforce all together the last 40 years, and our politics gradually getting crazier and crazier? Wild, I know.
 
Zoo_View said:
This demonstrates women entering the workforce in increasing numbers, not immigrants taking jobs from working class whites.
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It literally does not, I left women entirely out of the discussion.

I'm not talking about immigrants taking jobs, I'm talking about wiring our economy in a way where it necessitates importing immigrants who will undercut the power of domestic labor. Maybe you aren't smart enough to understand the difference, but there is one.
 
AlbionAmerican said:
It literally does not, I left women entirely out of the discussion.

I'm not talking about immigrants taking jobs, I'm talking about wiring our economy in a way where it necessitates importing immigrants who will undercut the power of domestic labor. Maybe you aren't smart enough to understand the difference, but there is one.
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So, according to your chart, who replaced men in the workforce?
 
Zoo_View said:
So, according to your chart, who replaced men in the workforce?
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Why do you think the economy has a cap on what the workforce can be? We have policies that were put in place in the 1980s which have been deliberately designed to harm blue collar Americans and the problem has never been addressed, its only compounded over time. We redesigned the economy to be one which would spur innovation, which was a good thing, but this is what has split us in half as a country. It's paid an enormous amount to those with higher education who have been able to participate in it, while leaving behind anyone without a degree. Why do you think this was okay? Do you really think we'd have these levels of populism had we been able to manage this process in a less disruptive way?

Deliberately stripping out the entire manufacturing base of America helped some and hurt others. We deliberately financialized the economy, creating a situation of mass consolidation across every industry, especially in banking. It's given the biggest banks enormous power over re-organizing our economy as a whole. We went from a high of 14,496 banks in 1984 to 4,036 in 2024. What main street needs more than anything (and has always needed) is a supply of credit to spur growth. Banking consolidation in my opinion is the absolute number one reason why we're at where we're at. We should be chartering a ton more banks but we don't, in fact last year we chartered 9 new banks. In 1984, we chartered 391 new banks. Even in 1999 we were chartering 232 new banks. So this isn't about "oh the immigrants took our jobs". No, there is a deliberate connection between bank consolidation and the drop in who provides credit for Main Street (as this is the constraint on how working class jobs can have wage growth). We deliberately allowed the monopolization of industries (which REMOVES opportunity in this country) which then opens up for private equity d!ckheads to consolidate their control and power over every industry in America practically, which then gives them pricing control essentially.

Now, in this world, we have created an informational economy which has been helpful to women, but its come at a massive cost to men without education, and that's not the way to have a stable, healthy society. I dont understand why this is so hard for you to comprehend, there is no reason why policy choices cannot be made to reverse all of this, since it was policy choices which created the problem in the first place.
 
you have bought into the red lie if you believe that no one will work at certain jobs to justify hiring and paying illegals peanuts

i have a small farm now that i have retired and employ 10 illegals a day at $50 each at absolute shit jobs. no bullshit paperwork...no bullshit insurance and they are happy as can be at end of day when i pay them cash. most all of them were making $2 a day in central america. can you imagine getting that type of increase in your pay? its an unbelievable opportunity for them. why would any american slave all day for 50 when they can make that on welfare food stamps along with medicaid and do nothing all day?

if i posted these jobs at $200 a day with full benefits id have a line of white people to choose from. this holds true for a co with 10 employees or 2000.

the blame lies within the system and who is hiring. i donate everything we produce here and lose money, but ive been very fortunate and able to do it. for profit co's hire cheap illegal workers because of greed and really no punishment at all for doing so....not because whites wont do the jobs. its total dishonesty.
 
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nycfan said:
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Take note, Donald...

When Kudlow is no longer sucking your pecker and demurring when it comes to the future of your economic policies, it may be prudent for you to think twice before continuing down this path of economic suicide. The 2026 campaign season is less than a year away.
 
heelinhell said:
Take note, Donald...

When Kudlow is no longer sucking your pecker and demurring when it comes to the future of your economic policies, it may be prudent for you to think twice before continuing down this path of economic suicide. The 2026 campaign season is less than a year away.
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They don't care. They don't intend to have any further elections interfere with their schemes.
 
superrific said:
Well, there's not just the tariffs. There's the deportations (although they seem to be moving slowly), and the mass layoffs in the federal government. It is a bad idea to pursue a contractionary fiscal policy when also raising tariffs. It's the most idiotic economic policy ever.

I'm not sure GDP growth will turn negative either. Too much uncertainty. But I'd say it's entirely realistic.
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Also, the removal of the department of education and research grants would cripple colleges and make it hard for primary schools to operate. That would ripple through the economy.
 
AlbionAmerican said:
This is nothing but right wing neocon nonsense. Americans don’t want to work a job where they’re paid nothing, importing labor drives down labor costs. Americans will do jobs if they’re paid a livable wage. Labor shortages force employers to entice available American workers by offering more money. There are tens of millions of people who could work if they’re enticed by a good enough salary.
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But to pay the wage that I believe make Americans would demand would likely make a lot of industries unprofitable.

Also consider that every single fast food restaurant has signs that they are hiring at up to $16 an hour. How much are farms and meat processors willing to pay?

At minimum it would lead to inflation which would mean the fed couldn’t lower rates to offset economic slowdown.
 
ChapelHillSooner said:
Also, the removal of the department of education and research grants would cripple colleges and make it hard for primary schools to operate. That would ripple through the economy.
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I think we should probably include that in the category of DOGE carnage.

I'm not sure just how big an effect this will have. I've been trying to get my head around it a little bit, but obviously the lack of any transparency makes that really hard.

On one hand, it sure seems like a lot of people. On the other hand, the economy is really big. Facebook laid off 15K workers not long ago, IIRC. How much a ripple effect did that have? And is the scale of research cuts much higher than that? Chevron is laying off 20K. Now, facebook workers are unlikely to face a serious cash crunch, so they probably didn't have to adjust their consumption patterns as much as a lab tech or post-doc. So there's that. Still, take Vanderbilt, for instance (since it was one of the schools publicly announcing how it would be struggling). What % of the Nashville population works at Vanderbilt? Layoffs and freezes at Vanderbilt -- what % of the population is that?

It could hurt smaller communities that are more dependent on a university. Back in the day, something like this would pulverize the Chapel Hill economy. That might still be true, although I don't really know how much RTP buffers for that. But schools like Bucknell (Lewisburg, PA), RPI (Troy NY), VPI (Blacksburg WVa) are the main industries in their localities and cutback could definitely ripple. On the other hand, those communities are small and their rise or fall doesn't do much to the local economy.

In terms of state schools, U of M is in Ann Arbor and it really supports the local community. Missouri is in Columbia, which isn't very big. You'd know places like OK, Kansas, Nebraska better than me. Wherever Penn State is, it's most of the economy. Michigan State is in East Lansing, which is small and from what I understand not all that connected to Lansing (which itself is not all that big).

But again, it remains to be seen just how many people are getting laid off. 1,000 people at U of M sounds like a lot, but what % of the U of M workforce is that? I don't know.
 
The Trump economic policies if carried out fully could well produce stagflation
Firing lots of folks and slashing govt spending reduces growth and leads to recession

Tarriffs and tax cuts for wealthy and large corps are inflationary,
 
heelslegup said:
The Trump economic policies if carried out fully could well produce stagflation
Firing lots of folks and slashing govt spending reduces growth and leads to recession

Tarriffs and tax cuts for wealthy and large corps are inflationary,
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I don't think maintaining tax cuts that are set to expire would be inflationary because inflation is a rate of change metric -- and nothing would be changing.
 
ChapelHillSooner said:
But to pay the wage that I believe make Americans would demand would likely make a lot of industries unprofitable.

Also consider that every single fast food restaurant has signs that they are hiring at up to $16 an hour. How much are farms and meat processors willing to pay?

At minimum it would lead to inflation which would mean the fed couldn’t lower rates to offset economic slowdown.
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If a business is only profitable if it requires cheap foreign labor, then why should that business exist?

And big LOL regarding inflation. Oh my god, how will we ever get by as a country without our fast food restaurants and our disease ridden factory farms?
 
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