Israel launches attack on Iran | US bombs Iran nuke sites

[Mulberry Heel]

Donald Trump and "intelligence" are a contradiction in terms, and the two are basically incompatible.

 

[Paine]

You can talk Orientalism all day with me (though I'd get bored and probably so would you) and probably with a dozen or two dozen other posters. But my guess it that the general population of posters doesn't know what that means. Just my guess. I could be wrong.

Oh, I have no doubt you’re right. That post was more of a pressure release on my own part. Consider it separate from a wider political program of mine. Sometimes we all like to flex our knowledge.

 

[nycfan]

 

[BlueSmoke]

The only talking point that matters is that this wasn't Trump's plan. He wanted to make a deal. This was Bibi's plan.

So if we want to know what comes next, better follow Bibi's thinking. Bibi thinks Regime change is a necessity. So watch how this evolves.

 

[nycfan]

well, at what point did he tell others?

 

[Zoo_View]

Certainly? You are posting with a lot more confidence than the known facts on the ground warrant. Rule No. 1 of military actions is that both sides lie about what is actually happening for propaganda purposes.

And, I in this specific case we have Trump, Trump’s Administration, Bibi and the Israeli government and military, and Iran. Add in Putin and Russia’s comments.

Not a believable or trustworthy person in the bunch.

 

[Mulberry Heel]

Somehow, given our history in the Middle East, I seriously doubt those threats are going to deter the Iranians or some other radical group from trying to retaliate.

 

[superrific]

1. North Korea's stated goals are much more "destroy the US" than Iran's. I mean, North Korea still honors the old Comintern dream of worldwide communism.
2. How the fuck would Iran get a nuclear bomb to the US? It's impossible. Ironically, Trump wants to build the expensive boondoggle missile defense system, which is sort of redundant with this bombing but whatever.

We already have the ability to shoot down a single ICBM. We've had that ability for decades. It's the more than one ICBM that's a problem. Iran has no ICBMs.

3. If Iran wants to destroy the Great Satan, they're going to need more than one nuke. I mean, seriously. Russia and the US have literally thousands of nukes. One nuke would probably get intercepted; if it didn't, it would hit at most one US city; and then Iran would be completely and utterly destroyed. Obviously hitting a city would be bad, but the point is that Iran isn't going to try.

4. OBL proved that the way to defeat America is to cause internal divisions. The Muslim world hates the US now, more than any other time in history. I knew a guy who wrote on Indonesian law and trade policy. Indonesia loved Clinton. It was cooperating with the US on all sorts of development projects. Then after the disastrous Iraq debacle and W's generally anti-Muslim foreign policy, Indonesia stopped cooperating so readily and there was tons of domestic political pressure to push back.

5. What the Islamists want more than anything is unity in the Islamic world, which can best be achieved by arraying all Muslim countries against the west, which is much easier to do when the west acts like emperors or tyrants toward them.

 

[Duke Mu]

A Total FOMO. will and can Iran block or mine the Straits of Hormuz.

 

[ZZLPHeels]

Dude. The Soviets got the bomb in 1949 I think. China followed. India and Pakistan have nukes. Israel has a nuke. North Korea has nukes.

All of those countries have been ruled by religious fanatics and/or even worse fanatics like Kim Jong Un. India and Israel are currently ruled by religious fanatics, and just give Pakistan a few years and they will swing back.

How many times have any of those countries used their nukes? Oh right. But you think the religious fanatics in Iran -- unlike the religious fanatics ruling those other countries -- would self-destruct? Explain how the Supreme Leader of Iran is 86 years old, then. If he didn't care about his own welfare, if he didn't care about his life, how the fuck did he get so old? Wouldn't the religious fanatic have done something, well, fanatical? Look at their councils of clerics. Old, old, old. They are not suicidal and never have been.

The burden is on you and all proponents of bombing to provide evidence that Iran -- uniquely among the world's governments -- would be suicidal end-time armageddonists. Since they have never been that way, it's going to be a tough case but we'll see what you come up with.

So, just to be clear, your argument is that more unstable regimes with nuclear weapons is a good thing?

 

[Duke Mu]

For the sake of discussion I’m not really interested in whether we are in a full scale war or not. Assume we are at war (not a fan) does Iran have any hope of keeping the Strait closed. I guess they could sink all of the tankers in the area causing massive oil spills and ecological destruction. But can they hold the Strait for any amount of time before they are annihilated. Is it a suicide mission?
Googled quickly the depth, I’m not sure it’s something that can be blocked with a graveyard of ships at 690’ but maybe there are places that could be blocked.
Militarily Iran seems impotent. Maybe they strike back at the US but I see that option being terror attacks not full on assaults.

The Straits can be mined.

 

[superrific]

It is just comical the way the administration is talking about bringing Iran to the table for diplomacy.

WE SOLVED THE PROBLEM WITH DIPLOMACY. Trump tore it up. There will be no further deals, like there are no trade deals, because you can't deal with someone when your word is shit. Trump has made an entire life's work of going back on his word -- it's sort of amazing that even with his incredibly rapacious behavior toward his contractors, he STILL ran casinos into the ground. I guess he thinks that will fly on the international stage. It will not.

Trump has boasted about 90 trade deals in 90 days. We have zero trade deals, given that the UK deal has not actually been implemented or fleshed out to my knowledge. Trump has made zero deals period. He ain't gonna get a diplomatic deal with Iran.

 

[ZZLPHeels]

Aren’t you middle aged? Because this is some 16yo TikTok brain shit right here. My god, you think the IRGC response is comprised of the last 1-2 weeks? This is a civilization that measures itself in millennia; they aren’t going to knee jerk respond with their most substantial leverage point. The current government of Iran has survived western pariah statehood for how long? Not to mention being backed by China and Russia.

Good god.

So Iran has been letting Israel absolutely dominate it over the last two weeks out of choice? Not a chance. They are weak. They want to respond significantly. They can't.

 

[nycfan]

 

[Mulberry Heel]

I agree with you. We have no idea how this will turn out. That seems to me to be far more reason for pessimism than for optimism, but anyone saying for sure what will happen from here is getting way out over his skiis.

Since we have no idea of how it will turn out, that would seem to be a good point for not having bombed Iran and thus having wait and see how it "will all turn out." As has been pointed out here numerous times, it has been claimed for the past 25 years that Iran is "close" to having a nuke, with very little evidence that has ever been the case. And as has also been pointed out, these bombings didn't destroy Iran's potential to build a nuke - even the Joint Chiefs said that it was way too early to determine that.

 

[Duke Mu]

And that line of thinking is exactly what will draw us into a long drawn out conflict. Netanyahu Has been ringing the alarm bells about Iran and nukes for decades. They’ve been 90% there since 1995.

We just can’t seem to learn our lesson WRT that region.

They’re not going to roll over and play dead.

Our intelligence said Iran was at 60% enrichment. Not even the first stage. 90% is weapons grade. It's not easy to get there.

 

[ZZLPHeels]

You are 100% correct here. I don't think your political program benefits from terms like Orientalist. I'm almost positive that your interlocutor here has no idea what that means, and probably is going to skip over it rather than think about or ask. And you know what? There's no reason he should know what that means. Very few college grads do unless they study in a particular discipline. I know what it means because I'm unusually intellectually curious (especially years ago) and I absorb information like a sponge.

This poster has said he's a fire fighter. Of course that doesn't mean he couldn't understand Said. But it does mean that he's unlikely to have encountered that terminology, and it's OK that he hasn't. Fire fighting is a noble pursuit, but one that takes different training. I'm positive ZZLPHeels cannot teach law. Statistically speaking, it's unlikely he ever could (generally speaking, law professors come from the top 1% of a profession culled from the top 30-40% of college grads, who are themselves the top 30-40% of the population). But by the same token, I can't be a firefighter and I doubt I ever could. Nobody wants my dumb pontificating ass fighting fires. It would be like that Simpsons episode where the nerds calculate air resistance when they are supposed to push the guy out of the way of an oncoming car.

You can talk Orientalism all day with me (though I'd get bored and probably so would you) and probably with a dozen or two dozen other posters. But my guess it that the general population of posters doesn't know what that means. Just my guess. I could be wrong.

What an elitist post, attempting to judge someone's intelligence by their occupation. I used to watch a show called South Park. I'm 100% positive that this show is beneath someone of your stature and education, so I'll summarize an episode that they did about people like you. Basically, the people they depicted got their jollies off by farting into a wine glass and then inhaling their own scent. This sounds like an activity that you might enjoy.

 

[RaiGuy]

well, at what point did he tell others?

He probably decided it after Netanyahu blackmailed him like he did Clinton lol

Netanyahu said to have offered Lewinsky tapes for Pollard | The Times of Israel

www.timesofisrael.com

 

[Mulberry Heel]

Agree on the last part, but Israel did exactly what it needed to do. Iran's nuclear capabilities have been set back substantially with very limited casualties in return. Iran was so weak that, as another poster put it, it would have been almost criminal not to take advantage of this opportunity. They are likely never going to be weaker than they are right now.

Then why in the world did we need to bomb them? You keep saying that they are weaker than ever and even just admitted that their nuclear capabilities have been set back substantially, all of which negates the need for us to bomb them. Even the Joint Chiefs just admitted that we don't know if these bombings have destroyed Iran's capability to build a nuclear bomb, and it almost certainly hasn't. If Iran is so weak and Israel has them under control then there was no need for us to bomb them. You're basically making the argument against your own point, dude.

 

[ZZLPHeels]

This is false.

The United States may destroy the Fordow enrichment plant. It won’t make the Iranian nuclear threat go away

If Israel decides to continue down the military path against Iran’s nuclear program, it has no choice but to ensure that the Fordow enrichment plant no longer poses a threat.

thebulletin.org

This article does not discount my post. In fact, it largely confirms that the attack on Fordow was a necessary act. It also states that Iran was a week away from being able to develop a nuclear weapon.