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Israel launches attack on Iran

Absent more conclusive intelligence, Israel's attack should be regarded as preventative vs. preemptive. Preemptive attacks (Israel in 1967) are recognized as legitimate in the world community. Preventative attacks aren't, and they rarely work out well strategically for the instigator (e.g. America in Iraq, Sparta vs. Athens, Pearl Harbor).

15 years ago, we unleashed Stuxnet against the Iranian nuclear program, which is widely considered to have been a successful and devastating operation. In hindsight, it probably set Iranian nuclear development back only a couple of years. Unless the Israelis hit the Fordow facility, i fear that this attack will have done the same - Iran's nuclear program will be impaired, but back stronger than ever in one to two years.

Diplomacy is not a panacea but more of a temporary measure. The notion that we can wait out the Iranian nuclear weapons program until more moderate forces take control of Iran's government hasn't been borne out by the history of the last 46 years. The hard-liners continue to control Iran's governing and military infrastructure. The most effective inhibition continues to be deterrence, which once invoked, loses some of its power.

With last night's actions, I worry that Israel's only winning strategic outcomes are through either (a) regime change or (b) having the US use their bunker-busting technology to destroy the Fordow facility. Both require US involvement. That's the next big shoe to drop - does the Israeli action push the US to create a wider war, or do we pull back and let the literal dust clear?

I have no affinity for the current Israeli government, but they have put the US in a neat little box. At these times, it would be helpful to have a US government that is more appreciative of strategic concerns than tactical ones, but that is not currently the case.
 
nycfan said:
The Israeli Ambassador to the USA seems unwilling to say Israel expects the U.S. to help protect Israel against an Iranian response.

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If he says he expects it, there's a very good chance, because he's a douchebag, Trump will do the opposite.
 
ZenMode said:
If true, I completely agree with the attack.

Allowing Iran, or any Muslim fundamentalist country, to have nukes is a risk the world can't take. Especially Israel.
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You would think the experts here would agree but I’m sure there will be some who continue to be on the wrong side of right.
 
Huh? said:
With last night's actions, I worry that Israel's only winning strategic outcomes are through either (a) regime change or (b) having the US use their bunker-busting technology to destroy the Fordow facility. Both require US involvement. That's the next big shoe to drop - does the Israeli action push the US to create a wider war, or do we pull back and let the literal dust clear?
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Israel knows that last night's acts will force the U.S.'s hand. There will be no good options for the US as this goes forward.

While no one thinks it is a good idea for Iran to have nuclear capabilities, Iran knows that if they were ever to use such a weapon on Israel their country will cease to exist. With no deal in place, Israel knew this was the time to strike and can simply claim that Iran was week's away from having a nuclear weapon...
 
HintonJamesHeel said:
The majority of the world will align with Israel on this (Gaza is completely different). Democrats would be wise to not try to be anti-Trump on this.
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Both things can be true, though. We can agree that the world will align with Israel about this, while also remaining concerned about how Trump has the potential to escalate the crisis with his rhetoric and decision making.
 
HintonJamesHeel said:
The majority of the world will align with Israel on this (Gaza is completely different). Democrats would be wise to not try to be anti-Trump on this.
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There’s really not much for Dems to say other than “told ya so.” Donny 2-Dolls isn’t the worlds greatest dealmaker, and had no business scrapping the original deal leaving nothing in its place.

Now all we can do is hope for the best.
 
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Will the majority of the world support Israel’s attack?

The majority?

I doubt it.

Will a majority oppose it? I doubt that as well.

I suspect that the nations with the money will start or expand or accelerate their own nuclear weapon programs.
 
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