From James Boswell on the Elections in Honduras:
Latin America Risk Report | Boz | Substack
With most of the votes in Honduras counted, National Party candidate Nasry Asfura has a slim lead over Liberal Party candidate Salvador Nasralla, 40.5% to 39.2% at the time of this writing, about a 42,000 vote difference.
Honduras electoral authorities have struggled with the vote count and the technology, and have failed to communicate well with the public and the key political parties. There have been long pauses with no results. Over 15% of the tally sheets have discrepancies that must be reviewed. Due to the issues, trust in the process has collapsed. Few citizens believe what is going on reflects their choices. Most politicians suspect that their political opponents are engaged in some sort of scheme to manipulate the outcome and/or are scheming themselves to come out on top of what they view as a non-transparent process.
Even as the close count continues and disputes remain, the Trump administration has warned that any change in the outcome away from Asfura will be declared a stolen election.
Rixi Moncada and the ruling Libre Party, which received fewer than 20% of the vote, have called for a full redo of the election. Is that legal or constitutional? Probably not. But Honduras is sometimes a country where elections take place in a Calvinball and power politics environment. Everyone makes up the rules as they go along, and the big question is who enforces the outcome.
Salvador Nasralla has rejected the call to redo the election, but is calling for the vote count to be carefully reviewed for as long as necessary to demonstrate how Asfura stole votes from him.
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Scenarios
Most likely: President Asfura - Election challenges rarely succeed. The person who is winning the election after the initial vote count usually wins in the end. Asfura will face a fight in the transition and will struggle throughout his term due to the perception that his win was not fully legitimate.
Second possible option: President Nasralla - The less likely outcome is that a combination of recounts and backroom negotiations lead to Nasralla taking the presidency. Getting to this result is all about a post-election pact. He can’t do this on his own and would likely need an alliance with either Asfura or Moncada to pull it off. He would have to offer concessions to that person/party to make it through the transition.
Least likely but plausible: Libre remains in power - Maduro lost an election in Venezuela in 2024 and remained in the presidency. So did Juan Orlando Hernandez in Honduras in 2017. Libre can try to hold on to power, and the threat that they might succeed at that gives them leverage in negotiations over this election result, even while winning fewer than 20% of the vote.
Things to watch
How does the military respond? - As I wrote before the election, the military is a key actor in the campaign and vote counting process. They will be critical to tipping the balance to any of the three scenarios above.
The Tegucigalpa mayoral race - That mayoral election is even closer than the presidential results, with the candidates for the National and Libre parties separated by an extremely tight margin. There will be disputes and recounts in that race, but it will also be a bargaining chip. It’s possible to imagine scenarios where in a backroom and undisclosed agreement, Asfura offers the position to Libre in exchange for a smooth transition or Nasralla guarantees the position to the National Party as part of getting past the election controversy.
International observers - They’ve been critical of the process so far, but are almost certain to reject calls to redo the election. Observers are great for saying when election processes have been clean, but struggle in contested scenarios like this. Still, their comments will shape the outcome and the perceived legitimacy of the next president.
Trump - On top of sanctions, don’t forget that there is an aircraft carrier not far from the coast of Honduras. The US president may be eager to show off his new Trump Corollary here, particularly with the China-Taiwan dispute up for grabs in this election.
Protests - All three parties can put people in the streets. Libre is calling for demonstrations this weekend, and while their actual support appears diminished, a big and disruptive public rally would put further doubt on the results that show they have only 20% support. One difference between today and 2017 is that the security forces appear to remain on the side of Libre for now, playing a decisive role in how they will repress the opposition while Castro-Zelaya remain in power.
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