NBA Thread

dcf2 said:
The East/West talent imbalance is already stark but we now have the #1 and #2 picks going to the West, may see Giannis traded to the West, and seem to have lost Tatum.

Orlando might want to push in some chips and go for it next year.
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Well, the lottery has been mighty kind to the West recently.

But this is actually expected in a league with unbalanced schedules. Which is why it's important to balance them. If the West has most of the talent, then the good West teams will crush the bad West teams, pushing down the bad teams record and then setting them up for further talent acquisition via the draft. In reality, the bad West teams are probably better than the bad East teams but that's not how the lottery sees it.

Of course, that's not what happened this year exactly (arguably for the Spurs, maybe) but it has in the past.
 
www.nytimes.com

Wild NBA Draft Lottery night opens door to blockbuster trade possibilities

Could the Mavericks, Spurs and/or Sixers shop their unexpected top-three picks? What will happen in Boston?
www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

"So much for the idea of Cooper Flagg going to a 20-win team. Instead, a statistically improbable Dallas Mavericks-San Antonio Spurs-Philadelphia 76ers-Charlotte Hornets top four upended all our previous assumptions about what might happen in the lead-up to the NBA Draft. The odds of the Mavs and Spurs landing 1-2 were 1 in 1,000; the Mavs-Spurs-Sixers combo in the top three was 1 in 10,000."

NBA Draft Lottery History - RealGM

NBA Draft Lottery History - RealGM
basketball.realgm.com

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superrific said:
Well, the lottery has been mighty kind to the West recently.

But this is actually expected in a league with unbalanced schedules. Which is why it's important to balance them. If the West has most of the talent, then the good West teams will crush the bad West teams, pushing down the bad teams record and then setting them up for further talent acquisition via the draft. In reality, the bad West teams are probably better than the bad East teams but that's not how the lottery sees it.

Of course, that's not what happened this year exactly (arguably for the Spurs, maybe) but it has in the past.
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It might also be worth exploring seeding the playoffs 1-16 and the playin 13-20. They will either need to realign of break geography if they expand to include Vegas and Seattle anyway - seems a good opportunity to balance as you suggest. If the players object to more travel you might just make the season a week longer and add more rest days.
 
While we're at it, trading the 2nd and 14th picks for the #1 pick might be enticing for the Spurs. Flagg fits in nicely on their roster. And it's certainly a better trade for the Mavs than the Luka/Lebron one was.
 
sringwal said:
While we're at it, trading the 2nd and 14th picks for the #1 pick might be enticing for the Spurs. Flagg fits in nicely on their roster. And it's certainly a better trade for the Mavs than the Luka/Lebron one was.
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There's a 0% chance, in my view, of the Mavs trading the #1 pick.

If the Spurs want to trade with them, AD is more likely. But I don't think that happens either. I think the Spurs take a PG and build around Castle, Wemby and the PG.
 
superrific said:
There's a 0% chance, in my view, of the Mavs trading the #1 pick.

If the Spurs want to trade with them, AD is more likely. But I don't think that happens either. I think the Spurs take a PG and build around Castle, Wemby and the PG.
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I agree that it is highly unlikely, but I'd have said the same about the Mavs trading away Luka.

I highly doubt that the Spurs would be interested in AD. He is well past his prime.

Going after a PG also works as Harper is probably the best available, but I don't see how he fits in with Castle and Fox.

This is probably just wishful thinking on my part, as a Spurs fan, but a lineup of Castle, Fox, Barnes, Flagg, Wemby has a chance to be extremely dangerous, and is probably Barnes' best shot at getting a ring.

You also have Vassell coming off the bench, so the Spurs are already extremely deep at the guard spot, regardless of what happens with Paul.
 
superrific said:
That is only true since 2019, when lottery odds were flattened. It would be cosmically improbable for the worst team to have never won the first pick. As of now, it's merely unlucky.
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Since 1985– the year of the first lottery— the team with the worst record has won the lottery (that is, got the #1 pick) 8 times. It happened 4 times in a row between 2015 and 2018.
 
lawtig02 said:
On further reflection, I would only do a lottery for teams 1-5, and I would have the following weighted odds:

1 - 40%
2 - 30%
3 - 15%
4 - 10%
5 - 5%

Starting with team 6, no lottery, just straight order of finish.
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I’d be cool with dividing the lottery up into sections. Worst three teams for picks 1-3, then next three worst for 4-6, then same thing with 7-10, then 11-14.
 
sringwal said:
I agree that it is highly unlikely, but I'd have said the same about the Mavs trading away Luka.

I highly doubt that the Spurs would be interested in AD. He is well past his prime.

Going after a PG also works as Harper is probably the best available, but I don't see how he fits in with Castle and Fox.

This is probably just wishful thinking on my part, as a Spurs fan, but a lineup of Castle, Fox, Barnes, Flagg, Wemby has a chance to be extremely dangerous, and is probably Barnes' best shot at getting a ring.

You also have Vassell coming off the bench, so the Spurs are already extremely deep at the guard spot, regardless of what happens with Paul.
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You mean “another ring…” Barnes already has a ring 😎

As does McAdoo (x2) on that Dubs squad.
 
Icky Mettle said:
Since 1985– the year of the first lottery— the team with the worst record has won the lottery (that is, got the #1 pick) 8 times. It happened 4 times in a row between 2015 and 2018.
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Well, the lottery is about 35 years old, and the odds of the worst team getting the #1 pick are 25%, so you do the math.
 
farce© said:
I don’t believe it was rigged, but I do think it shows the NBA lottery system isn’t working. The goal of a draft is to allow the bottom teams to acquire talent so they can improve. They established the lottery to avoid teams tanking. That hasn’t worked as more teams are tanking than ever. But there are too many teams in the lottery, and the worst team has never won the first pick. They need to limit the ability to win the first pick to the bottom 4 or 5 teams.

There are currently 14 teams in the lottery. They should eliminate the play-in losers from the lottery and their draft position should be determined by their finish like playoff teams. That leaves 12 lottery-eligible teams. Have 3 separate lotteries to determine the first four picks among the four worst teams, a separate drawing for teams 5-8, then 9-12. They can weight the teams chances within the different buckets if that is preferable, but it eliminates teams jumping from 12 or 14 to number 1. That will avoid teams barely missing the playoffs getting the top pick. And we should just forget the notion of stopping tanking because nothing they have tried has worked.
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Love this idea.
 
sringwal said:
I agree that it is highly unlikely, but I'd have said the same about the Mavs trading away Luka.

I highly doubt that the Spurs would be interested in AD. He is well past his prime.

Going after a PG also works as Harper is probably the best available, but I don't see how he fits in with Castle and Fox.

This is probably just wishful thinking on my part, as a Spurs fan, but a lineup of Castle, Fox, Barnes, Flagg, Wemby has a chance to be extremely dangerous, and is probably Barnes' best shot at getting a ring.

You also have Vassell coming off the bench, so the Spurs are already extremely deep at the guard spot, regardless of what happens with Paul.
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AD has many years left if he can play PF. Between Wemby and AD, they could man the 4 and 5 and be a terror on defense.

When you have the #2 pick, you don't worry about fit. I mean, maybe don't pick a Wemby clone, but the goal has to be to get the best player. Then you deal someone. I'm not sure Fox and Castle fit that well themselves, and I would think Castle could be moved for a piece that fits the Spurs roster a little. Or maybe Sochan. In any event, Devin Vassell is not a reason to avoid taking Harper.

How long is Fox under contract? He has one year left? Two? You take Harper, play him 20 mpg this year and he becomes the starter next.
 
Icky Mettle said:
Haha. That’s not the correct math. It’s 2025.
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All right. 40 years. 8 out of 40 is 20%, which is still very much in line with the odds. Plus, for the first five years, the lottery odds were flat; and then from 1990 to 1994, the first place team had only a 16% chance.

So for the first nine or ten years, the worst team had a 14-16% chance to win the lottery. Thereafter it went to 25%, before returning to 14% after 2019. I'm not going to do the math there, but my guess is that in the aggregate, the overall odds for the worst team are about 20%.
 
superrific said:
AD has many years left if he can play PF. Between Wemby and AD, they could man the 4 and 5 and be a terror on defense.

When you have the #2 pick, you don't worry about fit. I mean, maybe don't pick a Wemby clone, but the goal has to be to get the best player. Then you deal someone. I'm not sure Fox and Castle fit that well themselves, and I would think Castle could be moved for a piece that fits the Spurs roster a little. Or maybe Sochan. In any event, Devin Vassell is not a reason to avoid taking Harper.

How long is Fox under contract? He has one year left? Two? You take Harper, play him 20 mpg this year and he becomes the starter next.
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Well reasoned post, although I have never really been sold on AD. He isn't someone that I would build around, despite his strengths.
 
sringwal said:
Well reasoned post, although I have never really been sold on AD. He isn't someone that I would build around, despite his strengths.
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And the great thing about having him on the Spurs: they wouldn't have to build around him, because Wemby.

For the Spurs, AD could be like a rich man's Al Horford.
 
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