Russia - Ukraine “peace negotiations”

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From the Russian view, things on the ground are improving( the economy remains troubled). General Mordvichev has just been made Russia's commander of Land Forces. He's Russia's most successful general of the current war, and this is his second promotion since the start of the war, he was commander of the 8th CAA South MD, then became commander of the Central MD. I don't think, on practical level, that he will leave the front lines. Instead I suspect he will be coordinating the war effort but from a higher level position.

 
superrific said:
Which is like saying neither. It's basically like that old logic table: If X & Y, and X is false, then it's just Y
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Which is fine with me. If the outcome of this is Ukraine gets to join NATO, that’s far better than what Trump is trying to negotiate.
 
Batt Boy said:
From the Russian view, things on the ground are improving( the economy remains troubled). General Mordvichev has just been made Russia's commander of Land Forces. He's Russia's most successful general of the current war, and this is his second promotion since the start of the war, he was commander of the 8th CAA South MD, then became commander of the Central MD. I don't think, on practical level, that he will leave the front lines. Instead I suspect he will be coordinating the war effort but from a higher level position.

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But can he stay alive?
 
lawtig02 said:
Which is fine with me. If the outcome of this is Ukraine gets to join NATO, that’s far better than what Trump is trying to negotiate.
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I don't think Ukraine joins Nato and I don't think it would be wise for Nato to accept it. At least not for a while.

There are other ways of deterring Russian aggression. If Ukraine joins Nato and then Russia attacks, it would become a test of the alliance's survival. Does everyone really want to be obliged to come to Ukraine's defense? It's not a favorable theater.
 
superrific said:
I don't think Ukraine joins Nato and I don't think it would be wise for Nato to accept it. At least not for a while.

There are other ways of deterring Russian aggression. If Ukraine joins Nato and then Russia attacks, it would become a test of the alliance's survival. Does everyone really want to be obliged to come to Ukraine's defense? It's not a favorable theater.
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Yeah it wouldn’t be my first choice either, but that presents a chicken or egg scenario. No, it wouldn’t be good to have to defend Ukraine. But Ukraine in NATO makes another Russian invasion much less likely. I assume that’s why all the other former Soviet countries and Turkey were allowed in. Having to defend any of them would be awful.

Now, I get that some people think letting them in was a mistake, but if they’re in, I don’t see why Ukraine should not be.
 
lawtig02 said:
But can he stay alive?
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who knows, but he appears to be no stooge. He's not at titty bars off Pokrovka Street or going for runs with his Garmin watch broadcasting his stats. But the UA are clever. We will see. My point is that from the US military assessment of him, he is very effective
 
Batt Boy said:
who knows, but he appears to be no stooge. He's not at titty bars off Pokrovka Street or going for runs with his Garmin watch broadcasting his stats. But the UA are clever. We will see. My point is that from the US military assessment of him, he is very effective
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I can tell you what Ukraine will do. Not going to consider anything but a ceasefire until after the Russian offensive and then reassess. From their point of view, its unlikely that Russia will gain anywhere near what a peace agreement would mean they would have to give up.
 
This new Russian General has been around in many active sectors of this war. Sure he's got some success, but at great cost and time. A pretty good case can be made that Ukraine's military is much better now then even a year ago, while Russia has seriously degraded. So I rather doubt this new general will make Ukraine more inclined to give up stuff under a peace agreement.
 
I just hope the UA doesn't lose the war before the Istanbul talks finish.

Institute for the Study of War

Ukrainian and Russian delegations met in Istanbul on May 16 but made little progress towards agreeing to a full ceasefire or a peace settlement to Russia's war against Ukraine.
understandingwar.org understandingwar.org
 
ISW previously assessed that Russia faces a number of compounding materiel, defense industrial, manpower, and economic issues that threaten Russia's ability to continue the war in Ukraine in the long term.[20]
Putin is likely prioritizing dividing Ukraine's Western allies and weakening Western support to Ukraine in order to secure his desired end state in negotiations, rather than effectively addressing Russia's domestic problems. Putin’s decision to intensify offensive operations throughout Ukraine in March and April 2025 is only exacerbating these issues and underscores his commitment to pressuring Ukraine in negotiations. ISW continues to assess that increased Western – especially US – military aid and economic sanctions are necessary to enable Ukraine to inflict significant battlefield losses on Russia and force Putin to either change his theory of victory or make an economically painful and unpopular decision to implement another partial involuntary reserve call-up. FROM LINK

Well, according to the paragraph from the link, all Putin is doing is trying to pressure Ukraine for negotiations. If I were Ukraine and read the first sentence, I wouldn't be thinking of giving up prematurely.
 
Just curious. Why is it a priority for the United States to end the war? We're not spending any money on it now, and if you count what we gave before we have clearly gotten a fantastic return on our money by a major enemy being severely weakened which frees us up to tackle other enemies elsewhere.

And if we work it right, we can clearly get our money back from frozen assets or even repatriations which is clearly warranted.

Ending the bloodshed of course, but I highly, highly doubt that reason motivates Trump at all.

EDIT NOTE: I'm a little confused. Even though I didn't quote the poster, I thought there was a post asking NYCFAN a just curious question. Which is what I thought I was dovetailing. Did he erase his post or did I dream it up somehow if anyone knows?
 
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BlueSmoke said:
Just curious. Why is it a priority for the United States to end the war? We're not spending any money on it now, and if you count what we gave before we have clearly gotten a fantastic return on our money by a major enemy being severely weakened which frees us up to tackle other enemies elsewhere.

And if we work it right, we can clearly get our money back from frozen assets or even repatriations which is clearly warranted.

Ending the bloodshed of course, but I highly, highly doubt that reason motivates Trump at all.

EDIT NOTE: I'm a little confused. Even though I didn't quote the poster, I thought there was a post asking NYCFAN a just curious question. Which is what I thought I was dovetailing. Did he erase his post or did I dream it up somehow if anyone knows?
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As to the EDIT NOTE, I’m 🤔 not sure I follow hat happened.

In any event, I think ending the war is a Trump priority as it makes it easier for him to proceed with his strange fixation on improving economic relations with Russia.
 
BlueSmoke said:
Just curious. Why is it a priority for the United States to end the war? We're not spending any money on it now, and if you count what we gave before we have clearly gotten a fantastic return on our money by a major enemy being severely weakened which frees us up to tackle other enemies elsewhere.

And if we work it right, we can clearly get our money back from frozen assets or even repatriations which is clearly warranted.

Ending the bloodshed of course, but I highly, highly doubt that reason motivates Trump at all.

EDIT NOTE: I'm a little confused. Even though I didn't quote the poster, I thought there was a post asking NYCFAN a just curious question. Which is what I thought I was dovetailing. Did he erase his post or did I dream it up somehow if anyone knows?
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The post was deleted.
 
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