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Russia - Ukraine “peace negotiations”

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
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Ukraine employs a layered defense. Sparse up front that can be quickly reinforced when needed. Preserves their own, while bleeding the Russians which is their strategy. Land, which Ukraine has an abundance of can be sacrificed. The interesting thing, is they don't even dig in sometimes on the front lines. They let the Russians come over that ground and they pick them off. Then Ukrainians move back in and thereby not have to fight the Russians inside their trenches Ukraine built. That's why often, the war map will show Russia making slight ground gains, only to be lost in a couple days when the Ukrainians move in and mop up.

About 12 to 25 miles from the front line, Ukraine concentrates on taking out Russian artillery. Then 5 to 12 miles from front line they take out moving vehicles. Up to 5 miles from front, they take out humans that move. It's an efficient system of defense.

Russia doesn't bother to train much. Its a meat wave. Open sources have accounted for known 6,000 in Russian officer losses. That's a huge brain and experience drain. So even if Russia captures a critical town or two, then so what? What are they going to do? Russia hasn't shown since 2022 that they can follow up any breakthrough. They don't have the logistics or leadership to do that. And on foot, it won't ever happen.

And it appears the air force advantage has shifted to Ukraine. Many more reports now of Ukraine using glide bombs at the front rather then Russia. Which is funny, because it was Russia that started that. Seem like I read Ukraine had even figured out how to jam the glide bomb mechanism Russia uses.

Yep, Russia is making advances in Drones. Will that really matter as the attacker? For terrorism, yes. For moving the front line? It takes serious coordination for it to matter as the attacker, so I have my doubts if Russia can take advantage.

If I were Putin, yes I'd make one more serious effort this year. If I were the Ukrainians, no way give up anything in a peace settlement.

The Ukrainians got this.
 
Ukraine is daily getting weaker while Russia is steadily getting stronger, and the Russian military has gotten a lot better at what they're doing after the disaster slaughter of the first 2 years. From a technology standpoint, Ukraine was the early innovator in UAVs, but is now firmly behind, and Russian loitering munitions are expanding quickly. Those who only follow MBT innovation miss this. While there's not a tactical collapse of Ukraine's front line yet, it's heading there, and at that point we may even see the number of attacks go down, but the attacks get larger and gain far more ground. Remember what happened after the fall of Ugledar? Russian forces rolled through large areas, whereas before that they spent ~6 months battering their way through Novomikhailovka.

I doubt Ukraine loses the war this year, but you never know with Trump scheming against them every day. They will lose ground, possibly everything south of Kramatorsk if Russia's current efforts pay off they way they seem to intend them to. But depending on just how depleted Ukraine's forces are, next year could be very very grim.
I don't understand the "Russia getting stronger" bit. Russia's military capabilities have been badly degraded, and that continues. So they're making more drones, so what? They're getting desperation hardware from N Korea and their industrial base is a shambles.
 
I don't understand the "Russia getting stronger" bit. Russia's military capabilities have been badly degraded, and that continues. So they're making more drones, so what? They're getting desperation hardware from N Korea and their industrial base is a shambles.

The Russian military is reconstituting and growing at a faster rate than most analysts had anticipated,” Gen. Christopher Cavoli
 

The Russian military is reconstituting and growing at a faster rate than most analysts had anticipated,” Gen. Christopher Cavoli
Thank you for the report. I will go thru it for sure. On the reconstituting manpower. It has been noted they were able to meet recruitment goals, as many joined over the last several months thinking the war would soon be over and they could pocket the bonus. Ouch, a little surprise.
 
The General says in his statement that Russia will "roll out" 1,500 tanks this year? Interesting choice of words. Pretty sure what he really means is that they will refurbish old tanks in storage and repair damaged tanks. Actual new, modern tanks manufactured will be a paltry number from other sources like the Institute for Study of War I think.

Anyway, for this war they haven't made an impact.
 


“… Ukraine’s capital came under a large-scale Russian drone and missile attack overnight and into early Saturday that left at least 15 people injured, according to Ukrainian officials. Explosions and machine gun fire were heard throughout Kyiv as many sought shelter in subway stations.


Russia attacked Ukraine with 14 ballistic missiles and 250 Shahed drones overnight, officials said, adding that Ukrainian forces shot down 6 missiles and neutralized 245 drones — 128 drones were shot down and 117 were thwarted using electronic warfare.

The Kyiv City Military Administration said it was one of the most massive combined missile and drone attacks on the capital.

“A difficult night for all of us,” the administration said in a statement. …”
 
I am a bit confused with 20th May RUSI report. Seems they are suggesting they can reach replacement levels with new MBTs? That, I highly doubt.
The guns alone, they lost the manufacturing talent for that level of production.
 


Russia massing troops near Kharkiv Oblast ahead of possible attack, military warns​



Ukraine Orders Evacuations Amid Russian Troops Build-Up Near Border​


 
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