Russia - Ukraine “peace negotiations”

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I don't know if you can change the dynamic with Russia as long as Putin is in charge. Remember Hillary's famous "re set" red button? I think you simply have to manage him and always convey strength. Putin saw his chance to pounce in Ukraine with Biden in charge and the Afghanistan withdrawal.

You're never going to convince Putin to give up on his goal for a Greater Russia with its recapturing all of the territories of the USSR. The "good" news is that Putin's Ukraine misadventure has likely set Russia back a decade with respect to lost manpower and equipment.
 
CRHeel94 said:
I'm of two minds about this topic.

1) I don't trust Putin at all. I think he is the person responsible for most of the chaos we have seen on the geopolitical stage for the last 15 years. He has no conscience whatsoever to do what he feels puts him in the best spot. Ruthless, putting himself ahead of all others. He has run circles around the US political establishment. He has the classic Russian mentality of only respecting strength.

2) at some point, the dynamic with Russia needs to change. The Ukraine war cannot go on in perpetuity. Eventually we need to change the dynamic with the Russians. Back in the early 00's it looked like we were on a good path...it was conceivable that Russia could even be an important ally. The problem is I have very little faith that the Trump regime can pull this off.
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It looked like we were on a good path in the early 2000s because Russia had fully submitted to the neoliberalization of their economy. Predictably, this hollowing out served the oligarch class over everyone else in the country and paved the way for the Russia we know today.
 
Ramrouser said:
I don't know if you can change the dynamic with Russia as long as Putin is in charge. Remember Hillary's famous "re set" red button? I think you simply have to manage him and always convey strength. Putin saw his chance to pounce in Ukraine with Biden in charge and the Afghanistan withdrawal.

You're never going to convince Putin to give up on his goal for a Greater Russia with its recapturing all of the territories of the USSR. The "good" news is that Putin's Ukraine misadventure has likely set Russia back a decade with respect to lost manpower and equipment.
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Hillary, Biden yadda yadda yadda. Your posts are repetitive. Whenever you can't defend what Trump is doing you reflexively resort to people no longer relevant. Of course Biden's actions are what put Putin into the setback situation and Trump is the one giving him an out. But you'll never see it from so far up Musk's asshole.
 
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theel4life said:
Trump is Putins bitch.
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So Putin gets to keep basically everything he took . Putin gets a promise of No Nato
Trump is excited for a deal because of the possibility we force an election ..........
if he was the Macho man he claims to be he would be not so secretly loading up Europe with missles and bombers
 
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Ramrouser said:
The "good" news is that Putin's Ukraine misadventure has likely set Russia back a decade with respect to lost manpower and equipment.
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Which is why this push for a premature “peace plan” is a bad idea. It’s costing Russia a great deal so why let up? They can end the conflict at any time by withdrawing. Why reward Putin for murdering hundreds of thousands of innocent people by giving him territory that the world recognizes as part of a sovereign Ukraine, unilaterally denying Ukraine the right to join NATO, forcing a change in Ukrainian leadership, and removing sanctions against Russia and Russian citizens known to be involved in subversive and criminal actions against the US and its allies? Why give them everything they want and allow them time to rebuild their apparatus of war so they can go after the next domino?
 
Ramrouser said:
I don't know if you can change the dynamic with Russia as long as Putin is in charge. Remember Hillary's famous "re set" red button? I think you simply have to manage him and always convey strength. Putin saw his chance to pounce in Ukraine with Biden in charge and the Afghanistan withdrawal.

You're never going to convince Putin to give up on his goal for a Greater Russia with its recapturing all of the territories of the USSR. The "good" news is that Putin's Ukraine misadventure has likely set Russia back a decade with respect to lost manpower and equipment.
Click to expand...
I really see it differently. While a terrible cost has been paid, it cost them a bunch of outdated equipment from the 70s and 80s that will be replaced with modern components. The conscripts will always be there. Their officer core has no doubt been bled, but they have adjusted and learnings are evident is both strategy and tactics. They greatly improved their ability to coordinate with drones. I think the biggest material setback is with their navy, where they can no longer project in the Black Sea.


This is an AF opinion, but it's shared by the Army as well. US Air Force general: Russia military larger, better than before Ukraine invasion
 
CRHeel94 said:
I'm of two minds about this topic.

1) I don't trust Putin at all. I think he is the person responsible for most of the chaos we have seen on the geopolitical stage for the last 15 years. He has no conscience whatsoever to do what he feels puts him in the best spot. Ruthless, putting himself ahead of all others. He has run circles around the US political establishment. He has the classic Russian mentality of only respecting strength.

2) at some point, the dynamic with Russia needs to change. The Ukraine war cannot go on in perpetuity. Eventually we need to change the dynamic with the Russians. Back in the early 00's it looked like we were on a good path...it was conceivable that Russia could even be an important ally. The problem is I have very little faith that the Trump regime can pull this off.
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Change very little faith to no faith and I agree with you 100%.
 
Batt Boy said:
I really see it differently. While a terrible cost has been paid, it cost them a bunch of outdated equipment from the 70s and 80s that will be replaced with modern components. The conscripts will always be there. Their officer core has no doubt been bled, but they have adjusted and learnings are evident is both strategy and tactics. They greatly improved their ability to coordinate with drones. I think the biggest material setback is with their navy, where they can no longer project in the Black Sea.


This is an AF opinion, but it's shared by the Army as well. US Air Force general: Russia military larger, better than before Ukraine invasion
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Unfortunately pretty accurate, imo.

Russia's biggest problem of the war to date is how to come back down from their frothy sugar-high war economy. Imagine the unemployment and blow to GDP when they stop spending 9% of their economy on their defense budget and all those conscripts return to civilian life just as all the factory jobs dry up.

At the end of the day, from the Russian perspective, that is pretty much all these Saudi Arabia negotiations are about. how to flatter Trump enough so that he'll lift sanctions and enter trade agreements and get Russia into the G8 to better be able to provide Russian with a soft landing.

In some respects we have Russia over a barrel at the moment, of course we'll squander that and serve them up everything they want on a platter. Trump gonna Trump.
 
Ramrouser said:
I don't know if you can change the dynamic with Russia as long as Putin is in charge. Remember Hillary's famous "re set" red button? I think you simply have to manage him and always convey strength. Putin saw his chance to pounce in Ukraine with Biden in charge and the Afghanistan withdrawal.

You're never going to convince Putin to give up on his goal for a Greater Russia with its recapturing all of the territories of the USSR. The "good" news is that Putin's Ukraine misadventure has likely set Russia back a decade with respect to lost manpower and equipment.
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Hilarious.

“Conveying Strength” = Give him everything he wants.

Trump isn’t managing Putin. He’s getting managed by Putin.

Putin has his fist up Trump’s ass and is working him like a puppet.
 
Ddseddse said:
Unfortunately pretty accurate, imo.

Russia's biggest problem of the war to date is how to come back down from their frothy sugar-high war economy. Imagine the unemployment and blow to GDP when they stop spending 9% of their economy on their defense budget and all those conscripts return to civilian life just as all the factory jobs dry up.

At the end of the day, from the Russian perspective, that is pretty much all these Saudi Arabia negotiations are about. how to flatter Trump enough so that he'll lift sanctions and enter trade agreements and get Russia into the G8 to better be able to provide Russian with a soft landing.

In some respects we have Russia over a barrel at the moment, of course we'll squander that and serve them up everything they want on a platter. Trump gonna Trump.
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Agreed, but I have little faith the great businessman will cut a good deal. Russia wants the rest of Zaporozhye, Kherson, and Donetsk region. Trump wants a deal on rare earth metals. What could go wrong for Ukraine and European security?
 
Ramrouser said:
Putin saw his chance to pounce in Ukraine with Biden in charge and the Afghanistan withdrawal.
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Trump is so deep in your ass it's pathetic. The withdraw from Afghanistan was negotiated for the US by Zalmay Khalilzad for the First Trump administration, the agreement circumvented the then Afghan government and directly led to the events that followed.

The ONLY thing that has emboldened Vladimir Putin is Donald J Trump. He did it then, he's doing it now.
 
If Democrats end up cutting a budget deal with Republicans, is it possible that some aid money could be provided to Ukraine? Mitch McConnel should be enlisted to get such a deal.

Of course, there would have to be strings attached so Trump couldn't touch it.
 
Batt Boy said:
I really see it differently. While a terrible cost has been paid, it cost them a bunch of outdated equipment from the 70s and 80s that will be replaced with modern components. The conscripts will always be there. Their officer core has no doubt been bled, but they have adjusted and learnings are evident is both strategy and tactics. They greatly improved their ability to coordinate with drones. I think the biggest material setback is with their navy, where they can no longer project in the Black Sea.


This is an AF opinion, but it's shared by the Army as well. US Air Force general: Russia military larger, better than before Ukraine invasion
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But conscript armies are shit, aren't they? Like, Russia had a professional military (and Wagner paramilitaries) that have now been decimated. Filling the ranks with conscripts does not seem like a path to success.
 
A spilt seems to have emerged among the Euros over whether to match Starmer's pledge to send troops. Europe split over Starmer pledge to send troops to Ukraine

Poland will not send troops. Poland won't send troops to Ukraine, Tusk announces - Euractiv

someone with better language skills can provide more accurate translation, but the gist is, "The war is over, Ukraine has been defeated, let's see what Ukraine can "salvage"; and we want a seat at the table?"
 
BlueSmoke said:
If Democrats end up cutting a budget deal with Republicans, is it possible that some aid money could be provided to Ukraine? Mitch McConnel should be enlisted to get such a deal.

Of course, there would have to be strings attached so Trump couldn't touch it.
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Outspoken Democrats have been pretty boisterous about NOT working with Pubs. They control all three branches of government. Let them find their own votes.
 
Trump's greatest accomplishments are always the things MAGA imagine he "would have" done in some hypothetical past that never happened where anything they can dream up must be true. He "would have" prevented Russia's invasion. Yeah right.

I thought Trump's big plan is to become more isolationist and stop being the world's police? He's talked about leaving NATO. You can't square that foreign policy approach with ALSO being so scary to foreign adversaries that you prevent foreign atrocities. You have to pick a lane. Well, you have to if you want to be logically consistent.

The fact is Biden's handling of this Russian invasion has been a masterclass at crippling another superpower without risking American lives and paying pennies on the dollar to do it.
 
superrific said:
But conscript armies are shit, aren't they? Like, Russia had a professional military (and Wagner paramilitaries) that have now been decimated. Filling the ranks with conscripts does not seem like a path to success.
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I know you're a reader, not a media guy, but Perun's YouTube videos are densely packed firehose of information. If you're truly interested on the topic I would suggest watching his latest "Russian Casualties & Force Generation - Losses, Recruitment & Sustaining the War in Ukraine".

Normally I'd link, but can't right now, but will pop up on any search engine.
 
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