Russia - Ukraine “peace negotiations”

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Ddseddse said:
I know you're a reader, not a media guy, but Perun's YouTube videos are densely packed firehose of information. If you're truly interested on the topic I would suggest watching his latest "Russian Casualties & Force Generation - Losses, Recruitment & Sustaining the War in Ukraine".

Normally I'd link, but can't right now, but will pop up on any search engine.
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I looked it up. It's an hour long. Ugh. Part of the reason I don't like to watch or listen is that it's time inefficient. Another reason is that I have a strong attention span for reading, and a weak attention span for videos. At least the guy speaks at normal speed. The slow-talking that has become de rigeur as more people rely on closed captioning irritates me to no end. I'm giving it a bit of a listen but I don't know how far I will make it.
 
superrific said:
I looked it up. It's an hour long. Ugh. Part of the reason I don't like to watch or listen is that it's time inefficient. Another reason is that I have a strong attention span for reading, and a weak attention span for videos. At least the guy speaks at normal speed. The slow-talking that has become de rigeur as more people rely on closed captioning irritates me to no end. I'm giving it a bit of a listen but I don't know how far I will make it.
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After an hour of Perun's stuff, I feel like I've read an entire book! :)

The guy knows his shit and has the gift of communicating dense material succinctly. I think you'll also appreciate how he extensively caveats things he does not know, and is very clear about sources and methods.
 
superrific said:
I looked it up. It's an hour long. Ugh. Part of the reason I don't like to watch or listen is that it's time inefficient. Another reason is that I have a strong attention span for reading, and a weak attention span for videos. At least the guy speaks at normal speed. The slow-talking that has become de rigeur as more people rely on closed captioning irritates me to no end. I'm giving it a bit of a listen but I don't know how far I will make it.
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Could always turn playback speed to 1.75. That’s how I listen to the occasional Cody Johnston episode and these explainer YouTube videos.
 
Ddseddse said:
After an hour of Perun's stuff, I feel like I've read an entire book! :)

The guy knows his shit and has the gift of communicating dense material succinctly. I think you'll also appreciate how he extensively caveats things he does not know, and is very clear about sources and methods.
Click to expand...
I listened to about 10 minutes, then I skipped ahead to listen to a couple of five minute segments. It's just not going to work for me. I don't know what books you're reading. He might know his shit inside and out, but the entire episode is probably not more than a few pages of text.
 
Ramrouser said:
I don't know if you can change the dynamic with Russia as long as Putin is in charge. Remember Hillary's famous "re set" red button? I think you simply have to manage him and always convey strength. Putin saw his chance to pounce in Ukraine with Biden in charge and the Afghanistan withdrawal.

You're never going to convince Putin to give up on his goal for a Greater Russia with its recapturing all of the territories of the USSR. The "good" news is that Putin's Ukraine misadventure has likely set Russia back a decade with respect to lost manpower and equipment.
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What do you think Biden should have done?
 
Ramrouser said:
You're never going to convince Putin to give up on his goal for a Greater Russia with its recapturing all of the territories of the USSR. The "good" news is that Putin's Ukraine misadventure has likely set Russia back a decade with respect to lost manpower and equipment.
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And who was responsible for turning that misadventure into a catastrophe? Oh yeah, Biden. The way he handled that situation was masterful. The world started supporting Ukraine -- making it easier for governments to contribute to the effort -- precisely because Biden's team started warning about Putin's intentions before the way happened, AND pre-butted Putin's bullshit justifications. That's a lesson Biden learned from Obama, who didn't counter Putin's Ukraine narrative early enough and allowed it to gain currency.

I mean, look at what you're doing here. You're crediting this thing Biden did as an accomplishment, while saying he's responsible for everything bad that happened. It makes no sense.

I love Barack Obama. I think he was, on the whole, a better president than Joe Biden. But Biden's handling of the Ukraine invasion was brilliantly and incredibly successful, and I don't think Barack would have done as well. Trump certainly would not have. The only other major candidate, I think, who would have performed as well under those circumstances was HRC. I know, you're going to fulminate now, because you're an old white dude, but it's true. She believed in diplomacy, but would not have been reluctant at all to pull the trigger when necessary. If she had been president when the US forces surrounded bin Laden, he would have been dead. She wouldn't have let him go like Bush did.

That's a lesson she learned from Clinton's presidency [if you're seeing a pattern here, it's that learning is good. When presidents jettison everything that came before them, they lose knowledge and are prone to repeating mistakes or making bigger ones]. He has often said that he considered Rwanda to be his biggest failure. He was reluctant and hesitant and it quickly became too late. That's why he did much better in Serbia/Kosovo in his second term. He learned.
 
superrific said:
I listened to about 10 minutes, then I skipped ahead to listen to a couple of five minute segments. It's just not going to work for me. I don't know what books you're reading. He might know his shit inside and out, but the entire episode is probably not more than a few pages of text.
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superrific said:
And who was responsible for turning that misadventure into a catastrophe? Oh yeah, Biden. The way he handled that situation was masterful. The world started supporting Ukraine -- making it easier for governments to contribute to the effort -- precisely because Biden's team started warning about Putin's intentions before the way happened, AND pre-butted Putin's bullshit justifications. That's a lesson Biden learned from Obama, who didn't counter Putin's Ukraine narrative early enough and allowed it to gain currency.

I mean, look at what you're doing here. You're crediting this thing Biden did as an accomplishment, while saying he's responsible for everything bad that happened. It makes no sense.

I love Barack Obama. I think he was, on the whole, a better president than Joe Biden. But Biden's handling of the Ukraine invasion was brilliantly and incredibly successful, and I don't think Barack would have done as well. Trump certainly would not have. The only other major candidate, I think, who would have performed as well under those circumstances was HRC. I know, you're going to fulminate now, because you're an old white dude, but it's true. She believed in diplomacy, but would not have been reluctant at all to pull the trigger when necessary. If she had been president when the US forces surrounded bin Laden, he would have been dead. She wouldn't have let him go like Bush did.

That's a lesson she learned from Clinton's presidency [if you're seeing a pattern here, it's that learning is good. When presidents jettison everything that came before them, they lose knowledge and are prone to repeating mistakes or making bigger ones]. He has often said that he considered Rwanda to be his biggest failure. He was reluctant and hesitant and it quickly became too late. That's why he did much better in Serbia/Kosovo in his second term. He learned.
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Yup, and you (meaning Ramrouser) are ignorant if you think the rest button was on HRC, she may have been in the photo, that was a president Obama who gave his secretary of state her marching orders. Hillary is, was and has always been a real Russia hawk.

I love Barack Obama, but I can assign fault where fault is due, he was disastrously shortsighted when it came to Russia and his Russia policy was a mess. But none of that was on HRC.

Why do you think Russian Troll farms were pumping out anti-Hillary messaging in 2016? Because she would have been so soft on Russia? It was the exact opposite.

And I agree with Super's assessment of Joe Biden's handling of the beginning of the Ukraine war. Building the alliance to oppose Russia was Biden's crowning achievement, and really the only singular reason that today we are even talking about Ukraine as an independent country and not already a defacto part of Russia.
 
superrific said:
I listened to about 10 minutes, then I skipped ahead to listen to a couple of five minute segments. It's just not going to work for me. I don't know what books you're reading. He might know his shit inside and out, but the entire episode is probably not more than a few pages of text.
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It's like a public good. The choice is not between efficient or inefficient, it's between getting the information or not getting the information. 😝

But seriously, I don't know of an alternative written source for the information that Perun produces. I may well exist, but I don't know about it.
 
Ddseddse said:
I love Barack Obama, but I can assign fault where fault is due, he was disastrously shortsighted when it came to Russia and his Russia policy was a mess. But none of that was on HRC.
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To be fair, Russia did not look like a worthy foe back then. I mean, it still doesn't. There are only so many wars you can fight with dispensable troops (was that the term from your video or was it expendable? Either way . . . ). What has elevated Russia in stature was its disinformation operations, and nobody anticipated their power at the time (including, I'd imagine, Putin).

The reset button was a good initiative. It was worth a try. That it didn't work doesn't mean it was a bad idea. Remember: Russia went after Georgia during Bush's tenure. Bush didn't know how to deal with it either. It's hard to formulate containment policy when the enemy has nukes. The idea of befriending Russia and giving it an incentive to behave rather than try to counter it with arms was a sound one.

Obama also had his hands full with other matters. You know, withdrawing from Iraq. Afghanistan. Arab Spring. Iran. North Korea. India/Pakistan. Isis. There's a reason Romney got mocked in 2012 for calling Russia our greatest foe (he wasn't correct, but more correct than perhaps he was given credit for). We were focused on the Middle East writ large (by which I mean the corridor from Algeria to India) and China.
 
Geisterfahrer said:
What do you think Biden should have done?
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Where do I start.

1. Not vacate in fighting season for the Taliban. He should have waited a few more months but he wanted the withdrawal to coincide with the 9/11 ceremonies.
2. Not abandon Bagram air force base. We had one of the largest, most strategic bases in the world (near Pakistan/Iran and China. Forced US to abandon billions of dollars in equipment - which fell into the hands of the Taliban
3. Not withdraw the military too fast and not allow the Taliban to act as security for the final evacuation from Karzai Airport

There's three things.
 
Ramrouser said:
Where do I start.

1. Not vacate in fighting season for the Taliban. He should have waited a few more months but he wanted the withdrawal to coincide with the 9/11 ceremonies.
2. Not abandon Bagram air force base. We had one of the largest, most strategic bases in the world (near Pakistan/Iran and China. Forced US to abandon billions of dollars in equipment - which fell into the hands of the Taliban
3. Not withdraw the military too fast and not allow the Taliban to act as security for the final evacuation from Karzai Airport

There's three things.
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Ukraine. What should Biden have done on Ukraine. I do not GAF about Afghanistan.
 
superrific said:
And who was responsible for turning that misadventure into a catastrophe? Oh yeah, Biden. The way he handled that situation was masterful. The world started supporting Ukraine -- making it easier for governments to contribute to the effort -- precisely because Biden's team started warning about Putin's intentions before the way happened, AND pre-butted Putin's bullshit justifications. That's a lesson Biden learned from Obama, who didn't counter Putin's Ukraine narrative early enough and allowed it to gain currency.

I mean, look at what you're doing here. You're crediting this thing Biden did as an accomplishment, while saying he's responsible for everything bad that happened. It makes no sense.

I love Barack Obama. I think he was, on the whole, a better president than Joe Biden. But Biden's handling of the Ukraine invasion was brilliantly and incredibly successful, and I don't think Barack would have done as well. Trump certainly would not have. The only other major candidate, I think, who would have performed as well under those circumstances was HRC. I know, you're going to fulminate now, because you're an old white dude, but it's true. She believed in diplomacy, but would not have been reluctant at all to pull the trigger when necessary. If she had been president when the US forces surrounded bin Laden, he would have been dead. She wouldn't have let him go like Bush did.

That's a lesson she learned from Clinton's presidency [if you're seeing a pattern here, it's that learning is good. When presidents jettison everything that came before them, they lose knowledge and are prone to repeating mistakes or making bigger ones]. He has often said that he considered Rwanda to be his biggest failure. He was reluctant and hesitant and it quickly became too late. That's why he did much better in Serbia/Kosovo in his second term. He learned.
Click to expand...
I never said Biden didn't deserve credit for the the initial response to Putin's invasion of Ukraine. It was the high point of his Presidency. Of course, it was pretty easy to rally Western Europe since they didn't want Russia to have a swift invasion of Ukraine and then head into Poland and the Baltics. Self preservation. I also agree HRC would have performed well since that's her wheelhouse.
 
Ramrouser said:
Where do I start.

1. Not vacate in fighting season for the Taliban. He should have waited a few more months but he wanted the withdrawal to coincide with the 9/11 ceremonies.
2. Not abandon Bagram air force base. We had one of the largest, most strategic bases in the world (near Pakistan/Iran and China. Forced US to abandon billions of dollars in equipment - which fell into the hands of the Taliban
3. Not withdraw the military too fast and not allow the Taliban to act as security for the final evacuation from Karzai Airport

There's three things.
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The timeline was set by Trump. If Biden had "waited a few more months" he would have grossly violated the terms Trump established. You and Trump might not care much about honoring American treaty obligations, especially if they were undertaken by a previous administration, but those of us living in reality understand that a country's power comes from honoring its obligations. If we welch on every deal, nobody will make deals with us. And that would be very, very bad.

As for Bagram, what part of "withdraw completely from Afghanistan" do you not understand? How would we defend the base without a substantial troop presence? Do you think about what you write?
 
Ramrouser said:
Where do I start.

1. Not vacate in fighting season for the Taliban. He should have waited a few more months but he wanted the withdrawal to coincide with the 9/11 ceremonies.
2. Not abandon Bagram air force base. We had one of the largest, most strategic bases in the world (near Pakistan/Iran and China. Forced US to abandon billions of dollars in equipment - which fell into the hands of the Taliban
3. Not withdraw the military too fast and not allow the Taliban to act as security for the final evacuation from Karzai Airport

There's three things.
Click to expand...
orangeturd negotiated that treaty w/t involving the existing government
His treaty
 
Ramrouser said:
I never said Biden didn't deserve credit for the the initial response to Putin's invasion of Ukraine. It was the high point of his Presidency. Of course, it was pretty easy to rally Western Europe since they didn't want Russia to have a swift invasion of Ukraine and then head into Poland and the Baltics. Self preservation. I also agree HRC would have performed well since that's her wheelhouse.
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Be honest: what do you think Trump would have done?

I think he would have done the same thing as he did for Covid. Sit on the information and the intelligence until it became impossible to ignore, at which point it would be too late -- because ultimately he doesn't give a fuck. So you can say that it was easy to rally Western Europe but Trump absolutely 100% would not have done so. It's not even just because he has a hardon for Putin. It's because Trump doesn't know how to be proactive about anything, because being proactive requires having knowledge and Trump doesn't because he doesn't care.

On what issue has Trump EVER been proactive? The only one I can think of was the Covid vaccine, and that comes with an asterisk because it was less about proactivity and more about searching for a magic solution that didn't require hard work and sacrifice.
 
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