Russia - Ukraine “peace negotiations”

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Callatoroy said:
Well what are the details of that? I know you want to, and have to believe its capitulation. But since no details are out there for scrutiny kind of hard to say that isn't it?

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With all due respect your post suggests that you have a limited capacity for reasonable inference...or maybe you are being disingenuous ?
 
BlooVooDoo said:
This is ridiculous. Russia has a massive nuclear arsenal. Germany isn’t marching through the Red Square. Western European countries haven’t invaded a damn thing in 80 years.
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Yeah, I have a feeling the things Russia fears, in order, are —

1. The US Air Force
2. The US Navy
3. The US Army
4. The US Marines





5. China




6. Any European country
 
lawtig02 said:
Yeah, I have a feeling the things Russia fears, in order, are —

1. The US Air Force
2. The US Navy
3. The US Army
4. The US Marines





5. China




6. Any European country
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Saudi Arabia dramatically increasing oil production and causing crude oil prices to plummet is likely a Russian fear. It’s doubtful the Saudis will do so; but, they could eff with Russia if they chose to do so.
 
From today’s Axios newsletter, a fairly concise overview.


Yesterday's Oval Office shouting match was shocking. But it wasn't too surprising to anyone close to President Trump or Vice President Vance.
  • Why it matters: Privately, Trump sees Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as a pro-Biden, ungrateful lightweight destined to lose to Russia. And Trump advisers believe Zelensky sees Trump as a pro-Putin, delusional fool destined to make him lose to Russia, Axios' Alex Isenstadt and Marc Caputo report.
To Trump's team, it was three strikes — and now officially out of favor — for Zelensky. In their eyes, Zelensky already had two strikes against him when he sat down with Trump and Vance.
  • That was the backdrop for a conversation that would become perhaps the most epic televised foreign policy row in history — an argument that rattled Europe and vividly illustrated a sharp turn in U.S. foreign policy toward Russia.
👉 It began with what Trump's team saw as Strike 3 against Zelensky: He disagreed publicly with Vance, who accused Zelensky of trying to "litigate" his case before the media.
  • Vance said Zelensky didn't show enough thanks to the U.S. for funding Ukraine's defense — or to Trump for trying to bring peace.
  • After a tense nine-minute exchange, it ended with Trump stopping the 50-minute meeting and essentially showing Zelensky the door.
👉 Strike 2 came just before Friday's meeting, when Zelensky arrived at the White House without a suit or jacket, as requested. It was perceived by White House staffers as disrespectful.
  • Zelensky was dressed instead in a three-button, skintight, long-sleeved black athletic shirt. "Wow look, you're all dressed up today," Trump said in a seemingly friendly way that advisers say masked annoyance.
Brian Glenn, a conservative reporter and boyfriend of Trump ally Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), voiced the attitude of Trump's team when he asked Zelensky, "Why don't you wear a suit? … Do you own a suit?" Vance laughed out loud.
  • "I will wear a [suit] after this war will finish," Zelensky said. "Maybe something like yours. Maybe something better ... maybe something cheaper."
👉 Strike 1, as first reported by Axios, came Feb. 15, when Zelensky trashed a proposed mineral rights deal with Ukraine that he privately had discussed the day before in Munich with Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.


The big picture: At the heart of the discord is Trump's view of the conflict, which continues to challenge the United States' long-held alliances in Europe.
  • Trump sees geopolitics in terms of negotiations between powerful countries and big personalities. Russian President Vladimir Putin is a coequal in this paradigm. Zelensky — the leader of a smaller country surviving thanks to American largesse — isn't.
Trump also approaches politics like a business deal or, as a former casino owner, as a type of poker. In one telling moment, he told Zelensky he had a bad hand without the U.S.
  • "I'm not playing cards. I'm very serious," Zelensky said. Trump shot back: "You're playing cards. You're gambling with the lives of millions of people."
  • Quick to temper and desiring of flattery, Trump demands a high degree of obeisance from supplicants. Zelensky didn't show that — and Vance was quick to try to put him in his place.
Trump's expectation of deference from Zelensky is particularly high because of the massive aid the U.S. has sent to Ukraine (an amount Trump inflates). The two have had a fraught relationship since 2019, when Trump was impeached for trying to leverage Zelensky for political gain against Joe Biden.
  • Vance has long had antipathy for Zelensky and funding Ukraine's fight against Russia's invasion. In his 2022 Senate race in Ohio, Vance ran on a platform of ending Ukraine aid.
 
CFordUNC said:
www.thebulwark.com

America Joins the Jackals

Ukraine is only the first victim.
www.thebulwark.com www.thebulwark.com
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I lie like a whisper​
I lie with the lights out​
And it won′t take me long just to find you​
And it won't take me long just to find you​
​
I′m allied to the winter​
Don't you get clever​
Don't you get clever​
I′m allied to the landslide​
Gonna leave you all severed​
Gonna leave you all severed​
​
I alone am the answer​
I alone will make wrongs right​
But in order to root out the cancer​
It′s got to be kept from the sunlight​
​
I'm allied to the winter​
Don′t you get clever​
Don't you get clever​
I′m allied to the landslide​
Gonna leave you all severed​
Gonna leave you all severed​
​
I was born to a jackal​
I was born in a white house​
Gonna smother you all 'til I choke you​
Gonna smother you all ′til you kick out​
​
I'm allied to the winter​
Don't you get clever​
Don′t you get clever​
I′m allied to the landslide​
Gonna leave you all severed​
Gonna leave you all severed​
 
BlooVooDoo said:
This is ridiculous. Russia has a massive nuclear arsenal. Germany isn’t marching through the Red Square. Western European countries haven’t invaded a damn thing in 80 years.
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So what is everybody spending all that money on? I agree they aren't marching through Red square but if you're Russia, and lost millions of people in world war I and millions in WW2, you might not make the same risk calculation.
 
And let's not lose sight of the fact that a vast majority of the munitions the US is sending Ukraine are munitions whose expiration dates are coming up and if the US wasn't sending them to Ukraine we would be spending money to dispose of them. So, 1) the US saves money on disposal costs by sending these munitions to Ukraine and 2) the US pays domestic producers to replace these munitions. THE MONEY NEVER LEAVES THE US.

The key cost for the US is the transporation cost to get these munitions to Ukraine. And if these munitions are already in Europe, then these transportation costs are probably less than transporting them back to the US for disposal. Ukraine could probably make the argument that the US should be paying for Ukraine's disposal of our munitions into Russian tanks and drones.

And lets not underestimate the value of the knowledge the US has acquired from Ukraine about the use of and defense against drones. The value of lessons learned about drone warfare probably exceeds the costs of what the US has "given" Ukraine.

ETA: Link for example of the costs of weapons disposal -
en.m.wikipedia.org

Rocky Mountain Arsenal - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org
 
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Zoo_View said:
Saudi Arabia dramatically increasing oil production and causing crude oil prices to plummet is likely a Russian fear. It’s doubtful the Saudis will do so; but, they could eff with Russia if they chose to do so.
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Good point. I was focusing on militaries, but Russia is highly dependent on Saudi Arabia, India, Brazil, etc. for economic reasons.
 


“… The problem is not just that economic normalization and sanctions relief are some of the most coveted items on the Kremlin’s wishlist, behind only the annihilation of Ukrainian nationhood. Nor is it that sanctions relief and a return to business as usual would only give Moscow the breathing space to rearm and try for Ukraine again, thus intensifying the security burden on a NATO and a Europe that has, in the space of less than two weeks, had to learn to live without a U.S. security umbrella that had been happily unfurled for 75 years.

One big issue is that a U.S. pledge to restore economic relations means a relief in sanctions, just when the United States and the West had finally managed to get Russia to a place where the curbs on energy exports, tech imports, and other money movements were finally paying dividends. Leverage, as Euclid elucidated centuries ago, means not losing sight of the sharp end of the stick.

That aside, the notion of Russia’s economy as an “investment prospect” is itself dubious. This is a place with 21 percent interest rates, inflation that is higher than what hurt former President Joe Biden, and labor and supply chain problems that would vex nimble economies, let alone sclerotic ones.

Couple that with the absolute lack of rule of law—Russia is a place where investments are placeholders, not assets; those who find themselves in favor with the Kremlin end up in resorts such as Sochi, while those who don’t end up in Siberia—and you can see why U.S. businesses have cold feet. That did not dissuade Rubio or Witkoff from dangling economic concessions, but then, this is a new, and seemingly naive, administration.

“Russia is a great first date. They show up looking like a million bucks, and then, of course, they lure you in, hand you to the tough guys and bureaucrats, and then work you over,” said Craig Kennedy, a former investment banker in Russia who is now at Harvard University’s Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies.

Western companies—from automakers, to IT firms, to fast-food restaurants—have fled Russia for the most part since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, though some, such as Air Serbia, have stayed.

The costs for Russia are huge, while the costs for Western firms of either leaving or staying are even higher: Western firms had to either pay extortionate “exit fees” in the form of taxes on their way out or face the threat of reprisals if they come back.

This is not the commodity-fueled, early 2000s Russian economy with a laptop and lap dance for everyone. …”
 
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