Russia - US “Ukraine peace negotiations”

Callatoroy said:
Do you think its in trump's nature to make a deal without getting something in return?
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Without a doubt. In fact, he regularly makes deals without getting anything in return. He *thinks* he is getting something, but he's very easily duped. Remember: the reason he became a reality TV star was that he was a complete failure as a real estate developer.

Last month, he made "a great deal" that actually reduced the Mexican troop presence at the border. He thought their troop presence was zero, not 15K. He made a great deal with Canada consisting of Canada doing the same thing Canada had already been doing. In his first term, he negotiated a "great deal" with Europe for the EU to buy American LNG, when the EU has no involvement in any purchase of natural gas.

Oh, and there was that deal he was trying to make, in which Ukraine would get weapons only if they gave him dirt on Hunter Biden. John Bolton of all people blew it up because it was a gross abuse of power unlike anything previously seen in American history (and hoo boy he was only getting started).

Here's a different question: when has Trump ever made a good deal? When has he gotten remotely close to equal value in any negotiation? I'm having trouble remembering one.

Oh, let's not forget when he agreed with Kim Jong Un to cease joint military operations with South Korea in exchange for KJU pausing the nuclear program. And what happened? Oh, yeah -- Trump ceased the operations, KJU accelerated his nuclear program, and then wrote a love letter to Trump to smooth things over. What a brilliant negotiator!
 
Geisterfahrer said:
Depends. In whose interest is Trump operating? Doesn’t appear to be for USA.
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Why is that your
BlooVooDoo said:
Which is why this push for a premature “peace plan” is a bad idea. It’s costing Russia a great deal so why let up? They can end the conflict at any time by withdrawing. Why reward Putin for murdering hundreds of thousands of innocent people by giving him territory that the world recognizes as part of a sovereign Ukraine, unilaterally denying Ukraine the right to join NATO, forcing a change in Ukrainian leadership, and removing sanctions against Russia and Russian citizens known to be involved in subversive and criminal actions against the US and its allies? Why give them everything they want and allow them time to rebuild their apparatus of war so they can go after the next domino?
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Under no circumstance was russia going to withdraw back to its original borders. That isn't my opinion, that's a very common and accepted opinion. The same applies to nato membership for ukraine. Just not going to happen if russia is going to negotiate a peace. The US has no leverage other than continuing to throw money at ukraine to extend until ukraine loses the war of attrition. russia has all the leverage because they can continue to ship oil to fund the war. So, you can keep sending ukraine 150 billion a year for the next 5 years until ukraine runs out of dudes to fight, or try to negotiate a peace deal that secures long-term security for ukraine and creates far less instability in the world.
 
Callatoroy said:
Why is that your

Under no circumstance was russia going to withdraw back to its original borders. That isn't my opinion, that's a very common and accepted opinion. The same applies to nato membership for ukraine. Just not going to happen if russia is going to negotiate a peace. The US has no leverage other than continuing to throw money at ukraine to extend until ukraine loses the war of attrition. russia has all the leverage because they can continue to ship oil to fund the war. So, you can keep sending ukraine 150 billion a year for the next 5 years until ukraine runs out of dudes to fight, or try to negotiate a peace deal that secures long-term security for ukraine and creates far less instability in the world.
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$150 billion a year? Where do you get your information from? You are a gullible person.
 
Callatoroy said:
Why is that your

Under no circumstance was russia going to withdraw back to its original borders. That isn't my opinion, that's a very common and accepted opinion. The same applies to nato membership for ukraine. Just not going to happen if russia is going to negotiate a peace. The US has no leverage other than continuing to throw money at ukraine to extend until ukraine loses the war of attrition. russia has all the leverage because they can continue to ship oil to fund the war. So, you can keep sending ukraine 150 billion a year for the next 5 years until ukraine runs out of dudes to fight, or try to negotiate a peace deal that secures long-term security for ukraine and creates far less instability in the world.
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Look, Neville, we saw this spiel before and remember the unhappy ending.
 
Callatoroy said:
Why is that your

Under no circumstance was russia going to withdraw back to its original borders. That isn't my opinion, that's a very common and accepted opinion. The same applies to nato membership for ukraine. Just not going to happen if russia is going to negotiate a peace. The US has no leverage other than continuing to throw money at ukraine to extend until ukraine loses the war of attrition. russia has all the leverage because they can continue to ship oil to fund the war. So, you can keep sending ukraine 150 billion a year for the next 5 years until ukraine runs out of dudes to fight, or try to negotiate a peace deal that secures long-term security for ukraine and creates far less instability in the world.
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Nothing says leverage like giving Russia literally everything it asked for, repeating Kremlin talking points and making up lies about our ally in the region who is fighting for its life. The United States no longer has a shred of credibility in the international community. Took three weeks to destroy what we had built over the last 80 years. Hope it was worth it.
 
farce© said:
Bessent's plan included Ukraine signing 50% of its mineral rights over to the US, after which the US might put soldiers on the ground in Ukraine to protect our rare earth minerals. Zelensky politely declined to sign the draft. Since Zelinsky didn't go for Trump's extortion, Trump is now shitting on him.

Why is the Treasury Secretary involved in direct foreign policy negotiations? Why is the Sec of Defense taking Ukraine bargaining chips off the table before negotiations even begin? Why is the Vice President publicly scolding our NATO allies over Ukraine? Now Rubio is in Saudi Arabia negotiating with the Russians while other members of the Administration undercut him.

I think the truth is no one speaks for Trump. Trump outlined his plan yesterday when he said Ukraine started the war. Bessent, Hegseth, Rubio, Vance, et al are insignificant players. The only thing that matters is Trump.

It's nice to have a king, isn't it?
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From the article you linked:

Ukrainian officials have said Zelenskyy has long backed the idea of exchanging “critical resources” for continued U.S. support, calling the idea part of the “Victory Plan” that he presented to Trump during a meeting last fall

Once again, why would Putin’s puppet strike a deal that links American interest with Ukraine? Looks like Trump is trying to stake claim to Ukraine’s resources. Surely Russia wouldn’t view any of that favorably.
 
Purple Nurple said:
From the article you linked:

Ukrainian officials have said Zelenskyy has long backed the idea of exchanging “critical resources” for continued U.S. support, calling the idea part of the “Victory Plan” that he presented to Trump during a meeting last fall

Once again, why would Putin’s puppet strike a deal that links American interest with Ukraine? Looks like Trump is trying to stake claim to Ukraine’s resources. Surely Russia wouldn’t view any of that favorably.
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When someone surprises you with an agreement that you must sign on the spot, they’re trying to fuck you. Either the terms are bad or it will be used as leverage for a better deal elsewhere. I suspect it was the latter.
 
Purple Nurple said:
From the article you linked:

Ukrainian officials have said Zelenskyy has long backed the idea of exchanging “critical resources” for continued U.S. support, calling the idea part of the “Victory Plan” that he presented to Trump during a meeting last fall

Once again, why would Putin’s puppet strike a deal that links American interest with Ukraine? Looks like Trump is trying to stake claim to Ukraine’s resources. Surely Russia wouldn’t view any of that favorably.
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Because Zelenskyy is proposing a deal that involves minerals for continued support. Trump is proposing minerals as repayment for past support. Um, yeah, not the same thing.

Putin would be absolutely thrilled for the US to have an economic stake in Ukraine.

1. First, if that's all it takes for the US to lift sanctions and allow them free reign, it's an incredible bargain.
2. Second, it gives Putin leverage over the US, not unlike the leverage North Korea has over South Korea (though not to the same extent, of course). Why do you think the West has prevented Iran from getting a nuke when North Korea was able to do so? Because North Korea can obliterate Seoul if we try to bomb them. If the US has $500B worth of assets within shelling distance of Russia, it gives Russia a hell of a lot of leverage over us -- especially if the US withdraws its troops from Europe.
3. Third, Putin loves the idea of bargaining with Trump as an equal. Leaving Europe and Ukraine out of it suggests a "great power" negotiation which elevates Russia's status on the world stage.

There has been talk that Trump's foreign policy seems to be dividing the world into spheres of influence. Russia and China will let the US control the Western Hemisphere (including Greenland and the Panama Canal); China will have dominion over Asia; and Russia dominion over its relevant areas, and while Europe might have something to say about it, Trump is fixated on reducing their voice.

Now I have no insight whatsoever as to whether that analysis is correct. I'll just say that if Trump was thinking like that, his course of conduct here -- inviting Russia for a great-power carve-up, like Metternich -- would be exactly what he is currently doing.
 
open.substack.com

Trump's Ukraine policy and the pivot east

The theory that he's just a proxy for Putin misses his real - and dangerous - agenda.
open.substack.com open.substack.com

“I have zero interest in relitigating the Russiagate controversy any further because it is frankly boring as hell and everyone has already made up their mind anyway, but what I will say is that this analysis lets Trump off far too easy.

Trump’s policy in Ukraine is entirely subordinate to his belief that the United States military needs to reorient itself towards a potential conflict with China. This means, among other things, drawing down the US’s commitments to NATO and European security. If you do not understand Trump’s pivot to China you will leave him open to misguided anti-imperialist and isolationist defenses that he is responsibly winding down American empire — a dangerous misinterpretation.”
 
Paine said:
open.substack.com

Trump's Ukraine policy and the pivot east

The theory that he's just a proxy for Putin misses his real - and dangerous - agenda.
open.substack.com open.substack.com

“I have zero interest in relitigating the Russiagate controversy any further because it is frankly boring as hell and everyone has already made up their mind anyway, but what I will say is that this analysis lets Trump off far too easy.

Trump’s policy in Ukraine is entirely subordinate to his belief that the United States military needs to reorient itself towards a potential conflict with China. This means, among other things, drawing down the US’s commitments to NATO and European security. If you do not understand Trump’s pivot to China you will leave him open to misguided anti-imperialist and isolationist defenses that he is responsibly winding down American empire — a dangerous misinterpretation.”
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I don't think this is right. Trump doesn't actually want a showdown with Beijing. Nothing he's done suggests that he's a China hawk. For one thing, his tariffs on China are oddly lower than what he wants to impose on the rest of the world.

What Trump wants is territorial conquest, and is happy to let China take Taiwan if China lets Trump take Greenland and the Panama Canal.

And while I agree that Trump wants Europe to take responsibility for checking Putin, he also wants Europe to lose that battle.
 
More like PIECE negotiations:
- Putin takes a larger PIECE of Ukraine
- Trump takes a large PIECE of Ukranian minerals
- Putin gets a huge PIECE of American forces out of the Baltics and Europe
- Ukraine gets no PIECE of NATO
- Euro takes a large PIECE of trade and buying weapons elsewhere (China, South America, SE Asia)
- A large PIECE of our nuclear and Russia's nuclear arsenal are at risk.
 
superrific said:
I don't think this is right. Trump doesn't actually want a showdown with Beijing. Nothing he's done suggests that he's a China hawk. For one thing, his tariffs on China are oddly lower than what he wants to impose on the rest of the world.

What Trump wants is territorial conquest, and is happy to let China take Taiwan if China lets Trump take Greenland and the Panama Canal.

And while I agree that Trump wants Europe to take responsibility for checking Putin, he also wants Europe to lose that battle.
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Trump is a coward.

But he's also an idiot.
 
Callatoroy said:
Why is that your

Under no circumstance was russia going to withdraw back to its original borders. That isn't my opinion, that's a very common and accepted opinion. The same applies to nato membership for ukraine. Just not going to happen if russia is going to negotiate a peace. The US has no leverage other than continuing to throw money at ukraine to extend until ukraine loses the war of attrition. russia has all the leverage because they can continue to ship oil to fund the war. So, you can keep sending ukraine 150 billion a year for the next 5 years until ukraine runs out of dudes to fight, or try to negotiate a peace deal that secures long-term security for ukraine and creates far less instability in the world.
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Russia is getting pennies on the dollar for their crappy high sulfer oil to Chyna and India. The Ruble is tanking. Russia is on the ropes and should have been defeated in 2022 if Biden had given Zelenskyy the air power he needed before the Orcs set up their minefields.
 
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lol The Ruble is in horrible shape but making a slight comeback since Jan 20. What are the odds?

I blame Biden in part for not making sure the Orange Menace was in prison and Putin was defeated. Putin's got untrained NK kids on the front lines.

This will not end well.
 
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