Stock Market/Investing/Fin Planning Catch-All

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aGDevil2k said:
I moved 2/3 of my retirement (the part that is in a target index) to a much more conservative index for the next 3 months. Not pulling out of the market, but I wanted something more conservative because I just dont feel good about the coming quarter of news. Maybe it drops a bit by then and I buy back into the original index. Or maybe I just miss a couple of points of growth in the short term, but I feel better with it a little safer
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I'm the last thing from an expert but I think that's smart. It's hard to imagine a scenario in which the broader economy, and thus the index, does well over the next 2-4 years. Certain companies will do extremely well. But the economy as a whole is on perilous ground I'm afraid.
 
I’m down to 1/3 equities, across an individual retirement/investment account, Roth, and 403b, and those equities are all blue chips (eg aapl, wal, cat, dis, etc). The remainder sits in treasuries, money markets, and a little in a real estate income etf. I’m not of the typical age for such a conservative profile, but I’ve been fortunate with past investing and don’t need the upside gamble. The volatility isn’t my bag.
 
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gregh1 said:
It's a weird world when there are FOUR leveraged ETFs for a single traded company. The number of features or products in the financial world is ridiculous, and the amount of money and effort just in the infrastructure for them seems nonsensical since it feels so speculative.

I'd love to see a pie chart of the size of the US financial industry today compared to other economies AND past civilizations.

Banking probably isn't too tough but investing/speculation is probably hard to calc back in medieval era for example. Maybe we'd find the 40's gold rush to be huge proportionally or something unexpected.
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Even Berkshire Hathaway has a 2.0x leverage bukk etf. But that one is alittle safter since it raraely drops 40-50% and is less volatile.

Meta went down 60% in 2022 an early 2023, so a 2.0 Meta bull would go down..... That is the danger of these and why they are short term trading vehicles.
10% drop need 11 gain to recoup
25 drop need 33
33 need 50
50 need 100
80 need 400
90 need 900%
Dems do tend to overregulate at times IMO but that does not cause crashes. Rs from Reagan through Bush and Trump IMO dramatically over deregulate which produces a sugar fix but then an inevitable crash when financial instituiions go craZy (see S&L crises, 2007=08 collapse financial system etc. I think bitcoin, derivative, AI influence in systems. bad loan s, and levrage will all factor in the next crash down the road.
 
Still going strong with 100% of my investment portfolio in equities. Figure I’ve got another decade or so before I start incorporating bonds. Might be an extremely risky tolerance given what might be coming down the pike economically over the next couple of years, but I figure I have such a long horizon of time until I need any of it that I can stomach volatility, so no intention of altering my allocation anytime soon. #JustKeepBuying
 
Selfish question
All my "CDs" are up the next two weeks I have earned 5.1 % (pretax of course) the last year-Today it would be in the 4.5 range
If everything goes to hell this week will that type of return likely to go up or down when I have to reup at say Feb 15 rates???
 
mpaer said:
Selfish question
All my "CDs" are up the next two weeks I have earned 5.1 % (pretax of course) the last year-Today it would be in the 4.5 range
If everything goes to hell this week will that type of return likely to go up or down when I have to reup at say Feb 15 rates???
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I'm guessing if everything goes to hell in the bond markets then CD rates may inch up a smidge...
 
superrific said:
That would be weird. At least some of this has to be priced in already. It's not as if Trump has been shy about broadcasting his plans.
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I don't think people actually believed that Trump would do the things he is doing. They may have priced in some tariffs but I doubt the DOGE stuff is priced in.

Only Trump and his inner circle really know what is just a bluff and what is not and they are probably positioned to make a lot of money off of that knowledge.

I am almost certain that the worst scenarios that have a decent chance of happening are not priced in. I think we have a real chance that things can get really bad - like the worst economic conditions in our lifetimes.

There aren't any adults in the room to help us if these actions start a cascade of failures similar to 2008.

Note: I never bought those SPY put options I was thinking about buying. Might have been a mistake. We'll see.
 
ChapelHillSooner said:
I don't think people actually believed that Trump would do the things he is doing.
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Well, Ramrouser and others told us that he wasn't going to do all the things he said he would do...

I'm sure Ram is financially set and just waiting for the tax cuts, so he doesn't care.

I need another 25% to reach my retirement goal over the next 5 years, I don't need to be going backwards.

Of course, I'm also thinking it might be a good time to sell my house and rent for a while.
 
I live on my retirement (State retirement )-which will get eaten up by inflation--But I save my Soc Sec and my "invesments"-which approx equal my Soc sec. My goal is to increase my inheritance to my kids-if I must I will spend it on Dementia care etc So if it all goes to hell I will leave my kids less or nothing-and maybe have a couple yrs dementia care..........
So fuck me - I am okay.I am seriously concerned about the 30ish % of folks that wil fall down a hole if it all goes to Hell
And that is totally on the Republican Party . 100%
Duh Huh to those that voted for Orangeturd
 
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I’m not that worried about tariffs because it’s easily reversed if need be. I’m much more concerned about the autocratic actions.
 
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