Stock Market/Investing/Fin Planning Catch-All

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LosPollosHermanos said:
I've never tried to time the market and I'm not gonna start now. I think the most likely scenario if there is a true rout, is he backs off and strikes a deal to save face. He will then say he started high on tariffs as a negotiating move and ended up where he wanted to all along. And stocks will quickly recover as it becomes more obvious he is a paper tiger.
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Ideally our trading partners will not let him off the hook.
 
The more modest trade wars in Trump 1 had five effects
1) Consumers paid a reported $70 billion in extra costs from tariffs being passed down
2) Trump personally negotiated the new Mexico, Canada and US trade agme and he personally named it USMCA, He now claims we have a horrible trade agreemen with Mexico and CAnada: maybe he should get someone else to negotiate for him
3) China retalitaed by stopping purchases of US ag products. US had to subsidize peronal and corporate farms to a reporter $60 billion
4) China and US signed a frivolous new ag purchase agmt which has been essenially ignored
5) A significant number of small and mid-sise family farmers went out of business

So expect same this go-round: collatewral damage, and Trump signing all sorts of worthless agreem4nts and claimign victory, Same playbook he used when filing for business bankrupties several times before becoming president
 
LosPollosHermanos said:
I've never tried to time the market and I'm not gonna start now. I think the most likely scenario if there is a true rout, is he backs off and strikes a deal to save face. He will then say he started high on tariffs as a negotiating move and ended up where he wanted to all along. And stocks will quickly recover as it becomes more obvious he is a paper tiger.

It's obvious right now a lot of people are looking for reasons to sell and are antsy. But lately any time there is a mild selloff, like 3% or whatever over some overreaction, it's right back up in a week. I mean look at what happened in the Nasdaq with the Deepseek stuff, then it looked like it would hit its peak again on Friday until the tariff stuff spooked people.

I got in a panic last time he was elected, but still didn't sell, and everything was fine until Covid. And that selloff recovered quickly. Maybe I'm just too optimistic but overall this economy is doing fine. I just don't see any reason for a sustained selloff. I'm also 15 years from what I would consider a normal retirement age, although ideally I'd like to officially retire in ten, but I've got some time to ride out a few dips.
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I stayed fully invested through all that and have never believed in timing the market. But this is different. Elon and his henchmen now control the system for payments to vendors at the Treasury dept and Elon will now decide who gets paid. The cash flow of a lot of companies and organizations will be negatively impacted. The people who know how to run the system are gone and the system is being purposely wrecked. This is different.
 
Buy when other people are sellng and sell when other people are buying. Not that I do either, because I just let it sit there. But this seems like one of those situations where a lot of the littles are gonna panic sell and a lot of the bigs are gonna get a nice discount.
 
LosPollosHermanos said:
Buy when other people are sellng and sell when other people are buying. Not that I do either, because I just let it sit there. But this seems like one of those situations where a lot of the littles are gonna panic sell and a lot of the bigs are gonna get a nice discount.
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Buy the dip!
 
LosPollosHermanos said:
Buy when other people are sellng and sell when other people are buying. Not that I do either, because I just let it sit there. But this seems like one of those situations where a lot of the littles are gonna panic sell and a lot of the bigs are gonna get a nice discount.
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Which may be the intent...
 
This is straight out of his playbook. Puff hard on tarrifs. His idiot base hears the word tariff a few times and thinks he's doing something when they don't even know what a tariff is. Then he backs off and claims he did more than he actually did.
 
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LosPollosHermanos said:
This is straight out of his playoff. Puff hard on tarrifs. His idiot base hears the word tariff a few times and thinks he's doing something when they don't even know what a tariff is. Then he backs off and claims he did more than he actually did.
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I really wonder how much rank and file GOP will tolerate Trump wrecking the economy. They owe fealty to Trump, but they also know that they don't really have the loyalty of his cult....if the economy tanks, they'll lose their jobs.

I don't know much about this stuff; I've found it intesting that Canada is essentially prepared to do what they can to specfically wreck red state economies in retaliation. It makes sense. I wonder how quick it will take effect and how effective it will be. It would be great if, to the extent possible, the people that voted for this feel most of its impact.
 
lawtig02 said:
The Art of the Deal my ass.


Just about everyone thought it was a bluff. Top analysts from the biggest banks on Wall Street said it was highly unlikely. Stocks were trading like it wouldn’t happen. Some companies built contingency plans, but they weren’t exactly rushing to make changes.
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Futures were way down over the weekend but now it's pretty meh. The Dow may end up poisitive for the day.
 
Jamison2Carter said:
I really wonder how much rank and file GOP will tolerate Trump wrecking the economy. They owe fealty to Trump, but they also know that they don't really have the loyalty of his cult....if the economy tanks, they'll lose their jobs.

I don't know much about this stuff; I've found it intesting that Canada is essentially prepared to do what they can to specfically wreck red state economies in retaliation. It makes sense. I wonder how quick it will take effect and how effective it will be. It would be great if, to the extent possible, the people that voted for this feel most of its impact.
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I want to know what both GOP and Dem are doing with their stocks. Are they selling, shorting, holding or buying?
 
LosPollosHermanos said:
This is straight out of his playbook. Puff hard on tarrifs. His idiot base hears the word tariff a few times and thinks he's doing something when they don't even know what a tariff is. Then he backs off and claims he did more than he actually did.
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That's exactly what he's doing.
 
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