Stock Market/Investing/Fin Planning Catch-All

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ChapelHillSooner said:
I do wonder if buying deep in the money puts is a better plan. You aren’t going to get huge returns but probably aren’t going to lose it all. But if I did that it would be after
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Do you think options traders haven't thought about that? I mean, there are thousands of them at least who have done this full time for decades, highly incentivized to come up with good techniques, and either they've learned that the techniques don't work or they are already being used to price the options and there's no gain to be had.

Trading options is an even worse idea, I think, for relative novices because the options traders are mostly professional. The options market DGAF about meme stocks or whether Elon Musk helms Tesla or whatever. And while you sort of are betting on the price movements of the underlying asset, it's a bit like playing poker: you're going to come out behind if you are taking profits too quickly or not cutting losses soon enough.

Your money, but obviously I have a strong opinion here. It's not personal to you. It's a general rule that I apply to myself also.
 
heelinhell said:
I'm down 3% from my yearly high back on 2/25... but I have had 40% in cash paying 4% to offset my widow and orphan stock losses .

I have been an investor for 40 years and this is the first time I've been completely perplexed as to what to do...

go all cash ?
bottom fish to pick up bargains ?
do nothing ?

I think I will follow the advice of the great Merle Haggard and just stay here and drink

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I sold about 20% of my stock portfolio right before the election. Felt a correction was coming eventually and really feared a trade war (never imagined the mess we got this week). Was second guessing myself after the market surged post-election but looks like it was some good strategy.

Stock and index funds are about 30% of my holdings. A good chunk is in boring2 year CDs paying 4.5-6%. And have a decent amount of cash in money markets that was waiting on a correction...but tbh Im a little scare on putting it in right now even though there are some great bargains to be had.
 
Was a very good first six weels, terrible last two months. Usual best performers such as tech now down 10-20% or more. Segments of health care doing bestr so far this year.
Overall in terms of stocks/etfs/funds, down about 9%. As Mr. T said in Rocky 3: "Prediction? Pain...."

YTD personal best performers. Up from 10-54%

CVS. BRKU, TMDX. MCK, VRTX, UBER, CI, ELV, TMUS, MELI, UNH, ORLY, PLTR, BRK-B, HWM, LNTH, TPL, CRWD, HCA. GE.
 
superrific said:
Do you think options traders haven't thought about that? I mean, there are thousands of them at least who have done this full time for decades, highly incentivized to come up with good techniques, and either they've learned that the techniques don't work or they are already being used to price the options and there's no gain to be had.

Trading options is an even worse idea, I think, for relative novices because the options traders are mostly professional. The options market DGAF about meme stocks or whether Elon Musk helms Tesla or whatever. And while you sort of are betting on the price movements of the underlying asset, it's a bit like playing poker: you're going to come out behind if you are taking profits too quickly or not cutting losses soon enough.

Your money, but obviously I have a strong opinion here. It's not personal to you. It's a general rule that I apply to myself also.
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I have no plans of doing anything as Trump is far too big of a wildcard. Learned my lesson on that one. Any tweet can send markets rising or falling 10% or more.

I was just posting the thought for discussion. And honestly I didn’t actually mean to post it as I knew it would incorrectly be viewed as something I was planning to do. That is why the thought was incomplete. This board’s multiple quote with save feature makes it easy ton accidentally post something you intended to delete.
 
stock market is simply due for a crash. throw in trumps dumbass tariff war with china and its gonna get really nasty....just watch
 
So yesterday the stock market was down around 15% since Trump took office, and yes the tariffs are just now beginning to hammer the economy, but I am not worried as long as calla and HY aren't worried;)
 
heelinhell said:
So yesterday the stock market was down around 15% since Trump took office, and yes the tariffs are just now beginning to hammer the economy, but I am not worried as long as calla and HY aren't worried;)
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I haven't read a post from them in a month, we may need an APB to find out if they are OK.
 
Looking for some input on what to do with a low six-figure cash sum. Obviously this climate is crazy right now, but in general, medium risk or less sounds about right (relative to other assets and retirement needs way down the line).

Needs to be relatively less complicated, I really don’t like finance and it’s mostly Greek to me.

Currently in a CD paying ~5% that’s maturing soon. I’m sure the new rate will be lower, but given the general instability should I just keep it there for now??
 
heelinhell said:
If I knew where they lived I would call 911 and request a wellness check.

Who knows ? They may be buried in their backyards and someone is cashing their social security checks:eek:
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Nah, they are both active on the IC sports boards. But I'm sure that when they do show back up, they will have their typical lame a$$ excuses for their absence from this board.
 
duluoz said:
Looking for some input on what to do with a low six-figure cash sum. Obviously this climate is crazy right now, but in general, medium risk or less sounds about right (relative to other assets and retirement needs way down the line).

Needs to be relatively less complicated, I really don’t like finance and it’s mostly Greek to me.

Currently in a CD paying ~5% that’s maturing soon. I’m sure the new rate will be lower, but given the general instability should I just keep it there for now??
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as long as your cd is fdic protected i would just leave or move to savings acct some are paying over 4%. i bank with first citizens so i prefer cit.com which is a part of them

stock market gonna crash bigly sooner than later better be prepared
 
duluoz said:
Looking for some input on what to do with a low six-figure cash sum. Obviously this climate is crazy right now, but in general, medium risk or less sounds about right (relative to other assets and retirement needs way down the line).

Needs to be relatively less complicated, I really don’t like finance and it’s mostly Greek to me.

Currently in a CD paying ~5% that’s maturing soon. I’m sure the new rate will be lower, but given the general instability should I just keep it there for now??
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When you say "keep it there for now" do you mean until the CD matures or do you mean roll it over after maturity ?

If you are going to hold your CD until maturity and roll it over, it looks like 6 month-1 yr CDs are paying a bit above 4%. I think we will know whether the Trump economy will implode or become the greatest economy in the history of all mankind by this time next year so I would keep it in a 6 -9 month CD and see what happens.

Caveat: I am an old codger who has 60% in cash and 40% in dividend stocks and has zero confidence in a Trump/GQP managed economy so take my advice with a grain of salt ;)
 
heelinhell said:
When you say "keep it there for now" do you mean until the CD matures or do you mean roll it over after maturity ?

If you are going to hold your CD until maturity and roll it over, it looks like 6 month-1 yr CDs are paying a bit above 4%. I think we will know whether the Trump economy will implode or become the greatest economy in the history of all mankind by this time next year so I would keep it in a 6 -9 month CD and see what happens.

Caveat: I am an old codger who has 60% in cash and 40% in dividend stocks and has zero confidence in a Trump/GQP managed economy so take my advice with a grain of salt ;)
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Yeah if that’s what I decide, after maturity I’d move it into whatever CD/term gives the best rate. Right now it looks like 3 mo and 7 mo are giving basically the same rate, and longer term CDs are giving lower than those.
 
duluoz said:
Looking for some input on what to do with a low six-figure cash sum. Obviously this climate is crazy right now, but in general, medium risk or less sounds about right (relative to other assets and retirement needs way down the line).

Needs to be relatively less complicated, I really don’t like finance and it’s mostly Greek to me.

Currently in a CD paying ~5% that’s maturing soon. I’m sure the new rate will be lower, but given the general instability should I just keep it there for now??
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It's really hard to find no risk right now. See what has been happening with Treasury bonds?

The problem with 5% is that inflation might be 7% this year.

I don't have any good advice. I put some money into an Indian ETF, betting on Trump giving India a pass in the end because of Modi. India stands to benefit from China losing production if this trade war goes on. Is this a low risk investment? It is very much not.

Probably the best thing to do is diversify across countries. Get into some euroland exposure, either by companies that sell a lot to Europe or just European stocks (some of which trade in the US, some of which can be purchased through funds).
 
superrific said:
It's really hard to find no risk right now. See what has been happening with Treasury bonds?
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What’s the story with treasury bonds?

An advisor mentioned them to me as a slightly better rate currently than most CDs for comparable terms.

But the biggest appeal seemed to be that for a treasury bond’s yields I wouldn’t incur state/NYC taxes… whereas with a CD, I would incur both, along with federal tax.
 
duluoz said:
What’s the story with treasury bonds?

An advisor mentioned them to me as a slightly better rate currently than most CDs for comparable terms.

But the biggest appeal seemed to be that for a treasury bond’s yields I wouldn’t incur state/NYC taxes… whereas with a CD, I would incur both, along with federal tax.
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So just put your money in VYFXX ?

It's a NY municipal money market fund that has had a 7 day yield of 4.2% and you owe no fed or state income tax should you cash in :)
 
duluoz said:
What’s the story with treasury bonds?
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They are wildly fluctuating in value because of complete uncertainty as to what is happening with US economic policy. The problem with debt is that the upside is limited but the downside isn't really. While the treasury isn't going to go bankrupt, there are major concerns about fiscal solvency.

Remember that story about how the IRS says tax collections will decrease by $500B because DOGE? I've been skeptical but let's say it's true. Well, that thrusts the debt ceiling issue to the forefront more quickly than anyone anticipates. Treasury won't run out of money in June; it will run out in early May (perhaps) and suddenly the ceiling needs to be raised. Think the GOP could get that done in an emergency?

Point is, a lot can go wrong with treasuries and you're not getting much upside at 4%.
 
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