Stock Market/Investing/Fin Planning Catch-All

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As they said on CNBC today the fact that he feels the need to tweet about it and make baseless excuses shows that market performance matters a lot to him.
 
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ChapelHillSooner said:
I think you misunderstood my post. I am mostly cash and puzzled why today was green. That wasn’t a gloat if you took it that way.
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my bad😥

I am very heavy in cash, as well, and hunkering down for what the next 3 months brings. It's hard to know day to day what the market is "thinking" just as it is hard to know minute to minute what Trump is "thinking"

One way or the other the truth will out this summer...
 
The market seems to be wishcasting, trying to will it's way up, up, and up every day. Of course by "the market" I mean money flows in versus out each day.

The market is forward looking. By all accounts, we are set up for a disastrous 2nd and 3rd quarters. Increased pricing , and true economic slowdown (as evidenced by qtrly. reported earnings) have not hit yet.

The negative .3% GDP for Q1 has been mainly brushed aside. That is perhaps fair if looking in the rear view mirror. Much of that "downturn" was due to a huge spike in imports, which is a negative on GDP. That huge spike in imports was due to trying to build inventory before the tariffs hit.

I predict the spin will be for Q2, look, we had positive GDP of .8%, that is better than Q1. But you can't have it both ways. That big spike in imports in Q1 (a negative to GDP) will not be there in Q2. A .8% growth on annualized basis does NOT support outrageously high P/E's of 25X to 60X+.

Then add in unemployment and inflation ticking higher, and the market will have a big wake up call. The day traders will flee so fast, along with a lot of other money.
 
Kraftyheel89 said:
The market seems to be wishcasting, trying to will it's way up, up, and up every day. Of course by "the market" I mean money flows in versus out each day.

The market is forward looking. By all accounts, we are set up for a disastrous 2nd and 3rd quarters. Increased pricing , and true economic slowdown (as evidenced by qtrly. reported earnings) have not hit yet.

The negative .3% GDP for Q1 has been mainly brushed aside. That is perhaps fair if looking in the rear view mirror. Much of that "downturn" was due to a huge spike in imports, which is a negative on GDP. That huge spike in imports was due to trying to build inventory before the tariffs hit.

I predict the spin will be for Q2, look, we had positive GDP of .8%, that is better than Q1. But you can't have it both ways. That big spike in imports in Q1 (a negative to GDP) will not be there in Q2. A .8% growth on annualized basis does NOT support outrageously high P/E's of 25X to 60X+.

Then add in unemployment and inflation ticking higher, and the market will have a big wake up call. The day traders will flee so fast, along with a lot of other money.
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Something said "retail investors" were leading the rally this week. I assume that means more emotion and momentum vs fundamental investing. I've wonder if all the algo trading and high frequency trading and reddit-bro trading, etc would make the markets less "forward looking" and just more speculative based on _____ (junk?).
 
Retail traders buying on current news, of prior data, yes. Jeremy Siegal, Finance Prof at (evil) Harvard made a great point today. The market used to trade on both qtrly earnings AND macroeconomic reports. He said those reports no longer exist, and stock analysts basically review latest or current quarterly reports only. But this is surely a day traders dream, and a fool's market
 
Kraftyheel89 said:
The market seems to be wishcasting, trying to will it's way up, up, and up every day. Of course by "the market" I mean money flows in versus out each day.

The market is forward looking. By all accounts, we are set up for a disastrous 2nd and 3rd quarters. Increased pricing , and true economic slowdown (as evidenced by qtrly. reported earnings) have not hit yet.

The negative .3% GDP for Q1 has been mainly brushed aside. That is perhaps fair if looking in the rear view mirror. Much of that "downturn" was due to a huge spike in imports, which is a negative on GDP. That huge spike in imports was due to trying to build inventory before the tariffs hit.

I predict the spin will be for Q2, look, we had positive GDP of .8%, that is better than Q1. But you can't have it both ways. That big spike in imports in Q1 (a negative to GDP) will not be there in Q2. A .8% growth on annualized basis does NOT support outrageously high P/E's of 25X to 60X+.

Then add in unemployment and inflation ticking higher, and the market will have a big wake up call. The day traders will flee so fast, along with a lot of other money.
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That is not true that imports are a negative on GDP. If reporting is accurate, imports should have no impact on GDP.

The formula is: GDP = C + I + G + (X - M).

Imports (M) are only subtracted because they already show up in C, I, or G.

Now, there could be indirect impacts of importing. Imports could steal consumption of US made products. It could steal from domestic business investments as they load up inventories of foreign products.

But too many people see the "X - M" and think that imports directly reduce GDP. It does not. They are only subtracted as they would otherwise increase GDP.

Maybe they are talking about the indirect results as people have limited capital to spend but the journalism community needs to be more clear on that.

I think Q2 GDP is going to be terrible.
 
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