Tariffs Catch-All

[nycfan]

“…A false dawn on the tariff front fueled a brief rally Monday morning, with the S&P 500 surging some 7% from its low on the day, before the administration clarified that there will be no delay in implementing new levies.

The episode, which touched off wild swings throughout the trading day, highlights the increasing desperation on Wall Street as the trade-war rout of 2025 extends into a new week.

By the 4 p.m. close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.9%, or 349 points. The Nasdaq Composite finished 0.1% higher, and the S&P 500 was down 0.2%. …”

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-trump-tariffs-trade-war-04-07-25?mod=breakingnews

 

[nycfan]

[except we are, albeit a lot less than we used to do]

 

[nycfan]

 

[nycfan]

 

[nycfan]

[also reiterates 50% additional tariff threat to China if they don’t drop their retaliatory tariffs by noon tomorrow]

 

[Patb78]

It's absolute nonsense. Here's the best analogy I can think of to what Trump is doing right now.

Johnny works at ACME Co. By all economic measures, ACME is doing great. Profits are at an all-time high. It's hiring talented new employees. It has a significant competitive advantage over its peer companies. But Johnny is not happy. He's ticked off that the Snickers in the break room vending machine just went from $1 to $1.25. He's ticked off that the guy in the cubicle next to him was born in India and eats curry for lunch. And he's REALLY ticked off that ACME changed one of the mostly-unused men's restrooms into a restroom that could be used by either men or women. So Johnny decides things need to change, and the only way to bring about that change is to murder every single person who works for ACME and take control of the company himself. When the first responders arrive on the scene to find Johnny sitting behind the desk in the CEO's office, Johnny tells them, "I get that all those people I killed are suffering in the short term, but this needed to happen for the long term health of the company. You just have to trust me on that."

Using ACME as the company also brings to mind someone else who didn’t know what he was doing - Wile E. Coyote.

 

[ChapelHillSooner]

Trump says EU was “formed to really do damage to the United States in trade. … they formed together to create a little bit of a monopoly situation to create a unified force against the United States for trade …”

That is pure narcissism right there. Trump think that the US has some inherent right to be rule over the world economically and any move others make to protect themselves from that is an attack.

 

[ChapelHillSooner]

Anyone considering watching Fox News to get a read on what Trump will do? If they are still 100% pro-tariff then I think Trump will stay the course. I know he watches it constantly and probably views it as a barometer.

And, yes, I know that I'll probably have to go throw up afterwards.

 

[Patb78]

Would JD Vance change any Trumplican policies?

If Vance becomes president I think Congress will change its role in this (which so far has been a big fat fucking 0). Vance can’t command the loyalty that trump does. Hopefully the Republicans in Congress who realize what’s going on, but have been acting like spineless curs, will then step forward, now that the wannabe dictator is gone, and work with Dems to straighten this shit out. Can at least hope.

 

[sringwal]

[except we are, albeit a lot less than we used to do]

So the plan is to get into such a ridiculous trade war that Americans have to buy from Russia? Bold move, Cotton.

 

[UNCatTech]

It is when you are delusional.

Doesn't seem like RJ has thought this through.

 

[UNCatTech]

[except we are, albeit a lot less than we used to do]

Trump tariffed plenty of places that we are not doing business with since he's not an agent for their country. Either that or they don't have the same blackmail material that Russia has.

 

[superrific]

It's absolute nonsense. Here's the best analogy I can think of to what Trump is doing right now.

Johnny works at ACME Co. By all economic measures, ACME is doing great. Profits are at an all-time high. It's hiring talented new employees. It has a significant competitive advantage over its peer companies. But Johnny is not happy. He's ticked off that the Snickers in the break room vending machine just went from $1 to $1.25. He's ticked off that the guy in the cubicle next to him was born in India and eats curry for lunch. And he's REALLY ticked off that ACME changed one of the mostly-unused men's restrooms into a restroom that could be used by either men or women. So Johnny decides things need to change, and the only way to bring about that change is to murder every single person who works for ACME and take control of the company himself. When the first responders arrive on the scene to find Johnny sitting behind the desk in the CEO's office, Johnny tells them, "I get that all those people I killed are suffering in the short term, but this needed to happen for the long term health of the company. You just have to trust me on that."

I agree with this. I will say that maybe we shouldn't caricature Johnny quite to that extent.

You and I have been both saying for years -- I have, at least -- that MAGA is really much more about race/gender than economic anxiety, which is mostly a cover. You've got the main threats identified, but Johnny's economic situation isn't that trivial, is it? It can be true that economic struggles are real and not the primary motivator (and certainly not exclusive motivator).

I guess I would like this analogy better if Johnny is not happy because his health insurance premiums went up by 25%. I think it doesn't change your point at all while adding a bit more empathy in the details.

 

[superrific]

Doesn't seem like RJ has thought this through.

Sure he has. He's going Galt. People who go Galt don't ask pesky questions like, "In Galtlandia, where everyone is a hard-charging entrepreneur, who are the laborers?" They know everything will work out in the end, 'cause markets and freedom.

 

[Zoo_View]

If Vance becomes president I think Congress will change its role in this (which so far has been a big fat fucking 0). Vance can’t command the loyalty that trump does. Hopefully the Republicans in Congress who realize what’s going on, but have been acting like spineless curs, will then step forward, now that the wannabe dictator is gone, and work with Dems to straighten this shit out. Can at least hope.

What will MAGA do if the VP and Cabinet “25th” Trump?

It’s a laughable hypothetical - Vance and the Cabinet will not “25th” Trump.

 

[UNCatTech]

It's absolute nonsense. Here's the best analogy I can think of to what Trump is doing right now.

Johnny works at ACME Co. By all economic measures, ACME is doing great. Profits are at an all-time high. It's hiring talented new employees. It has a significant competitive advantage over its peer companies. But Johnny is not happy. He's ticked off that the Snickers in the break room vending machine just went from $1 to $1.25. He's ticked off that the guy in the cubicle next to him was born in India and eats curry for lunch. And he's REALLY ticked off that ACME changed one of the mostly-unused men's restrooms into a restroom that could be used by either men or women. So Johnny decides things need to change, and the only way to bring about that change is to murder every single person who works for ACME and take control of the company himself. When the first responders arrive on the scene to find Johnny sitting behind the desk in the CEO's office, Johnny tells them, "I get that all those people I killed are suffering in the short term, but this needed to happen for the long term health of the company. You just have to trust me on that."

The problem is if the first aid responder is a trump cult member, then he says ok, had to be done, and leaves.

 

[superrific]

Anyone considering watching Fox News to get a read on what Trump will do? If they are still 100% pro-tariff then I think Trump will stay the course. I know he watches it constantly and probably views it as a barometer.

And, yes, I know that I'll probably have to go throw up afterwards.

I doubt Fox News is 100% pro-tariff, especially with folks like Ted Cruz speaking out against the tariffs.

I don't think Trump is taking cues from Fox News. It's Murdoch media just like WSJ and we know what he thinks of WSJ.

I suspect we're just witnessing his profound narcissism metastasize into a messianic megalomania. He gets off on making the world tremble, and of course he is the savior because why else would God have saved him.

 

[UNCatTech]

The tariffs are so bad that I read 10 republican congressmen are threatening to consider doing their job and regulating commerce.

 

[Patb78]

What will MAGA do if the VP and Cabinet “25th” Trump?

It’s a laughable hypothetical - Vance and the Cabinet will not “25th” Trump.

I agree. It would take something like Trump suffering a massive stroke that totally incapacitates him for them to try 25. I was thinking more like a trump buying the farm scenario.

 

[superrific]

If Vance becomes president I think Congress will change its role in this (which so far has been a big fat fucking 0). Vance can’t command the loyalty that trump does. Hopefully the Republicans in Congress who realize what’s going on, but have been acting like spineless curs, will then step forward, now that the wannabe dictator is gone, and work with Dems to straighten this shit out. Can at least hope.

This is correct, in my view.

BTW, and this point isn't necessarily addressed to you, the 25th Amendment is not really a way to backstab a president. The removal from office only lasts a short period of time after the president declares himself fit (which would basically be immediate). It only becomes permanent with the 2/3 vote from both houses. Which means that it's harder to 25th than to impeach/convict.

An impeachment would be more likely than a 25th, though obviously still very remote. There will come a time, I think, when GOPers in Congress decide they have to run away from Trump, but probably not to get rid of him. OTOH, if he's polling at 20% and there's been a D +15 shift in the national political environment (both unlikely but neither impossible, depending on the depth of the chaos/recession), who knows.