Tariffs Catch-All

  • Thread starter Thread starter BubbaOtis
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Sorry, I thought I had my graph set on one minute bars but it's 5 minute bars. Still, a 325 jump in the S&P's in 15 minutes is.. something. The Dow's jump (from low tick to high) was 2460 points in 15 minutes. Damn...
 
I'm so glad that those responsible for our first liberation had a bit more resilience than Trump.

What a fucking laughingstock.
 
lawtig02 said:
What a fucking dumb fuck. Thanks, dumb fuck Trump voters.
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The irony is that, even in lifting the tariffs, he did so in the stupidest possible way. "Pausing" them for 90 days does not take away uncertainty. So we're going to get decreased economic activity, and collect no revenue.

Literally, Trump has been bragging about tariff revenue but have we actually had tariffs in place long enough to collect anything?
 
superrific said:
Right. That I understand. Absolutely.

The problem, though, is that the multiplicative markup only exacerbates that issue, right? Let's say a product leaves the factory costing $20. Old system: wholesaler marks it up 50%, so now it's $30. Retailer also marks it up, let's say 50% (I don't know the numbers and they don't matter much), so it's now retailing for $45.

New system: product leaves the factory costing $40. Wholesaler marks it up to $60 and the retailer maintains that 50% margin and it's now retailing for $90. That's a doubling in price because there's a doubling at every stage. But if the wholesaler retains the $10 markup and the retailer the $15 markup -- which were profitable! -- then the retail price is $65. Bad, but hell of a lot better than $90.

Just seems to me that distributors would lose a lot more revenue by pumping prices to the point where product can't be sold, than by keeping their markup tied to their value-add. But again, it's often the case that people who merely observe markets from the outside, with little detail, will often see irrationality where none exists. I'm trying to avoid that, but I'd still like it to make sense.
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Yea, but in both cases the end consumer is the one paying the increase, they have limited funds and they are setting these increases on multiple items, it's going to be bad.
 
superrific said:
The irony is that, even in lifting the tariffs, he did so in the stupidest possible way. "Pausing" them for 90 days does not take away uncertainty. So we're going to get decreased economic activity, and collect no revenue.

Literally, Trump has been bragging about tariff revenue but have we actually had tariffs in place long enough to collect anything?
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Also NO ONE is going to invest in manufacturing when they can't guarantee if the tariffs will be in place to necessitate said manufacturing investment.
 
superrific said:
The irony is that, even in lifting the tariffs, he did so in the stupidest possible way. "Pausing" them for 90 days does not take away uncertainty. So we're going to get decreased economic activity, and collect no revenue.

Literally, Trump has been bragging about tariff revenue but have we actually had tariffs in place long enough to collect anything?
Click to expand...
A pause does show that he's not a irrational as he made the markets appear he was.
 
Bessent is on TV telling us how brilliant Trump is to have achieved this sort of negotiating leverage with his tariffs. "75 counties have come to us to renegotiate and we need time because the President wants to be personally involved in the negotiations with each country."

"China is a bad actor and must pay for its retaliation."
 
It's pretty hard to maintain the idea that trade is a national emergency when Trump can't keep a policy in place for a week.

As I predicted, Trump doesn't have the patience for an actual trade war, though I thought he might stay engaged for longer than a week.
 
Bessent looks like a fool.

ETA: but I guess we knew that when he agreed to take a position in the Trump administration.
 
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