Tariffs Catch-All

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I don't think it was the stock market that changed the rhetoric out of the orange house, those drops were expected and baked in. It absolutely was the bond market that changed the tone. Overnight, Treasury yields were going up when you would expect them to go down. When money moves out of the stock market, typically it would move towards Treasuries, the safest investment on the planet, which in turn would reduce yields. But in fact, Treasury yields were going up which suggests that not only was money moving out of US stock, but it was also moving out of US Treasuries. In short, foreign capital fleeing the US. My understanding was that bond yields in Europe were dropping suggesting at least some capital was landing there.

Was there a state actor pulling the strings, or multiple state actors working together to send a message to Trump that they are not without weapons and neither Trump nor the US is invulnerable. That would not surprise me. To the degree it was somewhat coordinated, it presumably would need to be state actors in order to mobilize enough volume to make a difference.

Just my 2 cents.
Believe Japan was pulling out of treasuries.
 
WAIT!!!!!

What about winning? How are we gonna bring manufacturing jobs back now? Why is trump letting all these countries take advantage of us? Why did trump give up on trying to rebalance global trade? Why is he such a quitter? Now that trump has paused the tariffs, Canada can just keep shipping fentanyl over the border. How are we gonna pay for those text cuts for billionaires if we're not bringing in all these trillions from tariffs?
We've already taken in a bazillion trillion in revenue from tariffs...don't be greedy
 

After Tariff Climbdown, World Asks: Is it Method or Madness?​

Governments that held back in reaction to Trump’s tariffs see pause in the trade war as vindication​


GIFT LINK 🎁 🔗 —> https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/a...d0?st=xKaXmW&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink

“… After slapping import levies on specific sectors and regions, Trump unveiled global tariffs—some of them punishingly high—on almost all countries on April 2, which he dubbed “liberation day.” The move caused havoc on global markets, not just pushing down stock prices but also sparking a selloff in U.S. treasuries in a development that surprised and worried analysts.

Government borrowing costs, which also surged violently outside the U.S., retreated late Wednesday and into Thursday, but they remained elevated on concerns that the levies will remain in effect and lead to higher inflation. …”
 

After Tariff Climbdown, World Asks: Is it Method or Madness?​

Governments that held back in reaction to Trump’s tariffs see pause in the trade war as vindication​


GIFT LINK 🎁 🔗 —> https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/a...d0?st=xKaXmW&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink

“… After slapping import levies on specific sectors and regions, Trump unveiled global tariffs—some of them punishingly high—on almost all countries on April 2, which he dubbed “liberation day.” The move caused havoc on global markets, not just pushing down stock prices but also sparking a selloff in U.S. treasuries in a development that surprised and worried analysts.

Government borrowing costs, which also surged violently outside the U.S., retreated late Wednesday and into Thursday, but they remained elevated on concerns that the levies will remain in effect and lead to higher inflation. …”
When has it ever actually been method?
 
“Rewind a bit. While Trump was gearing up his trade war machine, Carney, Canada’s Prime Minister, wasn’t just sitting in Ottawa twiddling his thumbs. He’d been quietly increasing Canada’s holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds—over $350 billion worth by early 2025, part of the $8.53 trillion foreign countries hold in U.S. debt. On the surface, it looked like a safe play, a hedge against economic chaos. But it wasn’t just defense. It was a loaded gun.”

“Carney didn’t stop there. He took his case to Europe. Not for photo ops, but for closed-door meetings with the EU’s heavy hitters—Germany, France, the Netherlands. Japan was in the room too, listening closely. The pitch was simple: if Trump went too far with tariffs, Canada wouldn’t just retaliate with duties on American cars or steel. It would start offloading those Treasury bonds. Not a fire sale—nothing so crude. A slow, steady bleed. A signal to the markets that the U.S. dollar’s perch wasn’t so secure.”
- D. Blundell
 
  • What Are Treasury Bonds?
    • They’re IOUs the U.S. government issues to borrow money.
    • Countries, banks, and investors buy them, lending cash to the U.S.
    • The U.S. promises to pay back the loan with interest over time (e.g., 10 years).
  • Who Owns Them?
    • Foreign countries hold $8.5 trillion of U.S. debt (as of 2025).
    • Big players: Japan ($1 trillion+), Canada ($350 billion), EU nations ($1.5 trillion combined).
    • They buy bonds to park money safely and earn steady interest.
  • How Do They Affect the U.S.?
    • The U.S. uses this borrowed cash to fund everything—military, Social Security, tax cuts.
    • Cheap borrowing keeps the economy humming; the government spends more than it collects in taxes.
  • What Happens in a Coordinated Sell-Off?
    • If countries like Canada, Japan, and the EU start selling bonds together (even slowly):
      • Flood of Bonds: Too many bonds hit the market at once.
      • Prices Drop: More supply than demand pushes bond prices down.
      • Interest Rates Spike: When bond prices fall, yields (interest rates) rise to attract buyers.
  • Why Does This Hurt the U.S.?
    • Borrowing Gets Expensive: Higher interest rates mean the U.S. pays more to borrow.
    • Debt Snowballs: The U.S. owes $34 trillion already; pricier loans make it harder to manage.
    • Dollar Weakens: Selling bonds means dumping dollars, so the currency’s value drops.
 
  • What Are Treasury Bonds?
    • They’re IOUs the U.S. government issues to borrow money.
    • Countries, banks, and investors buy them, lending cash to the U.S.
    • The U.S. promises to pay back the loan with interest over time (e.g., 10 years).
  • Who Owns Them?
    • Foreign countries hold $8.5 trillion of U.S. debt (as of 2025).
    • Big players: Japan ($1 trillion+), Canada ($350 billion), EU nations ($1.5 trillion combined).
    • They buy bonds to park money safely and earn steady interest.
  • How Do They Affect the U.S.?
    • The U.S. uses this borrowed cash to fund everything—military, Social Security, tax cuts.
    • Cheap borrowing keeps the economy humming; the government spends more than it collects in taxes.
  • What Happens in a Coordinated Sell-Off?
    • If countries like Canada, Japan, and the EU start selling bonds together (even slowly):
      • Flood of Bonds: Too many bonds hit the market at once.
      • Prices Drop: More supply than demand pushes bond prices down.
      • Interest Rates Spike: When bond prices fall, yields (interest rates) rise to attract buyers.
  • Why Does This Hurt the U.S.?
    • Borrowing Gets Expensive: Higher interest rates mean the U.S. pays more to borrow.
    • Debt Snowballs: The U.S. owes $34 trillion already; pricier loans make it harder to manage.
    • Dollar Weakens: Selling bonds means dumping dollars, so the currency’s value drops.
I guarantee you Trump band of merry idiots never even considered this possibility.
The MAGAs claiming Trump is playing “4D Chess,” have it backwards.
 
Yep, was some of his interview I saw where he explained it was Japan pulling out of treasuries. If I remember correctly, it was while the WH was trying to “make a deal” with Japan.
Japan has been recalibrating their U.S. Treasuries holdings for months and several prior similar claims of Japan wholesale dumping Treasuries has been debunked already earlier this year — I say that wondering about the accuracy of this report this time since very similar claims have been wrong recently.

March:


“… In November 2024, a report from Bloombergfound that after the U.S. presidential election, Japanese investors did actually sell large amounts of U.S. Treasurys, one of the most stable financial assets in existence. However, the trend had reversed by January 2025.

A March 2025 report from Barron's confirmed that since the election, foreign countries had sold billions in long-term Treasurys. However, that report stated Japan actually bought bonds in January 2025 (the most recent month of data available), not sold them. That finding is supported by data from the U.S. Treasury Department, which published preliminary data on foreign Treasury bond holdings on Feb. 28, 2025. …”

Also this:

IMG_6264.jpeg


“Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato on Wednesday ruled out using the country's U.S. Treasury holdings as a bargaining tool against President Donald Trump's decision to slap tariffs against imports from Japan.

"We manage our U.S. Treasury holdings from the standpoint of preparing for in case we need to conduct exchange-rate intervention in the future," not from the standpoint of bilateral diplomacy, Kato told parliament. …”
 
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