Tariffs Catch-All

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nycfan said:

After Tariff Climbdown, World Asks: Is it Method or Madness?​

Governments that held back in reaction to Trump’s tariffs see pause in the trade war as vindication​


GIFT LINK 🎁 🔗 —> https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/a...d0?st=xKaXmW&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink

“… After slapping import levies on specific sectors and regions, Trump unveiled global tariffs—some of them punishingly high—on almost all countries on April 2, which he dubbed “liberation day.” The move caused havoc on global markets, not just pushing down stock prices but also sparking a selloff in U.S. treasuries in a development that surprised and worried analysts.

Government borrowing costs, which also surged violently outside the U.S., retreated late Wednesday and into Thursday, but they remained elevated on concerns that the levies will remain in effect and lead to higher inflation. …”
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When has it ever actually been method?
 
“Rewind a bit. While Trump was gearing up his trade war machine, Carney, Canada’s Prime Minister, wasn’t just sitting in Ottawa twiddling his thumbs. He’d been quietly increasing Canada’s holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds—over $350 billion worth by early 2025, part of the $8.53 trillion foreign countries hold in U.S. debt. On the surface, it looked like a safe play, a hedge against economic chaos. But it wasn’t just defense. It was a loaded gun.”

“Carney didn’t stop there. He took his case to Europe. Not for photo ops, but for closed-door meetings with the EU’s heavy hitters—Germany, France, the Netherlands. Japan was in the room too, listening closely. The pitch was simple: if Trump went too far with tariffs, Canada wouldn’t just retaliate with duties on American cars or steel. It would start offloading those Treasury bonds. Not a fire sale—nothing so crude. A slow, steady bleed. A signal to the markets that the U.S. dollar’s perch wasn’t so secure.”
- D. Blundell
 
  • What Are Treasury Bonds?
    • They’re IOUs the U.S. government issues to borrow money.
    • Countries, banks, and investors buy them, lending cash to the U.S.
    • The U.S. promises to pay back the loan with interest over time (e.g., 10 years).
  • Who Owns Them?
    • Foreign countries hold $8.5 trillion of U.S. debt (as of 2025).
    • Big players: Japan ($1 trillion+), Canada ($350 billion), EU nations ($1.5 trillion combined).
    • They buy bonds to park money safely and earn steady interest.
  • How Do They Affect the U.S.?
    • The U.S. uses this borrowed cash to fund everything—military, Social Security, tax cuts.
    • Cheap borrowing keeps the economy humming; the government spends more than it collects in taxes.
  • What Happens in a Coordinated Sell-Off?
    • If countries like Canada, Japan, and the EU start selling bonds together (even slowly):
      • Flood of Bonds: Too many bonds hit the market at once.
      • Prices Drop: More supply than demand pushes bond prices down.
      • Interest Rates Spike: When bond prices fall, yields (interest rates) rise to attract buyers.
  • Why Does This Hurt the U.S.?
    • Borrowing Gets Expensive: Higher interest rates mean the U.S. pays more to borrow.
    • Debt Snowballs: The U.S. owes $34 trillion already; pricier loans make it harder to manage.
    • Dollar Weakens: Selling bonds means dumping dollars, so the currency’s value drops.
 
Centerpiece said:
  • What Are Treasury Bonds?
    • They’re IOUs the U.S. government issues to borrow money.
    • Countries, banks, and investors buy them, lending cash to the U.S.
    • The U.S. promises to pay back the loan with interest over time (e.g., 10 years).
  • Who Owns Them?
    • Foreign countries hold $8.5 trillion of U.S. debt (as of 2025).
    • Big players: Japan ($1 trillion+), Canada ($350 billion), EU nations ($1.5 trillion combined).
    • They buy bonds to park money safely and earn steady interest.
  • How Do They Affect the U.S.?
    • The U.S. uses this borrowed cash to fund everything—military, Social Security, tax cuts.
    • Cheap borrowing keeps the economy humming; the government spends more than it collects in taxes.
  • What Happens in a Coordinated Sell-Off?
    • If countries like Canada, Japan, and the EU start selling bonds together (even slowly):
      • Flood of Bonds: Too many bonds hit the market at once.
      • Prices Drop: More supply than demand pushes bond prices down.
      • Interest Rates Spike: When bond prices fall, yields (interest rates) rise to attract buyers.
  • Why Does This Hurt the U.S.?
    • Borrowing Gets Expensive: Higher interest rates mean the U.S. pays more to borrow.
    • Debt Snowballs: The U.S. owes $34 trillion already; pricier loans make it harder to manage.
    • Dollar Weakens: Selling bonds means dumping dollars, so the currency’s value drops.
Click to expand...
I guarantee you Trump band of merry idiots never even considered this possibility.
The MAGAs claiming Trump is playing “4D Chess,” have it backwards.
 
DiehardHeelFan said:
Yep, was some of his interview I saw where he explained it was Japan pulling out of treasuries. If I remember correctly, it was while the WH was trying to “make a deal” with Japan.
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Japan has been recalibrating their U.S. Treasuries holdings for months and several prior similar claims of Japan wholesale dumping Treasuries has been debunked already earlier this year — I say that wondering about the accuracy of this report this time since very similar claims have been wrong recently.

March:

www.snopes.com

No evidence behind video claim Japan offloading billions in US Treasurys

President Donald Trump's tariff threats have created uncertainty over the state of the American economy.
www.snopes.com www.snopes.com

“… In November 2024, a report from Bloombergfound that after the U.S. presidential election, Japanese investors did actually sell large amounts of U.S. Treasurys, one of the most stable financial assets in existence. However, the trend had reversed by January 2025.

A March 2025 report from Barron's confirmed that since the election, foreign countries had sold billions in long-term Treasurys. However, that report stated Japan actually bought bonds in January 2025 (the most recent month of data available), not sold them. That finding is supported by data from the U.S. Treasury Department, which published preliminary data on foreign Treasury bond holdings on Feb. 28, 2025. …”

Also this:

IMG_6264.jpeg


“Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato on Wednesday ruled out using the country's U.S. Treasury holdings as a bargaining tool against President Donald Trump's decision to slap tariffs against imports from Japan.

"We manage our U.S. Treasury holdings from the standpoint of preparing for in case we need to conduct exchange-rate intervention in the future," not from the standpoint of bilateral diplomacy, Kato told parliament. …”
 
1moretimeagain said:
I feel a little bad for people in hollowed out towns that genuinely believed Trump was bringing their factories back, only to have him cater to the elites once again.
Click to expand...

As someone who lives in a super rural area... I don't feel sorry for any of them. They're all pig headed idiots. You can rub their nose all in the truth and nothing will smell as sweet to them as Donald Trump's pasty orange ass.
 

Trump’s Trade Math Ignores a Major Export: American Services​

Trade wars heighten overseas risk for U.S. companies. ‘When you generate bad will, it’s harder to sell stuff.’​


🎁 🔗 —> https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/u...2b?st=LSD5hk&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink

“While the U.S. buys more goods from abroad than it sells, the opposite is true for services, which include everything from streaming subscriptions to financial advice. Trump left these service exports out of his tariff math, but they are being pulled into his trade wars.

… Countries can’t easily impose tariffs on services, but they can tax, fine or even ban U.S. companies. The European Union has floated going after big U.S. tech companies in response to Trump’s sweeping tariff threats. Trump also put U.S. service exports at risk by irking foreign consumers, many of whom might choose to avoid U.S. banks, asset managers and other firms. An economic slowdown that curbs demand as markets grapple with the president’s extreme trade makeover won’t help either.

… For decades, the U.S. and the rest of the world had a deal: Other countries sent cars, phones, clothes and food to the U.S., and in return they got bonds, software and management consultants.

As the U.S. imported more goods from abroad and domestic factories closed, its goods trade deficitswelled to a record $1.21 trillion by 2024. At the same time, the U.S. services trade surplus grew to $295 billion last year, up from $77 billion in 2000. This is a stark reversal from the mid-20th century, when the U.S. was a manufacturing giant and had a goods export surplus, but had a services trade deficit.

Services gradually came to dominate the U.S. economy as the country grew wealthier. It was no longer Ford Motor and General Motors that mattered most, but companies such as Microsoft, Alphabet and JPMorgan Chase. Software and financial products became major U.S. exports. For some of the biggest services firms, foreign markets now matter more than the U.S. …”
 
nycfan said:

Trump’s Trade Math Ignores a Major Export: American Services​

Trade wars heighten overseas risk for U.S. companies. ‘When you generate bad will, it’s harder to sell stuff.’​


🎁 🔗 —> https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/u...2b?st=LSD5hk&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink

“While the U.S. buys more goods from abroad than it sells, the opposite is true for services, which include everything from streaming subscriptions to financial advice. Trump left these service exports out of his tariff math, but they are being pulled into his trade wars.

… Countries can’t easily impose tariffs on services, but they can tax, fine or even ban U.S. companies. The European Union has floated going after big U.S. tech companies in response to Trump’s sweeping tariff threats. Trump also put U.S. service exports at risk by irking foreign consumers, many of whom might choose to avoid U.S. banks, asset managers and other firms. An economic slowdown that curbs demand as markets grapple with the president’s extreme trade makeover won’t help either.

… For decades, the U.S. and the rest of the world had a deal: Other countries sent cars, phones, clothes and food to the U.S., and in return they got bonds, software and management consultants.

As the U.S. imported more goods from abroad and domestic factories closed, its goods trade deficitswelled to a record $1.21 trillion by 2024. At the same time, the U.S. services trade surplus grew to $295 billion last year, up from $77 billion in 2000. This is a stark reversal from the mid-20th century, when the U.S. was a manufacturing giant and had a goods export surplus, but had a services trade deficit.

Services gradually came to dominate the U.S. economy as the country grew wealthier. It was no longer Ford Motor and General Motors that mattered most, but companies such as Microsoft, Alphabet and JPMorgan Chase. Software and financial products became major U.S. exports. For some of the biggest services firms, foreign markets now matter more than the U.S. …”
Click to expand...
IMG_6267.jpeg

IMG_6269.jpeg


IMG_6268.jpegIMG_6270.jpeg
 
nycfan said:

Trump’s Trade Math Ignores a Major Export: American Services​

Trade wars heighten overseas risk for U.S. companies. ‘When you generate bad will, it’s harder to sell stuff.’​


🎁 🔗 —> https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/u...2b?st=LSD5hk&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink

“While the U.S. buys more goods from abroad than it sells, the opposite is true for services, which include everything from streaming subscriptions to financial advice. Trump left these service exports out of his tariff math, but they are being pulled into his trade wars.

… Countries can’t easily impose tariffs on services, but they can tax, fine or even ban U.S. companies. The European Union has floated going after big U.S. tech companies in response to Trump’s sweeping tariff threats. Trump also put U.S. service exports at risk by irking foreign consumers, many of whom might choose to avoid U.S. banks, asset managers and other firms. An economic slowdown that curbs demand as markets grapple with the president’s extreme trade makeover won’t help either.

… For decades, the U.S. and the rest of the world had a deal: Other countries sent cars, phones, clothes and food to the U.S., and in return they got bonds, software and management consultants.

As the U.S. imported more goods from abroad and domestic factories closed, its goods trade deficitswelled to a record $1.21 trillion by 2024. At the same time, the U.S. services trade surplus grew to $295 billion last year, up from $77 billion in 2000. This is a stark reversal from the mid-20th century, when the U.S. was a manufacturing giant and had a goods export surplus, but had a services trade deficit.

Services gradually came to dominate the U.S. economy as the country grew wealthier. It was no longer Ford Motor and General Motors that mattered most, but companies such as Microsoft, Alphabet and JPMorgan Chase. Software and financial products became major U.S. exports. For some of the biggest services firms, foreign markets now matter more than the U.S. …”
Click to expand...
This really worries me.

Until he's gone, who will trust us?
 
gtyellowjacket said:
Glad the tariffs got cancelled. Now the question is how he's going to pay for extending his tax cuts without tariff revenue. My guess is those die too.
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The tariffs did NOT get cancelled. They were lowered to 10% for most, still unnamed countries. So they were dropped to 10% rather than the ridiculously high made up bogus "reciprocal" Tariffs on Trump's idiot chart.

Plus, Elon promised $5K checks to the MAGAts from the trillions we would supposedly collect. Elon will be gone, but they can use his autopen, and he can't let those checks bounce.

** There will be no checks, but let the board MAGAts keep living in Fox fantasy land.
 
I have a question: considering it seems Wall Street was unprepared for Trump's volatility, it makes me wonder about something Warren Buffett has said that I have never fully understood. He likes to say that when the tide goes out, you get to see who's been "skinny dipping".

I know Buffett claims he doesn't like to gamble. Accepting investment risk is another thing. So when the tide goes out, you get to see who was gambling and who was investing?

Thanks.
 
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