Tariffs Catch-All

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BlueSmoke said:
I have a question: considering it seems Wall Street was unprepared for Trump's volatility, it makes me wonder about something Warren Buffett has said that I have never fully understood. He likes to say that when the tide goes out, you get to see who's been "skinny dipping".

I know Buffett claims he doesn't like to gamble. Accepting investment risk is another thing. So when the tide goes out, you get to see who was gambling and who was investing?

Thanks.
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Buffett is all about fundamentals. He's not always right, but he's pretty much always the most dispassionate. Kind of like the Moneyball of financiers. What he's saying there is that bad times show who is playing the game with a strategy and who is playing it recklessly. Unfortunately, the man in charge of our entire economy is one of the most reckless, undisciplined people in the history of the modern financial world. But that doesn't change Buffett's point. And it explains a lot of why he has so much cash right now.
 
HintonJamesHeel said:
NAFTA took 2 years. The fact that the administration is trying to sell the idea they can redo global trade in 90 days is insulting to anyone with a brain.
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My expectation is for a flurry of trade deals to be announced over the coming weeks. They will be claimed as big victories, but won’t actually be much of a change from the existing arrangements.

The US folded less than a week after the tariff announcement and mere hours after the tariffs took effect, forfeiting much of the leverage we might have had.
 
nycfan said:
The EU has been talking tough but taking a risk-averse approach — their countermeasures were scheduled to go into effect in parts in May and December to create runway to avoid implementing them altogether.
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Trump has been talking tough but taking a high risk approach.
I’ll take EU for $1000 Ken…
 
MAGAs count “countries are calling to negotiate” as some giant victory. All Trump has to do to satisfy his base is claim victory and move on.
Gas prices are coming down. Rates will come down if he just stops with the tariff nonsense. Inflation is coming down.
Trump should just announce (make up) you made a bunch of great deals so tariffs are cancelled, watch the economy boom, and all your acolytes will give Trump credit for it.
 
1moretimeagain said:
My expectation is for a flurry of trade deals to be announced over the coming weeks. They will be claimed as big victories, but won’t actually be much of a change from the existing arrangements.

The US folded less than a week after the tariff announcement and mere hours after the tariffs took effect, forfeiting much of the leverage we might have had.
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Well, the stock markets sure forfeited much, thats for sure.
 
BlueSmoke said:
I have a question: considering it seems Wall Street was unprepared for Trump's volatility, it makes me wonder about something Warren Buffett has said that I have never fully understood. He likes to say that when the tide goes out, you get to see who's been "skinny dipping".

I know Buffett claims he doesn't like to gamble. Accepting investment risk is another thing. So when the tide goes out, you get to see who was gambling and who was investing?

Thanks.
Click to expand...

He is saying that only when times get tough, do the true risks of investing get exposed.

Example: Many investors will state that their risk profile is high. They will even mark on questionnaires that they are willing to accept potential 20%+ losses in any given year in order to reach their maximum long term return. Yet most of those same people panic and want to sell when the market is down 20%. Thus they get sub optimal returns.

The schizophrenic fool Jim Cramer is an example of this. Never listen to that clown. A week ago, he told his viewers, "If you need money in the next 5 years, you should get out of the market completely, right now." That is pretty much everyone 60 and above plus others.

Yet last night, less than a week later, he was back to banging his buy buy buy, and bull roaring buttons. Herd mentality huckster. He and the ditz Suze Orman said the same thing in mid 2008. And they sell millions of books, newsletters and TV shows. Boo-ya Skidaddy, ca-ching $$$$.
 
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1moretimeagain said:
My expectation is for a flurry of trade deals to be announced over the coming weeks. They will be claimed as big victories, but won’t actually be much of a change from the existing arrangements.

The US folded less than a week after the tariff announcement and mere hours after the tariffs took effect, forfeiting much of the leverage we might have had.
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They might announce deals but they won’t have shit figured out.

The last week has just created churn and uncertainty. It’s a huge mistake.
 
The view from the frozen tundra up North:
“Let’s talk about Trump’s so-called “threats.” Lutnick’s warning was supposed to scare Canada into submission, but it’s nothing more than a fake tough guy’s way of begging for relief from the trade war they started. Yesterday, we learned that Trump is already backtracking on his tariff plans, likely because the U.S. economy can’t handle the blowback from Canada’s countermeasures. The American auto sector is reeling, energy prices are spiking, and their tech industry is scrambling to find new sources for critical minerals. Trump thought he could bully Canada into submission, but instead, he’s the one feeling the heat.”
 
Mulberry Heel said:
You'd think that if 75 countries (or any countries, really) had reached out then Trump, given his passion for publicity and bragging, would shout the names of those countries from the rooftops. It's almost like his claim that 75 countries have reached out is fake and that no one is buckling under his demands. Nah, surely Dear Leader and his minions couldn't be lying through their teeth. It's not like they've ever lied about anything else, amiright?
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He would of had a giant oversized chart made up and on display asap if it was true. He loves to supply the cult members with something visual they can share on their social media pages and show off all the "winning" Trump has accomplished.
 
So Deals-trade war offf -Hey we won blah balh
What about all the critical peices of Govt DOGE has ruined
What about a Budget that passes at all-and that doesn't wreck Medicaid and other programs
and what about the debt.............
Oh yea _great job on Ukraine
 
gtyellowjacket said:
Glad the tariffs got cancelled. Now the question is how he's going to pay for extending his tax cuts without tariff revenue. My guess is those die too.
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The tax cuts won't die - that's the whole premise of his widespread GOP support. They'll either cave on baseline (i.e. bullshit) budgeting or conjure up some magical thinking on medicaid savings. They may up the top tax rate on highest earners, but that will be superficial.

But make no mistake, the tax cuts will largely be extended or the entire coalition falls apart.
 
Huh? said:
The tax cuts won't die - that's the whole premise of his widespread GOP support. They'll either cave on baseline (i.e. bullshit) budgeting or conjure up some magical thinking on medicaid savings. They may up the top tax rate on highest earners, but that will be superficial.

But make no mistake, the tax cuts will largely be extended or the entire coalition falls apart.
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Maybe, but there are plenty of people on the Republican side that are also concerned with the deficit. But if history is an indication, you're absolutely right.
 
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wmheel1287 said:
I've seen no evidence that any significant number of Republicans currently in office at the federal level are actually concerned AT ALL with the deficit.
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Is there someone actually arguing that Republicans still care at all about the deficit? HAHAHAHA. For modern Republicans claiming that they want to cut the deficit and want a "balanced budget" is nothing more than an empty campaign slogan. They spend money like drunken sailors whenever they're in offce, and will continue to do so irregardless of DOGE or Elon's cutting of jobs and agencies to the bone. Hell, paying off farmers to keep them afloat during Trump's trade wars will likely cost us more than any savings we see from DOGE.
 
gtyellowjacket said:
Maybe, but there are plenty of people on the Republican side that are also concerned with the deficit. But if history is an indication, you're absolutely right.
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The next time I hear a Republican lawmaker acknowledge that tax cuts increase the deficit will be the first. When it comes to deficits Republicans talk exclusively about spending. And it's been that way for decades.

They're just going to lie and say the tax cuts don't cost anything because they're continuing the current rate.
 
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