Tariffs Catch-All

  • Thread starter Thread starter BubbaOtis
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nycfan said:
“… But the real credit, Mr. Trump’s advisers admit privately, should go to the bond markets. Mr. Trump’s decision was driven by fear that his tariffs gamble could quickly turn into a financial crisis. And unlike the two previous crashes of the past 20 years — the global financial crisis of 2008 and the pandemic of 2020 — this crisis would have been directly attributable to only one man. …
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I don't think it was the stock market that changed the rhetoric out of the orange house, those drops were expected and baked in. It absolutely was the bond market that changed the tone. Overnight, Treasury yields were going up when you would expect them to go down. When money moves out of the stock market, typically it would move towards Treasuries, the safest investment on the planet, which in turn would reduce yields. But in fact, Treasury yields were going up which suggests that not only was money moving out of US stock, but it was also moving out of US Treasuries. In short, foreign capital fleeing the US. My understanding was that bond yields in Europe were dropping suggesting at least some capital was landing there.

Was there a state actor pulling the strings, or multiple state actors working together to send a message to Trump that they are not without weapons and neither Trump nor the US is invulnerable. That would not surprise me. To the degree it was somewhat coordinated, it presumably would need to be state actors in order to mobilize enough volume to make a difference.

Just my 2 cents.
 
dcphx said:
I don't think it was the stock market that changed the rhetoric out of the orange house, those drops were expected and baked in. It absolutely was the bond market that changed the tone. Overnight, Treasury yields were going up when you would expect them to go down. When money moves out of the stock market, typically it would move towards Treasuries, the safest investment on the planet, which in turn would reduce yields. But in fact, Treasury yields were going up which suggests that not only was money moving out of US stock, but it was also moving out of US Treasuries. In short, foreign capital fleeing the US. My understanding was that bond yields in Europe were dropping suggesting at least some capital was landing there.

Was there a state actor pulling the strings, or multiple state actors working together to send a message to Trump that they are not without weapons and neither Trump nor the US is invulnerable. That would not surprise me. To the degree it was somewhat coordinated, it presumably would need to be state actors in order to mobilize enough volume to make a difference.

Just my 2 cents.
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1moretimeagain said:
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"Trump took the win." LOL. So many countries wanting to deal, yet none of them have been named, even by a WH notorious for naming names and saying anything that will get Dear Leader good publicity. He and those around him panicked and backed down, period. And if our tariffs on China start causing real pain to his base then he'll back off those as well while claiming victory, and right-wingers like this guy will claim the same. And his base will buy it hook, line, and sinker.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
"Trump took the win." LOL. So many countries wanting to deal, yet none of them have been named, even by a WH notorious for naming names and saying anything that will get Dear Leader good publicity. He and those around him panicked and backed down, period. And if our tariffs on China start causing real pain to his base then he'll back off those as well while claiming victory, and right-wingers like this guy will claim the same. And his base will buy it hook, line, and sinker.
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Shopping at Walmart is gonna suck.
 
dcphx said:
I don't think it was the stock market that changed the rhetoric out of the orange house, those drops were expected and baked in. It absolutely was the bond market that changed the tone. Overnight, Treasury yields were going up when you would expect them to go down. When money moves out of the stock market, typically it would move towards Treasuries, the safest investment on the planet, which in turn would reduce yields. But in fact, Treasury yields were going up which suggests that not only was money moving out of US stock, but it was also moving out of US Treasuries. In short, foreign capital fleeing the US. My understanding was that bond yields in Europe were dropping suggesting at least some capital was landing there.

Was there a state actor pulling the strings, or multiple state actors working together to send a message to Trump that they are not without weapons and neither Trump nor the US is invulnerable. That would not surprise me. To the degree it was somewhat coordinated, it presumably would need to be state actors in order to mobilize enough volume to make a difference.

Just my 2 cents.
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Believe Japan was pulling out of treasuries.
 
BillOfRights said:
WAIT!!!!!

What about winning? How are we gonna bring manufacturing jobs back now? Why is trump letting all these countries take advantage of us? Why did trump give up on trying to rebalance global trade? Why is he such a quitter? Now that trump has paused the tariffs, Canada can just keep shipping fentanyl over the border. How are we gonna pay for those text cuts for billionaires if we're not bringing in all these trillions from tariffs?
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We've already taken in a bazillion trillion in revenue from tariffs...don't be greedy
 

After Tariff Climbdown, World Asks: Is it Method or Madness?​

Governments that held back in reaction to Trump’s tariffs see pause in the trade war as vindication​


GIFT LINK 🎁 🔗 —> https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/a...d0?st=xKaXmW&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink

“… After slapping import levies on specific sectors and regions, Trump unveiled global tariffs—some of them punishingly high—on almost all countries on April 2, which he dubbed “liberation day.” The move caused havoc on global markets, not just pushing down stock prices but also sparking a selloff in U.S. treasuries in a development that surprised and worried analysts.

Government borrowing costs, which also surged violently outside the U.S., retreated late Wednesday and into Thursday, but they remained elevated on concerns that the levies will remain in effect and lead to higher inflation. …”
 
nycfan said:

After Tariff Climbdown, World Asks: Is it Method or Madness?​

Governments that held back in reaction to Trump’s tariffs see pause in the trade war as vindication​


GIFT LINK 🎁 🔗 —> https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/a...d0?st=xKaXmW&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink

“… After slapping import levies on specific sectors and regions, Trump unveiled global tariffs—some of them punishingly high—on almost all countries on April 2, which he dubbed “liberation day.” The move caused havoc on global markets, not just pushing down stock prices but also sparking a selloff in U.S. treasuries in a development that surprised and worried analysts.

Government borrowing costs, which also surged violently outside the U.S., retreated late Wednesday and into Thursday, but they remained elevated on concerns that the levies will remain in effect and lead to higher inflation. …”
Click to expand...
When has it ever actually been method?
 
“Rewind a bit. While Trump was gearing up his trade war machine, Carney, Canada’s Prime Minister, wasn’t just sitting in Ottawa twiddling his thumbs. He’d been quietly increasing Canada’s holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds—over $350 billion worth by early 2025, part of the $8.53 trillion foreign countries hold in U.S. debt. On the surface, it looked like a safe play, a hedge against economic chaos. But it wasn’t just defense. It was a loaded gun.”

“Carney didn’t stop there. He took his case to Europe. Not for photo ops, but for closed-door meetings with the EU’s heavy hitters—Germany, France, the Netherlands. Japan was in the room too, listening closely. The pitch was simple: if Trump went too far with tariffs, Canada wouldn’t just retaliate with duties on American cars or steel. It would start offloading those Treasury bonds. Not a fire sale—nothing so crude. A slow, steady bleed. A signal to the markets that the U.S. dollar’s perch wasn’t so secure.”
- D. Blundell
 
  • What Are Treasury Bonds?
    • They’re IOUs the U.S. government issues to borrow money.
    • Countries, banks, and investors buy them, lending cash to the U.S.
    • The U.S. promises to pay back the loan with interest over time (e.g., 10 years).
  • Who Owns Them?
    • Foreign countries hold $8.5 trillion of U.S. debt (as of 2025).
    • Big players: Japan ($1 trillion+), Canada ($350 billion), EU nations ($1.5 trillion combined).
    • They buy bonds to park money safely and earn steady interest.
  • How Do They Affect the U.S.?
    • The U.S. uses this borrowed cash to fund everything—military, Social Security, tax cuts.
    • Cheap borrowing keeps the economy humming; the government spends more than it collects in taxes.
  • What Happens in a Coordinated Sell-Off?
    • If countries like Canada, Japan, and the EU start selling bonds together (even slowly):
      • Flood of Bonds: Too many bonds hit the market at once.
      • Prices Drop: More supply than demand pushes bond prices down.
      • Interest Rates Spike: When bond prices fall, yields (interest rates) rise to attract buyers.
  • Why Does This Hurt the U.S.?
    • Borrowing Gets Expensive: Higher interest rates mean the U.S. pays more to borrow.
    • Debt Snowballs: The U.S. owes $34 trillion already; pricier loans make it harder to manage.
    • Dollar Weakens: Selling bonds means dumping dollars, so the currency’s value drops.
 
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