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I'm not sure China has as much "hunkering-down potential" as you do. My understanding is that China cannot operate (ie feed their population) without substantial imports of both fuel and food including fertilizer. China can be cut off from important supplies via sanctions and blockade far outside the short operating range of the Chinese Navy. However, that would require cooperation from our many allies and trading partners that Trump just told to go screw. There is also the very real probability that such an act could quickly turn into a shooting war.
I've long felt that China isn't built to wage military war, they wage war via business and economics. In that light, January 20th, 2025 might as well have been September 1, 1939.
And don't worry about retirement nyc, full recovery long before you retire. Hell, we made it out of the Great Recession, worst economy and markets of our lifetimes. Unless you were 100% in growth stocks (and diversified), you were back to even in 2 years or less. Then it took off like a rocket.
From what I understand, Chinese state media have been prepping the country for economic war against the US, and so the populace (at least those who consume news media) look at it as a badge of honor to sacrifice for the good of the country."Hunkering-down potential". I seem to recall that during the covid lockdowns, they had tremendous hunkering down stamina. Under Xi, it seems it takes a huge amount of pressure for him to do a U-turn.
Ordinarily, it would be expected to somewhat weaken the Euro against the US Dollar and dampen interest in the EU bonds due to assumed downward pressure on those yields, increasing the relative strength of the dollar and driving more investors to buy US Treasuries, but things are so out of kilter at the moment and this rate cut was so widely anticipated/baked into expectations anyway, who knows?I see the EU central bank is cutting interest rates. So how will that affect our bond market since that seems to be a point of major concern?
Trump is going about it in a stupid way but I will give him some credit in that we should have never allowed ourselves to be so reliant on China for these things.![]()
The Consequences of China’s New Rare Earths Export Restrictions
China has imposed export restrictions on seven rare earth elements and magnets in retaliation for new U.S. tariffs. These materials are vital to defense technologies, but the United States is entirely dependent on China for their supply.www.csis.org
Seems to me the better strategy would have been a Marshall Plan-like initiative in Africa, where these rare earth minerals are in abundance. We didn't do that, though (I can't imagine why), and we've now essentially ceded Africa to China via its Belt and Road Project. I don't blame Africa for jumping on China's capital, but it puts the entire continent in the hands of a modern day King Leopold, when we could have been working closely with them for our mutual benefit.Trump is going about it in a stupid way but I will give him some credit in that we should have never allowed ourselves to be so reliant on China for these things.
The solution would be subsidies to build up US capacity for security purposes or at least create a reserve.
The dumbest move is what Trump is doing.
That too but it is my understanding that we have plenty of them just not the mining and infrastructure to do so. There is also the environmental impact.Seems to me the better strategy would have been a Marshall Plan-like initiative in Africa, where these rare earth minerals are in abundance. We didn't do that, though (I can't imagine why), and we've now essentially ceded Africa to China via its Belt and Road Project. I don't blame Africa for jumping on China's capital, but it puts the entire continent in the hands of a modern day King Leopold, when we could have been working closely with them for our mutual benefit.
No, you're right, and I was too broad and sarcastic with my initial post. One of the reasons this whole China thing is overblown is because of how many rare earth minerals we get from Africa rather than China. My son is doing a project on this right now and it astonished me how reliant we are on Africa. But my takeaway from that was:That too but it is my understanding that we have plenty of them just not the mining and infrastructure to do so. There is also the environmental impact.
All it takes for hope to spring eternal for investors again:
Although