Tariffs Catch-All

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www.abc15.com

'It could break us': Valley farmer says Chinese tariffs have crushed the alfalfa export market

Alfalfa hay is mainly used as feed for cattle and is big business in Arizona, with Arizona farms exporting over $100 million of alfalfa overseas a year.
www.abc15.com www.abc15.com
In the Harquahala Valley, hay fields stretch as far as the eye can see.

Alfalfa hay is mainly used as feed for cattle and is big business in Arizona, with Arizona farms exporting over $100 million of alfalfa overseas a year.

Shannon Schulz has been farming in the Harquahala Valley for decades.

"There's no better way to raise a family than on the farm," Schulz said.

Schulz is unique in the Valley, as he not only harvests his alfalfa but also is part of the export process overseas. His main customers are countries in the Middle East, and China.

“Usually, this warehouse is full of hay. It’s not right now because business is just slow," Schulz said.

Business is slow because Chinese dairy farms have all but stopped buying U.S. alfalfa to feed their cattle after the country imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports. China makes up about half of Arizona's alfalfa export market.

“With the current tariffs in place, which is in total about 66% from China to us, it puts our product out of the marketplace," Schulz said.

Schulz says that now Chinese farms are buying from other countries in Africa and Europe. For the alfalfa now growing in Arizona’s fields, by the time it's ready to be harvested, there may not be a customer to buy it.

Losing about half of his business overnight has not been easy.

“It could break us," Schulz said. "It could break a lot of farmers.”

Schulz says he voted for President Donald Trump and believes in the goals of his tariff plan, to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. and expand exporter access to foreign markets.

“In the long run I think it will be a good thing," He said.


Also
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www.reuters.com

DHL to suspend global shipments of over $800 to US consumers

DHL blamed the halt on new US customs rules which require formal entry processing on all shipments worth over $800.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

DHL Express, a division of Germany's Deutsche Post (DHLn.DE), opens new tab, said it would suspend global business-to-consumer shipments worth over $800 to individuals in the United States from April 21, as U.S. customs regulatory changes have lengthened clearance.
The notice on the company website was not dated, but its metadata showed it was compiled on Saturday.

DHL blamed the halt on new U.S. customs rules which require formal entry processing on all shipments worth over $800. The minimum had been $2,500 until a change on April 5.

DHL said business-to-business shipments would not be suspended but could face delays. Shipments under $800 to either businesses or consumers were not affected by the changes.
 


“… It took only a week before the backtracking began, on 9 April. This was in response to a ferocious reaction in the markets that his government was powerless to deflect or contain. The reversal was not however complete and the continuing turmoil threatens to force further retreats, still leaving the American and indeed the whole international, economy in a much weakened state.

We rarely have had such a clear-cut example of bad strategy.

This is not about objectives, for someone with terrible intent can be strategically adept, but about deciding on a course of action that will not only fail to achieve its stated intent but will have negative consequences that far exceed the positive. In this respect Trump’s tariffs policy is on the extreme end of the scale of badness, exemplary in its awfulness.

It has features that are common to most bad strategies but in key respects it was unique. This was a bad strategic decision that only Donald Trump could have made, not just because he had to be president to make it but also because it was necessary to believe things about international trade that only he and a few close advisers believed.

… Most of my work has been in the military sphere where bad strategy invariably involves underestimation of opponents and overestimation of one’s own capabilities. In many cases far too much emphasis is placed on catching the enemy by surprise with bold early moves and not enough on the later moves, especially if the surprise attacks fail to achieve their objectives.

… We can read across to Trump’s decision-making. He fits the model of a flawed military commander. He follows a worldview that reflects his prejudices, and he is surrounded by staff prized for their loyalty more than independent judgment. He lacks intellectual curiosity and rejects complicating evidence. His starting assumption is that he has the strength to impose his will. …”
 
On the rare earths part of this fiasco along, Trump should have to apologize to American citizems. Not in this article but there are rumors out there that US is so desperate now, CIA has been charged to smuggle rare earths from China if they can.
www.bbc.com

Why China curbing rare earth exports is a huge blow to the US

As the trade war continues to escalate, China has hit back at Trump by suspending exports of rare earth minerals.
www.bbc.com www.bbc.com
 
heelslegup said:
Not in this article but there are rumors out there that US is so desperate now, CIA has been charged to smuggle rare earths from China if they can.
Click to expand...
Seems real big, if true. Where are these rumors? If this is truly happening, at this absurdly early state of the Trump autocracy, the US economy is heading towards depression in the next four years.
 
Typical wild Internet rumors. But given US industrial and defense vulnerabilities to REE. at least in the short term, they should be plotting covert opeations or concluding a trade deal with China ASAP.
Trump started an all-out trade war when theUS was wholly unprepared in key areas. And invdading Greenland won't solve this, nor will tickjing off all the other countries who have rare earth deposits
 
heelslegup said:
Typical wild Internet rumors. But given US industrial and defense vulnerabilities to REE. at least in the short term, they should be plotting covert opeations or concluding a trade deal with China ASAP.
Trump started an all-out trade war when theUS was wholly unprepared in key areas. And invdading Greenland won't solve this, nor will tickjing off all the other countries who have rare earth deposits
Click to expand...
Yep. So we deliberately were going to piss off China with a trade war that we thought we could quickly win, China responds by cutting off our supply of rare earth minerals, so we were going to piss off Denmark by just taking over Greenland (easy peasy!) and use it for rare earth minerals, even though most of it is still buried under thick ice sheets. And even if we did all that it would likely still take years to be able to get enough raw materials to make up for losing China's supply which we had access to before our trade war and ridiculous tariffs. And apparently the geniuses in Trump 2.0 did not really think through the implications and consequences of any of their actions. Shocking, I know.
 


“China has warned countries against appeasing the US in trade talks over President Donald Trump's tariffs.

A Chinese commerce ministry spokesperson made the comments in response to a report that Washington plans to put pressure on governments to restrict trade with Beijing in exchange for exemptions to US import taxes.

… "Appeasement cannot bring peace, and compromise cannot earn one respect," a Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesperson said.

"China believes that all parties should stand on the side of fairness... and should defend international economic and trade rules and the multilateral trading system."…”
 
Trump’s trade war may very well turn into a war on Christmas that will ruin Christmas for a lot of kids. There is a toy store near our house that we go to frequently for birthday/Christmas presents, etc. My wife went there yesterday to buy a birthday present for one of or kids’ friends. The owner told her they were very uncertain about whether they would be getting toy shipments a few months from now. Not just that they would be more expensive, but they may not be getting their new supplies at all. He said it would be a good idea to get the toys you want right now for the holidays.
 

Trump’s Trade Offensive Threatens America’s Financial Primacy​

Rising volatility and dollar weakness raise fears of a financial realignment, away from U.S. shores​

🎁 🔗 —> https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/...d7?st=1nzD7P&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink


“… Volatility in Treasury markets and unexpected weakness in the dollar suggest that what began as a trade conflict could morph into a more dangerous “capital war.” The clash threatens to raise U.S. borrowing costs by undermining Washington’s long-standing financial primacy, which for years has drawn trillions of dollars of foreign funds into the country.

…
Some of the market dislocation reflected hedge funds and other large investors forced to unwind certain trades that became unprofitable. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said the selloff largely reflected technical factors—how investors’ risk-management strategies, such as “Value-at-Risk,” forced sudden and one-time liquidations as correlations between different assets changed unexpectedly.

“This is one of those occasional ‘VAR’ shocks that you get in the trading community. I think a lot of people got very leveraged, maybe out over their skis,” Bessent said on Bloomberg Television this month.

And some analysts have warned against rushing to sweeping conclusions given how foreign investors began the year overly exuberant about U.S. growth prospects, or American “exceptionalism.” Trump’s trade policy, by threatening to push up costs while uncertainty over the policy execution chills growth, has demolished that narrative.

…
But other analysts, economists, and former government officials warned that strained trading conditions might also reflect more fundamental concerns.

“The behavior of investors changed. Ordinarily they would’ve bought the dollar in this crisis time, and instead they sold the dollar,” said Steven Kamin, a former senior Fed economist who is now at the American Enterprise Institute. “It suggests that maybe investors are getting ‘hinky’ about the safety of Treasurys or the desirability of dollar assets.”

Trump administration officials have previously argued that consumers wouldn’t bear the cost of tariff hikes because the dollar would strengthen. A weaker dollar makes it more likely that U.S. importers and retailers will have to pass along price hikes.

… “The tariffs are the tip of the iceberg,” said Ludovic Subran, chief economist and chief investment officer at Allianz, the German insurance giant. “If the dollar depreciates by 30%, what is the return on your investment in the U.S.? Everybody is doing the math.” …”
 
“…

IMG_6566.jpeg

… Data from Japan’s finance ministry shows private investors in Japan sold $17.5 billion in long-term U.S. bonds during the week ending April 4, the largest amount of foreign bond sales since just before last November’s presidential election, according to Bank of America.

Bond market volatility and higher yields don’t necessarily have to reflect foreign selling of Treasuries but rather how capital inflows aren’t keeping pace with an expanding trade deficit. Foreign investors accounted for a smaller share of buyers at Treasury auctions in March, according to Bank of America.

“The longer this goes on, the more likely it is that we become less of a reserve currency than we have been. And that could start being quite expensive,” said Eric Rosengren, who served as president of the Boston Fed from 2007 to 2021.”
 
Trumpty Dumpty woke up pissed with the markets down big again and his approval ratings, especially on the economy, also tanking.

He DEMANDS that Jerome Powell lower rates. Trump claims if he doesn't the economy will slow down. No terrible businessman with no clue of economics. Your shotgun waffling approach tariff policy is about to bring massive inflation which is slowing down spending. He calls Powell a "loser."

Powell is the mastermind that threaded the needle with rates, got inflation under control, and somehow did it without tanking economy. Brilliance.

Analysts say that if Trump fires Powell, the next market drop will make existing drop look like a tiny blip.

 
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