Tariffs Catch-All

  • Thread starter Thread starter BubbaOtis
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The president talks about children having "dolls" as toys, intimates that parents have been giving their kids dozens of dolls, says it's no big deal if the toys cost a bit more . . .

and it's the Dems who are out of touch?
 
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Tariffs to trigger empty shelves, widespread trucking layoffs as early as May, economists warn

A U.S. asset management firm recently issued a dire warning for the trucking and retail sectors as tariffs begin to impact the global supply chain. Apollo
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Apollo Global Management economists shared the April 2025 report “How are US consumers and firms responding to tariffs?” looking ahead to the expected impact of the Trump Administration’s tariffs on the American economy in the months to come.

The report broadly predicts supply chain disruptions, reduced consumer confidence, and a likely economic recession by the summer as a result of tariffs placed on U.S. trading partners, including a 145% tariff on China.


Of particular note for the trucking industry, the report laid out the following timeline for the impact of tariffs on the U.S. supply chain that predicts empty shelves and layoffs:

April 2: Liberation day tariffs. Container departures from China to the U.S. slowing rapidly.

Twenty to forty days container ship transit time.


Early May/Mid May: Container ships to U.S. ports come to a stop.

One to ten days truck/rail transit time to cities.

Mid May/Late May: Trucking demand comes to a halt.


Empty shelves and companies respond to lower sales.

Late May/Early June: Layoffs in trucking and retail industry.

Summer 2025: Recession.
 
This is why Trump wants all truck drivers to speak fluent English. They know freight is going to drop precipitously and truck drivers will be hurt. By requiring fluency in English, they get rid of the hispanic truck drivers and keep the native English speakers who are most likely to vote for Trump. So the people who bear the brunt of the drop in shipments are people Trump wants to hurt anyway.
 
UNCatTech said:
I'm starting to consider moving all of my retirement to cash.
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I’m now down to under 20% pure US market exposure, after selling out of a REIT etf at close, today. I still have modest positions in international income producing and India etfs - otherwise, it’s short term bonds and money market. I’m undoubtedly going to miss some spectacular days, some good weeks, and probably some up months, but there is literally nothing suggesting the US economy will have responsible stewardship, for the duration of Trump. In fact, even if he reverses all this voodoo economic and constantly contradictory bullshit, the destruction to our trade relationships will endure for years.
 
REITs should be fairly resilient over the course of Trump's term. VNQ is still up YTD. And next year Trump will get to appoint the Fed Chair and there is zero chance that person does anything other than lowering rates - juicing the real estate market in turn.

I would not move all your investments to cash unless you need all of that cash over the next 12-18 months.
 
p5mmr9 said:
REITs should be fairly resilient over the course of Trump's term. VNQ is still up YTD. And next year Trump will get to appoint the Fed Chair and there is zero chance that person does anything other than lowering rates - juicing the real estate market in turn.

I would not move all your investments to cash unless you need all of that cash over the next 12-18 months.
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About half of my remaining US market exposure is a BlackRock REIT.
 
Healing said:
I’m now down to under 20% pure US market exposure, after selling out of a REIT etf at close, today. I still have modest positions in international income producing and India etfs - otherwise, it’s short term bonds and money market. I’m undoubtedly going to miss some spectacular days, some good weeks, and probably some up months, but there is literally nothing suggesting the US economy will have responsible stewardship, for the duration of Trump. In fact, even if he reverses all this voodoo economic and constantly contradictory bullshit, the destruction to our trade relationships will endure for years.
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I’m still waiting for someone in this administration to provide an explanation of how these shifting tariffs are supposed to counter a trade deficit. Our trade deficits are due to domestic spending that exceeds production. There is an insatiable appetite for consumer goods. Tariffs can slow spending but that isn’t a solution without a method to increase competitive production. There doesn’t seem to be any kind of rational plan for this.
 
Healing said:
I’m now down to under 20% pure US market exposure, after selling out of a REIT etf at close, today. I still have modest positions in international income producing and India etfs - otherwise, it’s short term bonds and money market. I’m undoubtedly going to miss some spectacular days, some good weeks, and probably some up months, but there is literally nothing suggesting the US economy will have responsible stewardship, for the duration of Trump. In fact, even if he reverses all this voodoo economic and constantly contradictory bullshit, the destruction to our trade relationships will endure for years.
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Yeah, even if we do still have free elections and somehow manage to elect a Democratic POTUS in 2028 (a big assumption at this point) then it will not magically fix the damage Trump has already done to our global relationships. Other nations aren't going to stop treating us like a threat and pariah just because we lucked into electing a Democratic POTUS. We elected Biden and Trump just returned four years later and has already caused even more damage to the global economy than he did in his first term. It is very likely that foreign governments will simply assume going forward that Trumpism is now a dominant factor of American politics and any Democratic POTUS is just a temporary sane interruption between Trumpist administrations and Congresses that will continue to treat them like shit. It may well take decades of sane and competent presidential administrations to fully recover from the damage to our international reputation Trump has caused, which is unlikely to happen as long as Trumpism continues its hold over the GOP.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
Yeah, even if we do still have free elections and somehow manage to elect a Democratic POTUS in 2028 (a big assumption at this point) then it will not magically fix the damage Trump has already done to our global relationships. Other nations aren't going to stop treating us like a threat and pariah just because we lucked into electing a Democratic POTUS. We elected Biden and Trump just returned four years later and has already caused even more damage to the global economy than he did in his first term. It is very likely that foreign governments will simply assume going forward that Trumpism is now a dominant factor of American politics and any Democratic POTUS is just a temporary sane interruption between Trumpist administrations and Congresses that will continue to treat them like shit. It may well take decades of sane and competent presidential administrations to fully recover from the damage to our international reputation Trump has caused, which is unlikely to happen as long as Trumpism continues its hold over the GOP.
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Or hear me out. The American people suffer just enough economically to rid us of the MAGA virus.

I am not rooting for that as I don’t want suffering of any type but it could have that effect.
 
ChapelHillSooner said:
Or hear me out. The American people suffer just enough economically to rid us of the MAGA virus.

I am not rooting for that as I don’t want suffering of any type but it could have that effect.
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Trust me, I hope it happens as well. But I do think it's going to be a long while before most other nations trust us or see us as an ally again.
 
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