Tariffs Catch-All

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superrific said:
I feel quite confident that Supreme Court is going to stay these rulings. I don't mean confident in a good way, it's just that I think they are going to stay any judgment that implicates executive presidential power at all.
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Then they may as well put the Constitution in the supreme court toilets for wiping purposes.
 
uncgriff said:
Then they may as well put the Constitution in the supreme court toilets for wiping purposes.
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Well, they are just staying the orders until the Supreme Court has a chance to review. It really comes down to what the Court thinks should happen as they wait to address it on the merits.

So far, the Court has decided that most of the lower court judgments should be stayed, because apparently the injury to the government of not being able to enforce rules that we lived without for hundreds of years and were put in place in this calendar year is irreparable, whereas "merely" "financial" injuries are not because you can get a money judgment. Assuming your business is still around, a detail the Court doesn't mention.

The exception has been the Court's recognition that being sent to a torture prison is an irreparable injury for the prisoners. They've not stayed orders that implicate habeus. Otherwise, they are letting Trump get away with everything while they decide.

That's not exactly wiping one's butt with the constitution. Maybe it's more like using the constitution to wipe one's brow when nervous. Still bad. It could get worse if the court reaches the wrong conclusion on many of these issues.
 
finesse said:
Don't feel that bad. Most farmers aren't really being hurt. I couldn't find a good survey but these two data points allow for quite a bit of extrapolation when you look at production share and such. I'm expecting that bottom 74% are fairly unscathed and the top 6% already deep in the public trough.

• The 105,384 farms with sales of $1 million or more were 6% of U.S. farms and 31% of farmland; they sold more than three-fourths of all agricultural products. The 1.4 million farms with sales of $50,000 or less accounted for 74% of farms, 25% of farmland and 2% of sales.
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I don't feel bad for anyone that voted for that clown.
 
superrific said:
$1 is OK, per my understanding. But the thing is, the bond has to have been paid at the beginning of the case. If the bond wasn't paid at the outset, then there is no jurisdiction.

The primary purpose of that provision, in my view, isn't to strip courts of their contempt powers in any meaningful way. It's to insulate Trump and the administration from the PIs already entered in the present cases.
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I just read the bill. Bond has to be paid at time injunction is issued. The retroactive application of that law would probably be struck down on Article III grounds. Shoot, the prospective application of that law would probably be struck down on Article III grounds.
 
Calheel said:
I just read the bill. Bond has to be paid at time injunction is issued. The retroactive application of that law would probably be struck down on Article III grounds. Shoot, the prospective application of that law would probably be struck down on Article III grounds.
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I agree that it should be struck down, but I'm not sure it will be. I'm more bullish on the inherent judicial power to punish contempt than maybe the courts and certainly the Supreme Court.

But I think they styled it as a jurisdictional bar precisely as an attempt to get around the Article III argument.
 
nycfan said:
“… As market economist David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research put it in a Wednesday note: “The question is, at what point will the President’s credibility become impaired because you only get so many tries at kicking the tariff can down the road … As for the markets, they are playing the role of dog in President Trump’s impersonation of Ivan Pavlov.”

…
Essaye said that while the TACO trade has worked, investors shouldn’t get complacent. Don’t look past the fact that the tariff burden is now higher and will slow growth and inflation, he said.

Investors can play the TACO trade in the short term by buying cyclical sectors, such as consumer discretionary

XLY
+2.95%
, tech
XLK
+2.38%
, financials
XLF
+1.76%
, and energy
XLE
+0.87%
, which tend to get hardest after tariff threats but tend to bounce back biggest, he said, recommending they spread a full position out over the course of a day or two after the initial threat.

What about a long-term play? The best bet there is to ignore the TACO trade, Essaye said.

“What will determine the next 15%-20% in this market isn’t Trump’s tariff talk. Instead, it’s the economy and whether it can hold up amidst tariffs, policy volatility, higher interest rates, no Fed rates cuts and pressure on consumer spending,” he said.…”
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nycfan said:


A little more detail on second court blocking tariffs.
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round and round she goes...where it stops nobody knows

 
Just an administrative stay, doesn't mean anything. But I very much doubt the Supreme Court is going to let the Federal Circuit have the last word here.
 
superrific said:
Just an administrative stay, doesn't mean anything. But I very much doubt the Supreme Court is going to let the Federal Circuit have the last word here.
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Probably not but Federal circuit is hearing it en banc and in a relative hurry (briefings due June 5 and June 9).
 
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nycfan said:
Probably not but DC circuit is hearing it en banc and in a relative hurry (briefings due June 5 and June 9).
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DC circuit? Appeals from the CIT go to the Federal Circuit. Maybe you're referring to the other case? I didn't see where that one was filed.
 
superrific said:
DC circuit? Appeals from the CIT go to the Federal Circuit. Maybe you're referring to the other case? I didn't see where that one was filed.
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You are right, Federal Circuit. Was typing without thinking.
 
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