The Weather Thread

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lightbluenc said:
Let's hypothetically say you had a trip planned to a certain area near Orlando that is "magical" starting on Wednesday. Best bet to cancel or try to wait and see if any parts of the trip are salvageable?
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We were supposed to fly down on Thursday to see family and do one day at the Magic Kingdom. Our flight was cancelled last night.
 
Tampa did a simulation in 2020. Read this and compare to Milton.

www.tampabay.com

Hurricane Phoenix is Tampa Bay’s devastating worst-case scenario

Phoenix 2.0 is the latest simulation of what would happen if a Category 5 storm were to make landfall here: flooding, destruction and a decade of rebuilding.
www.tampabay.com www.tampabay.com

"The water would rise so dramatically that most of downtown and South Tampa would be under at least 12 to 15 feet of water, according to a Federal Emergency Management Agency software tool used to estimate losses from potential disasters.

The edges of the South Tampa peninsula, all of Davis and Harbour islands, the Channel District and the banks of the Hillsborough River would see water 21 feet or higher.

Westchase and Oldsmar would be entirely underwater, with surge extending all the way inland to Gunn Highway.

One would be able to swim U.S. 41 from the Manatee River to the Ikea store in Ybor City.

The swollen Tampa Bay would meet the Gulf of Mexico in Seminole, swallowing much of mid Pinellas County: The Gateway area, Feather Sound, Pinellas Park, Lealman, Kenneth City and east Largo would all be under water, plus everything south of 22nd Avenue S in St. Petersburg. The intersection of Fifth Avenue N and 34th Street would be the center of St. Pete Island.

The highest surge would hit 42 feet.

The beaches as we know them would be gone."
 
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This is a worst case course with the recent update.

The dot is right over at Pete and tampa.

1000005410.png
 
Just an absolute worst-case scenario for the stretch from Tampa up to the Big Bend, which already saw a ton of water from Helene. And with so many state and federal resources already tied down in Appalachia this is really going to be a stress test of our ability to respond to multiple disasters at once. Too bad for all these areas that the Republicans not only want FEMA to run out of money to deal with this, they refuse to bring Congress back to do anything about it, solely for political reasons.
 
uncgriff said:
This is a worst case course with the recent update.

The dot is right over at Pete and tampa.

1000005410.png
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Yikes. My BIL and SIL live about a block or so back from the beach in St. Pete. Checked in with them this morning and they're already packing to head up to my MIL and FIL's house in Charlotte. Glad they are getting the hell out of there.
 
CFordUNC said:
My brother-in-law and sister-in-law live two rows back from the beach in St. Pete. They only just got their power back a couple of days ago from Helene. Hopefully they are making preparations already to either evacuate down to Fort Myers where her parents live, or to Fernandina Beach where my mother-in-law and father-in-law have a place.
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Are either of those definitely far enough outside the track to be options to evacuate? I suppose the storm will be diminished substantially by the time it gets to the east coast of Florida.

ETA: I see you and others already addressed this, sorry.
 
Seeing a lot of speculation now that it will make landfall a cat 4 and possibly a cat 5. Either would be absolutely disastrous.
 
rodoheel said:
Are either of those definitely far enough outside the track to be options to evacuate? I suppose the storm will be diminished substantially by the time it gets to the east coast of Florida.

ETA: I see you and others already addressed this, sorry.
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You're good, man! Appreciate you very much. You're exactly right- their initial plan was to evacuate to Fernandina but they decided overnight to just get the heck out of Florida altogether.
 
Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1055 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...MILTON RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Milton has strengthened to a category 5 hurricane. The
maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 160 mph (250 km/h) with
higher gusts. Data from the aircraft also indicate that the
minimum pressure has fallen to 925 mb (27.31 inches).
 
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