Trump / Musk (other than DOGE) Omnibus Thread

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ZenMode said:
I mean... Now you're just making stuff up. For all we know there could be dividends being paid to this day in the form of increased exports. Who knows.

I knew nothing about this deal until today, but it can't be "So the US got nothing. Nothing. Trump got duped" and then minutes later countries bought more for a couple of years and I'm a fool who got snookered. This does appear to be what I referenced earlier, which is you opposing basically anything he does or supports. Your sources seem sketchy in this case, also.
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Once again, we're in this weird situation where you admit to knowing nothing about the situation, but apparently enough to tell me I'm wrong even though I know about it and was the one who brought it up.

Let me make this simple for you. The. EU. Does. Not. Buy. LNG. It. Plays. No. Role.

www.politico.eu

EU’s opening bid to avoid Trump’s tariffs: We could buy more American gas

Brussels hopes to avoid trade war with the Republican president-elect.
www.politico.eu www.politico.eu

"During the first Trump term, Juncker avoided more tariffs by assuring the U.S. president that Europe would facilitate more imports of liquefied natural gas (and more American soybeans.) In fact, the European Commission has no real power in determining European companies' purchases of LNG and soybeans, but Trump was happy to accept the political theater of parading data that European purchases were going up."

"Laurent Ruseckas, executive director for gas markets at commodities giant S&P Global, said any such deal on fossil fuels was likely to be more about politics than energy.

“The EU doesn't buy LNG — there's a global LNG market and LNG buyers have/ their own contracts,” he said. “It's certainly possible to do a memorandum of understanding to talk about increasing purchases but ultimately in the past that's been a way to put a political wrapper around something that was delivered by the market. And the EU is buying as much LNG currently as the market needs.”

Is Laurent Ruseckas, executive director for gas markets at S&P Global, a "sketchy source"?

Don't you get tired of being humiliated when arguing with me? You think that I post shit I know nothing about, because that's what you do, but in fact I very rarely do anything like that.
 
The exclusions list will be practically unreadable it'll be so long. It'll be a 25% hike on Canadian maple Syrup and Mexican frijoles with exclusions for everything else. And Repubs will think it's great.
 
superrific said:
Once again, we're in this weird situation where you admit to knowing nothing about the situation, but apparently enough to tell me I'm wrong even though I know about it and was the one who brought it up.

Let me make this simple for you. The. EU. Does. Not. Buy. LNG. It. Plays. No. Role.

www.politico.eu

EU’s opening bid to avoid Trump’s tariffs: We could buy more American gas

Brussels hopes to avoid trade war with the Republican president-elect.
www.politico.eu www.politico.eu

"During the first Trump term, Juncker avoided more tariffs by assuring the U.S. president that Europe would facilitate more imports of liquefied natural gas (and more American soybeans.) In fact, the European Commission has no real power in determining European companies' purchases of LNG and soybeans, but Trump was happy to accept the political theater of parading data that European purchases were going up."

"Laurent Ruseckas, executive director for gas markets at commodities giant S&P Global, said any such deal on fossil fuels was likely to be more about politics than energy.

“The EU doesn't buy LNG — there's a global LNG market and LNG buyers have/ their own contracts,” he said. “It's certainly possible to do a memorandum of understanding to talk about increasing purchases but ultimately in the past that's been a way to put a political wrapper around something that was delivered by the market. And the EU is buying as much LNG currently as the market needs.”

Is Laurent Ruseckas, executive director for gas markets at S&P Global, a "sketchy source"?

Don't you get tired of being humiliated when arguing with me? You think that I post shit I know nothing about, because that's what you do, but in fact I very rarely do anything like that.
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Humiliated? You're the one who said "nothing" and when I provided a link showing a reported 181% increase, you changed your position from nothing to maybe an increase for couple years. That would mean his actions had an impact even if it wasn't directly with the EU.

As the Politico article says, a "memorandum of understanding" can be put out. Could that not be the cause of the reported 181% increase?
 
To all the Trump voters here who were claiming Trump would have TARGETED Tariffs (emphasis on “targeted” which is supposed to make them more palatable), are tariffs on everything from Canada, Mexico, and China “targeted?”
Is that what you were imagining, or is it more likely that you will claim that, yes, tariffs on anything and everything from those countries is what you meant by “targeted.”
 
Moving my posts off the first 100 days thread to here:

#1 export from Canada to US: crude oil. I assume Americans love paying more to put gas in their cars. Speaking of cars. #2 export. What's a 25% tariff on your Canadian built Ford?
 
altmin said:
Moving my posts off the first 100 days thread to here:

#1 export from Canada to US: crude oil. I assume Americans love paying more to put gas in their cars. Speaking of cars. #2 export. What's a 25% tariff on your Canadian built Ford?
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Now let's talk about who is the #1 importer of American goods? Yup, you guessed it - Sylvester Stallone... (obligatory Canadian reference)
Mexico and China are next up.

If you live in the real world, you know retaliatory tariffs are a thing. The Canadian dollar is already at a historically weak point against the American dollar thanks to the Biden recovery, which was not felt globally. If the Canadian buying ability is already below 70% of what it used to be and you tack on a 25% retaliatory price hike on top of that, Canadians might just start buying less American goods. The rest of the world makes a lot of stuff and we have two very nice ports in Halifax and Vancouver. Now, let's consider how that might effect the people who make the doodads and grow the whatnows that Canadians buy more than everyone else in the world from the US. Then add in the #2 and #3 consumer of American goods to the party.

It might not be prudent for the CEO of Doodad incorporated to make so many doodads this year, and why should he pay for all those Trump voters to make less doodads?

I hope the pain is real and there is someone who speaks clearly enough to get through the sugar high of "he lets me be the shitty person I aspire to be" to make it understood that you did this to yourself assholes.
 
ChileG said:
To all the Trump voters here who were claiming Trump would have TARGETED Tariffs (emphasis on “targeted” which is supposed to make them more palatable), are tariffs on everything from Canada, Mexico, and China “targeted?”
Is that what you were imagining, or is it more likely that you will claim that, yes, tariffs on anything and everything from those countries is what you meant by “targeted.”
Click to expand...
Canada and Mexico have 57 days to “comply” with Our Dear Leader’s demands to avoid these tariffs. They’ll both tighten their borders to avoid the tariffs. USA wins.
 
During Trump’s first administration I think he shocked the “establishment” leadership around the world. They didn’t really know how to react to him. Of course, then Covid hit and it upended everything.

Unfortunately, I am pretty confident that the other economic powers know their competitor now. I am afraid that the US is getting ready to find out.

“Craziness” works until it doesn’t.
 
ChileG said:
I’m assuming that you are being sarcastic.
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Even if serious, he is onto something — it is quite possible that this is a performative threat that can be solved by making performative genuflection to Trump before he is inaugurated. Trump will happily pretend he’s proven who's the boss and stopped fentanyl and government backed immigration to the U.S. of Canada and Mexico just say they are doing something.

OTOH, I don’t think Trump can put blanket tariffs on Mexico or Canada anyway under the USMCA. That is a feature of the amended version of NAFTA that he loves to promote as some great improvement over NAFTA (though it was really the same deal with a few tweaks and the exemptions from tariffs was also a feature of NAFTA).
 
nycfan said:
Even if serious, he is onto something — it is quite possible that this is a performative threat that can be solved by making performative genuflection to Trump before he is inaugurated. Trump will happily pretend he’s proven who's the boss and stopped fentanyl and government backed immigration to the U.S. of Canada and Mexico just say they are doing something.

OTOH, I don’t think Trump can put blanket tariffs on Mexico or Canada anyway under the USMCA. That is a feature of the amended version of NAFTA that he loves to promote as some great improvement over NAFTA (though it was really the same deal with a few tweaks and the exemptions from tariffs was also a feature of NAFTA).
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I agree with the performative part, because it seems unlikely to me that illegal immigration and the fentanyl problems are going to be solved in 60 days.
And I think it is likely that Trump will claim a victory (and his acolytes will celebrate it) whatever the outcome of yesterday’s announcement is.
 
By no means do I think that Trump is some 5D chess-playing master tactician- I don’t, and he’s not, not by a longshot- but I do tend to think that those tariff announcements yesterday were performative, mainly because I don’t think that even the folks (well, the folks who aren’t Elon Musk) around Donald Trump are stupid enough to purposefully tank the economy and send inflation skyrocketing. We shall see.
 
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