Trump / Musk (other than DOGE) Omnibus Thread

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But the guy who bankrupted his own casino, failed at selling steaks, collapsed his own scam university, and is so broke that he has to huckster guitars and gold sneakers, is such a bigly business genius and masterful negotiator!!!!! There’s no way those idiot Canadians and Mexicans could ever see right through his bluster and bullshit!
 
CFordUNC said:
Yeah, thank goodness we are going to finally put an end to the scourge of…. check notes… Canadians pouring across the northern border into the United States.
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Well you know how people up here hate their lower costs drugs and medical care that doesn't cripple them financially for life.
 
I don't think the Administration will resort to across the boards tariffs. I agree that would tank the economy. There is a benefit to having an unpredictable President issuing threats against our neighbors. I guarantee you it will get their attention and they'll act accordingly. It's unconventional but I predict it works.

This also demonstrates that the center of world power currently resides in Mar Lago and not DC.
 
Ramrouser said:
I don't think the Administration will resort to across the boards tariffs. I agree that would tank the economy. There is a benefit to having an unpredictable President issuing threats against our neighbors. I guarantee you it will get their attention and they'll act accordingly. It's unconventional but I predict it works.

This also demonstrates that the center of world power currently resides in Mar Lago and not DC.
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The unpredictable part has its "merits" perhaps . Tearing apart our relationships with our neighbors and presumably with out European allies is the really scary part
 
Ramrouser said:
I don't think the Administration will resort to across the boards tariffs. I agree that would tank the economy. There is a benefit to having an unpredictable President issuing threats against our neighbors. I guarantee you it will get their attention and they'll act accordingly. It's unconventional but I predict it works.

This also demonstrates that the center of world power currently resides in Mar Lago and not DC.
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Ramrouser said:
I don't think the Administration will resort to across the boards tariffs. I agree that would tank the economy. There is a benefit to having an unpredictable President issuing threats against our neighbors. I guarantee you it will get their attention and they'll act accordingly. It's unconventional but I predict it works.

This also demonstrates that the center of world power currently resides in Mar Lago and not DC.
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Ok, but let's consider the possible outcomes. What if, hypothetically, it doesn't work? What if Canada and Mexico call his bluff?

What does he do then? He's got to respond in some way, or the whole world will follow suit. So, how does he respond?

Trump is the antithesis of Teddy Roosevelt's "Speak softly and carry a big stick." At some point, if he keeps going, however, he is going to have to pull out whatever stick he has. Because "being unpredictable issuing threats against our neighbors" only works for so long, without following through on said threats.

At best, unpredictability is a short term solution. But, when dealing with unpredictability, one has to also factor in what can go wrong vs. what can go right. Keep in mind, Trump has had the last four years to form his plan for this administration. But, so has the world. And, based on who Trump has around him in his cabinet, there is a good chance that the world can out-maneuver him. So, when things don't go his way, again, how does he respond, and what is the impact on all of us when that occurs?
 
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If you view tariffs as a form of low-level warfare against other Countries, they have no choice but to respond. It quickly becomes tit for tat. By now, these other Countries should be ready. Sounds like Mexico is:

If Trump carries out his tariff threat, Mexico should retaliate, leveling tariffs on U.S. corn growers, milk and pork exporters and other sectors that are among the president-elect’s most important supporters, said Ildefonso Guajardo, who served as economy minister and led Mexico’s negotiations for the creation of the USMCA.

In 2018, Mexico responded to U.S. tariffs on its steel exports by imposing matching tariffs on U.S. steel. It was also among the first countries to target key Republican districts in retaliation to Trump’s tariffs by slapping import duties on other U.S. goods including pork, cheese, apples and Bourbon.

“Trump said he negotiated a North America trade treaty that was the best in history,” said Guajardo. “I would use his treaty to retaliate in the same magnitude against his most important backers if he tries to hurt Mexican exports.”

 
Ramrouser said:
I don't think the Administration will resort to across the boards tariffs. I agree that would tank the economy. There is a benefit to having an unpredictable President issuing threats against our neighbors. I guarantee you it will get their attention and they'll act accordingly. It's unconventional but I predict it works.

This also demonstrates that the center of world power currently resides in Mar Lago and not DC.
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I mean, I don’t think they can do across the board tariffs without violating the USMCA and triggering all kinds of repercussions. For instance, Mexico is the leading supplier of auto parts to U.S. assembly plants now — this harebrained scheme could cripple Detroit (if implemented).

But, USMCA has a 6-year sunset that has to be reauthorized during the upcoming Trump term. That provides some leverage to the Trump Administration to threaten to walk away (though the long term impact could be disastrous to our free trade if we did so). There is supposed to be a 10-year wind down of USMCA is not re-urbanized but I assume Trump would say fuck that, so sue me and ignore the wind down if he got a mind to do so.
 
If Trump gets his way, we will have huge inflation.

I will give an example from my industry, Electric Utilities. Our meters are made in Mexico, and their electronic modules are made in the US. So modules shipped to Mexico will have a 25% tariff going in, and then the entire assembly will get a 25% tariff coming back. So a $100 meter will now cost ~$140.
 
p5mmr9 said:
but fuck it - let's get the arsonist back in so he can burn it all down.
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This is the part that is so crazy to me. Elon and Trump are basically saying they want to do for the US what Javier Milei did for Argentina. But the two situations aren't remotely similar! Milei took over in Argentina in a time of hyperinflation, with annual inflation of hundreds (if not thousands) percentage points. He's basically thrown the emergency break to cool inflation, throwing the economy into depression and most of the country into poverty. Opinions vary on whether his program is a good idea - way too early for him to be claiming victory, for sure - but the only reason something drastic was worth considering is because the economy was in shambles. But the US economy not only isn't in shambles, it's the best in the world! So we should be trying to make minor tweaks to address the problems we do have. Instead, Musk et al are ushing the idea that we're in some sort of crisis that requires drastic action. It's one thing to throw the emergency brake when you're careening off a cliff, and another thing entirely to throw it while you're cruising down the middle of the highway.

I still fear that this is Musk/Thiel trying to intentionally tank the US economy to weaken the dollar and push Bitcoin as the world's new reserve currency. Because it's hard to make it make sense otherwise.
 
p5mmr9 said:
Inflation is under 3%. Unemployment is near 4%. GDP growth is about 2.5%.
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I will be interested to see those numbers in January and then compare them to the numbers in July.

My guess is the numbers will be little changed or even a bit worse, and half the country will believe we have returned to having the greatest economy in the history of all mankind.
 
aGDevil2k said:
Predictions

1. The wrong track poll will surge earlier than expected... By mid next year. People will really regret voting for him (not MAGAs but the other 5-10%)
2. Democrats will start to reach out to moderates way more than in the last decade
3. Democrats will seriously blue wave in 2026
4. President 48 will have a metric shit ton to clean up and fix it won't even be a normal presidency
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reaching out to the moderates has been gang busters so far....
rodoheel said:
This is the part that is so crazy to me. Elon and Trump are basically saying they want to do for the US what Javier Milei did for Argentina. But the two situations aren't remotely similar! Milei took over in Argentina in a time of hyperinflation, with annual inflation of hundreds (if not thousands) percentage points. He's basically thrown the emergency break to cool inflation, throwing the economy into depression and most of the country into poverty. Opinions vary on whether his program is a good idea - way too early for him to be claiming victory, for sure - but the only reason something drastic was worth considering is because the economy was in shambles. But the US economy not only isn't in shambles, it's the best in the world! So we should be trying to make minor tweaks to address the problems we do have. Instead, Musk et al are ushing the idea that we're in some sort of crisis that requires drastic action. It's one thing to throw the emergency brake when you're careening off a cliff, and another thing entirely to throw it while you're cruising down the middle of the highway.

I still fear that this is Musk/Thiel trying to intentionally tank the US economy to weaken the dollar and push Bitcoin as the world's new reserve currency. Because it's hard to make it make sense otherwise.
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50% of the country didn't vote. and I'd say 90% of the people who did vote have no clue who Miel is or what he did. People need to fall on their own face to feel pain. It's hard to feel the pain while watching someone else falling, especially when you are not even looking.
 
Ramrouser said:
I don't think the Administration will resort to across the boards tariffs. I agree that would tank the economy. There is a benefit to having an unpredictable President issuing threats against our neighbors. I guarantee you it will get their attention and they'll act accordingly. It's unconventional but I predict it works.

This also demonstrates that the center of world power currently resides in Mar Lago and not DC.
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It’s an easy prediction to make when any outcome will result in “see, it worked.” That is my prediction.
As for “are they working right now?”
No, mortgage rates have risen because of Trumps “threats against our neighbors.”
So it is demonstrably NOT WORKING so far. The future is unknown but can you acknowledge that at this stage of the game Trump’s unpredictability is actually costing Americans money?
 
The idea that a bunch of millionaires and billionaires want to altruistically "fix" the government to work on behalf of the working man is infuriatingly naive. They didn't become ultra-wealthy by working in the best interest of anyone but themselves. There is no "enough."

If the richest man on the planet gave a shit about the working man, he wouldn't be the richest man on the planet - he'd put the VAST majority of his $330+ billion dollars to work for others. But he hasn't. And he won't. I cannot fathom how anyone could retain that amount of wealth.

And now we hand them the keys to the government too. Are people expecting them to change the essence of what made them who they are? Change what made them successful, what made them gobs and gobs of money, what allowed them power and influence?

The rich are using their money and influence to cosplay as statesmen because owning companies just doesn't give them the same high it used to. They need something stronger.
 
nycfan said:
I mean, I don’t think they can do across the board tariffs without violating the USMCA and triggering all kinds of repercussions. For instance, Mexico is the leading supplier of auto parts to U.S. assembly plants now — this harebrained scheme could cripple Detroit (if implemented).
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If Trump does this, it would obliterate the USMCA and we'd have to go back to the drawing board on trade agreements.
 
ZenMode said:
Humiliated? You're the one who said "nothing" and when I provided a link showing a reported 181% increase, you changed your position from nothing to maybe an increase for couple years. That would mean his actions had an impact even if it wasn't directly with the EU.

As the Politico article says, a "memorandum of understanding" can be put out. Could that not be the cause of the reported 181% increase?
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yes, humiliated. I was tossing you a bone with "maybe a slight increase for a couple of years" (that is, maybe 10% of the 181% rise was because of Trump) but never mind. The expert cited in the Politico article was very clear. Any MOU would be complete window dressing. Everyone LNG buyer in Europe is a market participant that buys according to the market. There is regulation of that sector, but the regulation is done on the national level, not the EU level.

Your golden boy Trump was played and that's the long and short of it. Completely played, because he doesn't know shit about the world and won't listen to people who do. Sound familiar?
 
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