Trump / Musk (other than DOGE) Omnibus Thread

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A brief and elementary economics lesson courtesy of The Atlantic:


The Price America Will Pay for Trump’s Tariffs


The most popular beer in America is Modelo Especial, brewed in Mexico. Impose a 25 percent tariff on Modelo and sales will slide. So, too, will exports of the American barley that goes into Mexican beer. Mexico buys three-quarters of U.S. barley exports, almost all for brewing.

Trump surrogates may promise you that by driving Mexican beer off of grocery shelves, Trump’s tariffs will increase sales of U.S. barley to U.S. brewers. That promise may even be substantially true. But that offer has fine print that barley growers will notice.

Barley growers don’t care only about how much barley they sell. They care about the price at which they sell it.

A tariff raises the price of both every imported good and every good that competes with imports.

If the price of Modelo is pushed up, the price of American-brewed beer will rise as well. American beermakers are not operating a charity. The tariff on Modelo allows them to both increase their market share at Modelo’s expense and raise their prices enough to increase their margins at the consumers’ expense.

But American consumers do not have infinite amounts of money. If they are paying more for beer, they have to make savings elsewhere. The result—and economists will prove this to you all day with facts and figures—is that prices in exporting sectors such as barley, and agriculture generally, will decline in proportion as prices in the importing sectors rise.

Trump tariffs will be paid in the form of higher prices for imports and their substitutes, and lower profits and wages for everyone who works in export industries.
 
This was also written by David Frumm, but seems yet more meaningful now:

“America First” means “America Alone.” This week’s trade wars are steps on the way to future difficulties—and, unless a great infusion of better judgment or better luck suddenly occurs, future disasters."

My take: Trump seems intent on breaking up the post-war order that kept the lid on Russia and kept the peace for 80 years (since 1945 - 2025). Why is this?
 
Burgawnc said:
A brief and elementary economics lesson courtesy of The Atlantic:


The Price America Will Pay for Trump’s Tariffs


The most popular beer in America is Modelo Especial, brewed in Mexico. Impose a 25 percent tariff on Modelo and sales will slide. So, too, will exports of the American barley that goes into Mexican beer. Mexico buys three-quarters of U.S. barley exports, almost all for brewing.

Trump surrogates may promise you that by driving Mexican beer off of grocery shelves, Trump’s tariffs will increase sales of U.S. barley to U.S. brewers. That promise may even be substantially true. But that offer has fine print that barley growers will notice.

Barley growers don’t care only about how much barley they sell. They care about the price at which they sell it.

A tariff raises the price of both every imported good and every good that competes with imports.

If the price of Modelo is pushed up, the price of American-brewed beer will rise as well. American beermakers are not operating a charity. The tariff on Modelo allows them to both increase their market share at Modelo’s expense and raise their prices enough to increase their margins at the consumers’ expense.

But American consumers do not have infinite amounts of money. If they are paying more for beer, they have to make savings elsewhere. The result—and economists will prove this to you all day with facts and figures—is that prices in exporting sectors such as barley, and agriculture generally, will decline in proportion as prices in the importing sectors rise.

Trump tariffs will be paid in the form of higher prices for imports and their substitutes, and lower profits and wages for everyone who works in export industries.
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So, what you are saying is the Trump will lead the way for Bud Light's resurgence?
 
dukeman92 said:
I don’t think people realize how much trouble we’re in.
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I expected it to be far, far worse than Trump 1.0, but I didn’t expect this kind of fuckery so soon. My prognostications for where we would be in 4 years may turn out to be a best-case-scenario fantasy.
 
BlooVooDoo said:
My prognostications for where we would be in 4 years may turn out to be a best-case-scenario fantasy.
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This is always true of MAGA. It's not just you. Me too. It's not just that there's no bottom. It's that most of us don't spend time lurking in the deep. Musk and Trump are the Balrog.
 
BlooVooDoo said:
I expected it to be far, far worse than Trump 1.0, but I didn’t expect this kind of fuckery so soon. My prognostications for where we would be in 4 years may turn out to be a best-case-scenario fantasy.
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This is why I've encouraged folks in my circles to develop "get out" and "hunker down" plans. Those plans often go to shit when chaos ensues, but it's better than having no concept for what you will do when ttump starts sending humvees and masked soldiers into US cities, and encourages the Good Germans to report-on and harass their neighbors, friends, and family.

I spent a decent part of the morning organizing and adding to my go-bag (also live in a nature disaster prone area). On Wednesday, I take part 1 of 3 tests for Canadian licensure. Multiple people in my department have initiated moves to Canada, with one already set for April/May. Another worked in New Zealand a few years after grad school, and is returning, post haste. Those places are in no manner immune to maga chaos and cruelty, but they currently have functioning societies, safety nets, and politics that disagree over policy, not which human life is valuable and which isn't.
 
BlooVooDoo said:
I expected it to be far, far worse than Trump 1.0, but I didn’t expect this kind of fuckery so soon. My prognostications for where we would be in 4 years may turn out to be a best-case-scenario fantasy.
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I've been surprised only by the rapid pace of the coup but probably shouldn't have been. Pubs have been preparing for this for four years and they're playing for keeps this time.
 
Burgawnc said:
A brief and elementary economics lesson courtesy of The Atlantic:


The Price America Will Pay for Trump’s Tariffs


The most popular beer in America is Modelo Especial, brewed in Mexico. Impose a 25 percent tariff on Modelo and sales will slide. So, too, will exports of the American barley that goes into Mexican beer. Mexico buys three-quarters of U.S. barley exports, almost all for brewing.

Trump surrogates may promise you that by driving Mexican beer off of grocery shelves, Trump’s tariffs will increase sales of U.S. barley to U.S. brewers. That promise may even be substantially true. But that offer has fine print that barley growers will notice.

Barley growers don’t care only about how much barley they sell. They care about the price at which they sell it.

A tariff raises the price of both every imported good and every good that competes with imports.

If the price of Modelo is pushed up, the price of American-brewed beer will rise as well. American beermakers are not operating a charity. The tariff on Modelo allows them to both increase their market share at Modelo’s expense and raise their prices enough to increase their margins at the consumers’ expense.

But American consumers do not have infinite amounts of money. If they are paying more for beer, they have to make savings elsewhere. The result—and economists will prove this to you all day with facts and figures—is that prices in exporting sectors such as barley, and agriculture generally, will decline in proportion as prices in the importing sectors rise.

Trump tariffs will be paid in the form of higher prices for imports and their substitutes, and lower profits and wages for everyone who works in export industries.
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Also Modelo will start looking to buy some fine tariff free Canadian barley.
 
Burgawnc said:
A brief and elementary economics lesson courtesy of The Atlantic:


The Price America Will Pay for Trump’s Tariffs


The most popular beer in America is Modelo Especial, brewed in Mexico. Impose a 25 percent tariff on Modelo and sales will slide. So, too, will exports of the American barley that goes into Mexican beer. Mexico buys three-quarters of U.S. barley exports, almost all for brewing.

Trump surrogates may promise you that by driving Mexican beer off of grocery shelves, Trump’s tariffs will increase sales of U.S. barley to U.S. brewers. That promise may even be substantially true. But that offer has fine print that barley growers will notice.

Barley growers don’t care only about how much barley they sell. They care about the price at which they sell it.

A tariff raises the price of both every imported good and every good that competes with imports.

If the price of Modelo is pushed up, the price of American-brewed beer will rise as well. American beermakers are not operating a charity. The tariff on Modelo allows them to both increase their market share at Modelo’s expense and raise their prices enough to increase their margins at the consumers’ expense.

But American consumers do not have infinite amounts of money. If they are paying more for beer, they have to make savings elsewhere. The result—and economists will prove this to you all day with facts and figures—is that prices in exporting sectors such as barley, and agriculture generally, will decline in proportion as prices in the importing sectors rise.

Trump tariffs will be paid in the form of higher prices for imports and their substitutes, and lower profits and wages for everyone who works in export industries.
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Thanks to everyone who voted for Trump. Really appreciate it.
 
nycfan said:


“… Three of the sources said the DOGE personnel wanted to gain access to security systems and personnel files. Two of those sources said also they wanted access to classified information.

USAID Director of Security John Voorhees and his deputy are the latest officials who have been put on leave amid fears that the agency is being intentionally dismantled by the Trump administration. Rumors are swirling that President Donald Trump intends to sign an executive order to fold USAID into the US State Department – a move that Democratic lawmakers say is illegal.

… Around 60 senior USAID staff were put on leave last week on accusations of attempting to circumvent the executive order on foreign aid. Another senior official was put on leave for trying to reverse that move after finding no evidence of wrongdoing.

One source said the entire USAID public affairs office was put on leave and locked out of their systems.“

Animated GIF
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I hope more government employees fight back too.
 
People in red states don't like driving Ford Trucks do they?


Workers in Windsor-Essex also build the engines for the popular Ford F-150 and Super Duty trucks.

John D'Agnolo is the president of Unifor Local 200, the union representing workers at Ford's two engine plants in the region.

D'Agnolo worries the industry will be left devastated after tariffs drive up the cost of the vehicles and lead to decreased production and job losses.

"They absolutely make no sense," he said of the tariffs. "It's one of the most frustrating things I've dealt with in a long time, when you think about what we build here."

He said the engines have thousands of parts and they're crossing the border back and forth in the process, and face tariffs along the way.

"So just think about the engine alone, the cost on the engine alone, let alone the other parts on the vehicle," he said.
 
Once tariffs are imposed, those parts will get more expensive, but U.S.-based manufacturers don't have the ability to quickly address the new demand for domestic parts.

He says 22 per cent of U.S. vehicles are assembled in Canada and Mexico.

"Estimates are that to replace Canadian production, you would need five, six new assembly plants in the United States at a cost of $50 billion. That is just not realistic." he said.

He anticipates rising vehicle prices along production stoppages at plants across North America as cross-border supply chains — which the auto sector relies deeply on -— are turned on their head.

"And ultimately, we could see job losses in the sector as as companies grapple with this new reality," he said.
 
altmin said:
Once tariffs are imposed, those parts will get more expensive, but U.S.-based manufacturers don't have the ability to quickly address the new demand for domestic parts.

He says 22 per cent of U.S. vehicles are assembled in Canada and Mexico.

"Estimates are that to replace Canadian production, you would need five, six new assembly plants in the United States at a cost of $50 billion. That is just not realistic." he said.

He anticipates rising vehicle prices along production stoppages at plants across North America as cross-border supply chains — which the auto sector relies deeply on -— are turned on their head.

"And ultimately, we could see job losses in the sector as as companies grapple with this new reality," he said.
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And if auto parts go up, it will be more expensive to repair cars, which means auto insurance rates will increase.
 
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