Trump / Musk (other than DOGE)

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milom98 said:
Trying to get the girlfriend in a new vehicle before Trump's stupid tariffs idea likely causes prices to increase significantly.

I was thinking (yeah, that's dangerous) the other day - What's going to stop companies from just jacking up prices for anything and everything and blaming it on tariffs? We've already seen what they've done the last few years with "needed" price hikes and tariffs gives them another excuse to raise prices, even if doesn't affect them.
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You're underselling the problem. It's not that we can't stop companies from raising prices. Rather, higher prices are the intended result of tariffs. If they aren't generating more profits for domestic industry, then they won't create higher wages or spur domestic investment (both of which are dubious results, but that's what the tariff folks claim will happen).

The evidence of the effects of tariffs -- which is extensive, as tariffs are one of the most empirically studied issues in all of economics -- unambiguously shows that tariffs lead to higher prices and lower quality from domestic manufacturers. Which is, again, what you'd expect. Maybe Trump thinks that he wants to go back to the 1970s auto industry, but then we'd all be driving shit cars. It was foreign competition that forced the Big Three to wake up.
 
nycfan said:
We’re talking about a guy who has developed an “economic policy” of tariffs on everything will eliminate the budget deficit and allow him to virtually eliminate income taxes, so, no, he doesn’t get it at all OR he gets it but doesn’t care because his supporters don’t get it.
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I'll take door #2, Monty.
Tariffs can be dangerous. They contributed to the Great Depression. They are a restraint on foreign trade and the free market system. IOW, they are anti-capitalist. Adam Smith is rolling in his grave right now.
 
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I’m pretty sure the reason for the tariffs is because Trump knows he has to do something dramatic.
He can’t claim he fixed everything and the economy is great because of him if he doesn’t do anything.
He’ll create some unhelpful tariffs (and tax cuts) like he did with the soybeans that will hurt Americans, but it will give his acolytes something to point to as the reason their lives are better, as we slink into the next recession (that is most likely coming regardless of what Trump does).
 
ChileG said:
I’m pretty sure the reason for the tariffs is because Trump knows he has to do something dramatic.
He can’t claim he fixed everything and the economy is great because of him if he doesn’t do anything.
He’ll create some unhelpful tariffs (and tax cuts) like he did with the soybeans that will hurt Americans, but it will give his acolytes something to point to as the reason their lives are better, as we slink into the next recession (that is most likely coming regardless of what Trump does).
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I'm not sure recessions exist any more, outside of exogenous shocks like financial crises, pandemics or . . . tariffs.

Like, if Trump does nothing, the economy will probably do just fine. But he wants to fuck it all up. I know it sucks and I don't like to wish hardship on anyone, but we also need MAGA to go down in flames. The tariffs will hopefully do that.

I don't think it's going to be such a light touch this time. China is already preparing "supply chain warfare." Just read an article about it. They aren't going to retaliate with tariffs. They are going to retaliate by withholding from us the things we need to make the products we sell.
 
superrific said:
I'm not sure recessions exist any more, outside of exogenous shocks like financial crises, pandemics or . . . tariffs.

Like, if Trump does nothing, the economy will probably do just fine. But he wants to fuck it all up. I know it sucks and I don't like to wish hardship on anyone, but we also need MAGA to go down in flames. The tariffs will hopefully do that.

I don't think it's going to be such a light touch this time. China is already preparing "supply chain warfare." Just read an article about it. They aren't going to retaliate with tariffs. They are going to retaliate by withholding from us the things we need to make the products we sell.
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You could be right about the recessions.
 
superrific said:
I'm not sure recessions exist any more, outside of exogenous shocks like financial crises, pandemics or . . . tariffs.

Like, if Trump does nothing, the economy will probably do just fine. But he wants to fuck it all up. I know it sucks and I don't like to wish hardship on anyone, but we also need MAGA to go down in flames. The tariffs will hopefully do that.

I don't think it's going to be such a light touch this time. China is already preparing "supply chain warfare." Just read an article about it. They aren't going to retaliate with tariffs. They are going to retaliate by withholding from us the things we need to make the products we sell.
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How could that hurt? They only control about 85% of rare earth production along with a few other things like that that we would scarcely miss.
 
ChileG said:
I’m pretty sure the reason for the tariffs is because Trump knows he has to do something dramatic.
He can’t claim he fixed everything and the economy is great because of him if he doesn’t do anything.
He’ll create some unhelpful tariffs (and tax cuts) like he did with the soybeans that will hurt Americans, but it will give his acolytes something to point to as the reason their lives are better, as we slink into the next recession (that is most likely coming regardless of what Trump does)
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Trump came into office with a good economy handed to him on a silver platter by Obama. Within a month Trump was claiming his economy was the greatest economy in the history of all mankind.

Biden will hand a good economy over to Trump when he takes office in January. I expect that in February he will proclaim we have returned to the greatest economy in the history of all mankind.

and the media and unthinking Americans will jump up and down and sing the Doxology:(
 
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superrific said:
I'm not sure recessions exist any more, outside of exogenous shocks like financial crises, pandemics or . . . tariffs.

Like, if Trump does nothing, the economy will probably do just fine. But he wants to fuck it all up. I know it sucks and I don't like to wish hardship on anyone, but we also need MAGA to go down in flames. The tariffs will hopefully do that.

I don't think it's going to be such a light touch this time. China is already preparing "supply chain warfare." Just read an article about it. They aren't going to retaliate with tariffs. They are going to retaliate by withholding from us the things we need to make the products we sell.
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I googled “supply chain warfare” and read the NYTimes article. Thanks for bringing this to our attention.
 
Tarrifs are going to stal
superrific said:
I'm not sure recessions exist any more, outside of exogenous shocks like financial crises, pandemics or . . . tariffs.

Like, if Trump does nothing, the economy will probably do just fine. But he wants to fuck it all up. I know it sucks and I don't like to wish hardship on anyone, but we also need MAGA to go down in flames. The tariffs will hopefully do that.

I don't think it's going to be such a light touch this time. China is already preparing "supply chain warfare." Just read an article about it. They aren't going to retaliate with tariffs. They are going to retaliate by withholding from us the things we need to make the products we sell.
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There are long term ramifications to tariffs and trade warfare. The USA has benefited from 50 years of mostly open trade with the world...especially Europe, Canada, and China (since the mid 1990s). We've built the most significant economic empire in the history of the world on the backs of world trade and it could be argued that our dominance as a global power hinges secondarily (behind only our military might) on our ability to "sell" our cultural and economical largess to the world and buy that back from the world at a discounted rate. All of that is at risk by Trump's threats of 20-30% tariffs on all imported product.

I do agree though - tariffs, mass deportations, the inflation and possible commodity shortages that these policies could entail are the least of our concern if we have a Pete Hegseth as the head of DoD "facing off" with Russian Defense minister Sergei Shoigu trying to avert a real nuclear confrontation that could kill billions of people...or if we have RFK Jr. making it nearly impossible for people to get vaccines and causing a mass outbreak of polio or measles...or if we have Pam Bondi requesting arrest warrants for Wendy McMahon head of CBS News or fmr Congressman Adam Kinzinger...or if Trump fires all the Generals and uses his new obsequious military brass to maintain power post 2028.

Tariffs are temporary measures that can be rescinded with a new administration and while there may be long term damage - that damage can be repaired...a world war? death? the fall of our constitution? These are greater concerns.
 
p5mmr9 said:
Tarrifs are going to stal

There are long term ramifications to tariffs and trade warfare. The USA has benefited from 50 years of mostly open trade with the world...especially Europe, Canada, and China (since the mid 1990s). We've built the most significant economic empire in the history of the world on the backs of world trade and it could be argued that our dominance as a global power hinges secondarily (behind only our military might) on our ability to "sell" our cultural and economical largess to the world and buy that back from the world at a discounted rate. All of that is at risk by Trump's threats of 20-30% tariffs on all imported product.

I do agree though - tariffs, mass deportations, the inflation and possible commodity shortages that these policies could entail are the least of our concern if we have a Pete Hegseth as the head of DoD "facing off" with Russian Defense minister Sergei Shoigu trying to avert a real nuclear confrontation that could kill billions of people...or if we have RFK Jr. making it nearly impossible for people to get vaccines and causing a mass outbreak of polio or measles...or if we have Pam Bondi requesting arrest warrants for Wendy McMahon head of CBS News or fmr Congressman Adam Kinzinger...or if Trump fires all the Generals and uses his new obsequious military brass to maintain power post 2028.

Tariffs are temporary measures that can be rescinded with a new administration and while there may be long term damage - that damage can be repaired...a world war? death? the fall of our constitution? These are greater concerns.
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I'm not sure the damage caused by blanket tariffs can be repaired. I think it's more likely that the global economy just adjusts. Not necessarily in good ways.
 
Paine said:

Just as predicted. RFK will be allowed to undermine our public health through vaccine skepticism. Big Ag will still control the food supply.
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RFK is really a stupider SOB than I thought if he was really under the impression that Donald Trump would let him go to war with Big Ag. It's not only that Trump's word means nothing and he uses people until he's tired of them and then tosses them to the curb (paging Robert Lighthizer!). But of all the presidents who might theoretically be interested in a crusade for healthy foods, Trump? Trump? The lardass who thrives on fast food and soda? You can take one look at Barack and Michelle and realize that these are people who might sign up for anti-obesity policy. And you can take one look at Trump and the people in his orbit and realize that these are not such people.
 
superrific said:
RFK is really a stupider SOB than I thought if he was really under the impression that Donald Trump would let him go to war with Big Ag. It's not only that Trump's word means nothing and he uses people until he's tired of them and then tosses them to the curb (paging Robert Lighthizer!). But of all the presidents who might theoretically be interested in a crusade for healthy foods, Trump? Trump? The lardass who thrives on fast food and soda? You can take one look at Barack and Michelle and realize that these are people who might sign up for anti-obesity policy. And you can take one look at Trump and the people in his orbit and realize that these are not such people.
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RFK Jr: “Last week I was forced to eat a Quarter Pounder with fries, and I didn’t even get anything as a reward?”
 
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