Trump / Musk (other than DOGE)

[evrheel]

You think the vaccines are going to be banned?

yes

 

[dukeman92]

People have no idea what they've done.

 

[Mulberry Heel]

Sounds like a perfect guide for that portion of the Find Out tour.

Ah, another Heritage Foundation member. They should just go ahead and rename themselves the "Fascists R Us" organization.

 

[superrific]

Is UN Ambassador a cabinet position? I thought it was part of State.

I don't know. I just wanted a shorthand for "appointed member of the executive branch." You're probably correct

 

[Mulberry Heel]

Ain’t no mathematical way you could deport 300k on Jan 20, Jan 21 or any other day. It is not physically possible.

They don't care, they're going to try to do it anyway. And there's nothing to stop them. If blue state governors try to use the National Guard to stop them, Trump can always federalize the guard and take control away from the governors. Despite all the denials from Trump supporters that "it won't get that bad", this is going to get bad, really fast.

 

[lawtig02]

I don't know. I just wanted a shorthand for "appointed member of the executive branch." You're probably correct

It's cabinet.

The Cabinet | The White House

The Cabinet's role is to advise the President on any subject he or she may require relating to the duties of each member's respective office.

www.whitehouse.gov

 

[superrific]

I think even with a slimmer majority, they may be less miserable for a while because the trouble-makers are MAGA absolutists who will all fall in line behind Trump, which makes the Speaker’s job a lot easier.

The cracks will eventually show, because they always do in politics, but Mike Johnson will get a honeymoon coattail ride from Trump’s governing honeymoon, I think.

You might be right, but the cracks will begin when Trump's governing agenda runs us into a ditch. The Trump will be telling his loyalists it's someone else's fault, and meanwhile there will be members retiring left and right rather than get shellacked, and they will blame the Speaker because that's what they do. I wouldn't want to be a part of that.

Of course, I wouldn't want to be a part of the House period, so my views are not the best proxies for Stefanik.

 

[finesse]

Another favor from the Coors family.

 

[superrific]

They don't care, they're going to try to do it anyway. And there's nothing to stop them. If blue state governors try to use the National Guard to stop them, Trump can always federalize the guard and take control away from the governors. Despite all the denials from Trump supporters that "it won't get that bad", this is going to get bad, really fast.

I literally got a text from my mom, who claims that she didn't vote for Trump but I'm not sure, saying:

"Maybe almost losing his life when the bullet whizzed past his ear has changed him." That was sent to me on Wednesday, November 6, 2024.

It is going to get very bad. People have no idea. So many folks in complete denial.

 

[ChapelHillSooner]

Would like to see his budget and what he plans to do about the major drop in the construction and agriculture workforce.

Heard on NPR that they think that there are enough people who could work who are not working to fill them.

This is a complete fantasy. People are still struggling to fill lower pay jobs.

One person suggested that this might signal that they are getting rid of social programs that would force people back to work. I imagine some on my Facebook with SSI or SSDI did the FA and are about to FO.

 

[Mulberry Heel]

Heard on NPR that they think that there are enough people who could work who are not working to filI l them.

This is a complete fantasy. People are still struggling to fill lower pay jobs.

One person suggested that this might signal that they are getting rid of social programs that would force people back to work. I imagine some on my Facebook with SSI or SSDI did the FA and are about to FO.

I hope I'm wrong, but it's hard not to believe that six months into Trump 2.0 it's going to be complete chaos in the country as Trump and the people around him try to ram their agenda down everyone's throats despite the inevitable resistance, and the economy takes a major hit, with Trump's base suffering the most. They'll never, ever admit it publicly, but you wonder if that happens how many of his deluded supporters will privately admit to their spouses "How the hell did this happen? I didn't expect this!" as they lose their job and much of their social safety net has already been cut.

Oh, and even if they cut social programs, it's still not going to lead Americans to take those jobs. It's going to be a total shitshow in the housing and construction, agribusiness, healthcare, and any other industry that uses large amounts of immigrant labor.

 

[ChapelHillSooner]

I'm telling you, this is their play. They are going to try to remove birthright citizenship. SCOTUS will likely let them, and then presto! Those kids won't be citizens any more.

Lest we forget, the cruelty is the point.

And when our kids who are born after that point go to get passports, they'll have to somehow prove at least one of their parents are a citizen. What an administrative nightmare.

 

[Calheel]

They don't care, they're going to try to do it anyway. And there's nothing to stop them. If blue state governors try to use the National Guard to stop them, Trump can always federalize the guard and take control away from the governors. Despite all the denials from Trump supporters that "it won't get that bad", this is going to get bad, really fast.

I’m just talking physics. Not policy.

 

[superrific]

Oh, and even if they cut social programs, it's still not going to lead Americans to take those jobs. It's going to be a total shitshow in the housing and construction, agribusiness, healthcare, and any other industry that uses large amounts of immigrant labor.

For one thing, not everyone can even do those jobs if we wanted. There is no way I can be a roofer. I don't have the construction skills, the endurance, the heat tolerance. Same with agricultural worker. I would last one day tops in meat-packing plant. I may not be a representative of everyone, but I don't think I'm too far off.

Too many people don't realize that these jobs are hard. Some are skilled; some semi-skilled; some unskilled. But that doesn't mean just anyone can do them. If you've spent 25 years working in an office or driving a truck, there is no way you can fill those jobs.

 

[CRHeel94]

Ain’t no mathematical way you could deport 300k on Jan 20, Jan 21 or any other day. It is not physically possible.

I did throw out a random number out there. What I mean...make a big splash mass deportation early, make a big show of it for optics (like the wall) but not really doing much more than previous administrations.

I actually think this scenario is less likely given some of the people being named to the Trump staff.

 

[lawtig02]

I did throw out a random number out there. What I mean...make a big splash mass deportation early, make a big show of it for optics (like the wall) but not really doing much more than previous administrations.

I actually think this scenario is less likely given some of the people being named to the Trump staff.

The ICE guy interviewed on this weekend's This American Life estimated that, if funding is available, ICE can probably remove ~300,000 in the first 45-60 days and ~1 million in the first 100 days.

 

[superrific]

The ICE guy interviewed on this weekend's This American Life estimated that, if funding is available, ICE can probably remove ~300,000 in the first 45-60 days and ~1 million in the first 100 days.

Was he assuming compliance with law or not?

They can do more than that if they disregard procedures.

 

[CRHeel94]

Every time I try to convince myself "Maybe it won't be so bad", I instantly snap out of it knowing this incredible asshole will play an evermore important role in the Trump second term.

Can't wait for him and Musk to battle it out.

 

[lawtig02]

Was he assuming compliance with law or not?

They can do more than that if they disregard procedures.

Yeah, he was pretty careful to parse "law" from "policy," and he was making his estimates based on policy changes that could be made without actually violating any laws. But some of the policy changes would be brutal, of course, such as massive armed raids in schools, homes and churches.

 

[lawtig02]

Yeah, he was pretty careful to parse "law" from "policy," and he was making his estimates based on policy changes that could be made without actually violating any laws. But some of the policy changes would be brutal, of course, such as massive armed raids in schools, homes and churches.

Here's the relevant part of the transcript. Sorry for the length. I cut out a lot of it.

https://www.thisamericanlife.org/846/transcript

I tried talking to Tom Homan. He's rumored to be the next ICE director under Trump but has denied there's a written plan for mass deportations. And he ghosted me. Jason Houser, however, was eager to talk. He was the chief of staff for ICE under Biden for a couple years, has been working for DHS on and off since 9/11, mostly in enforcement.

* * *

Jason thinks that, first of all, the new Trump administration will immediately start to prep for this-- like, the day after the election, this week. They would start talking to law enforcement in different cities and getting them to agree to cooperate, hit the ground running in January. ICE would talk to home countries to get them to agree to take people back. And after those two things align, Jason says, ICE could decide to deport someone and they'd be out of the country within 24 hours.

Jason Houser​

I think the first 90 days is going to be hell. You're going to see the buses. You're going to see the migrants in your home-- not just blue cities, red cities-- Miami, Houston, Charlotte-- like, red states-- Kansas City, St. Louis.

You're going to see kids not in your schools. You're going to know where they're at because they're waiting in a detention cell and they have cell phones. You're going to see it in social media. You're going to see businesses not be able to open up because their workers didn't show up. You're going to see businesses being raided. And it's going to become more intimate.

This isn't going to be about separating a family at the border, that somebody doesn't know that family member. You're talking about separations and movements in your communities where you're going to know the guy-- Bill, Juan, Luis. You're going to know the individuals.

* * *​

Nadia Reiman​

Do you think there would be raids, then, in the first 100 days?

Jason Houser​

I think there would be raids within the first three weeks.

Nadia Reiman​

Really?

Jason Houser​

Yeah. Those are not hard to turn on. Like, to operationalize those, those aren't hard.

Nadia Reiman​

Where? Where would they do them?

Jason Houser​

You would go back to where there's big ICE and Customs and Border Protection resources to do enforcement. And you would do them in communities that would show the most cruelty. So there's nothing that would stop a Trump administration from going into the workplace, going into our hospitality sector, going into restaurants or businesses, and arresting individuals at scale.

Nadia Reiman​

Can you walk through what that would look like? What do you think that would look like?

Jason Houser​

Well, I think it would be very easy to focus on industries that have large numbers and high numbers of migrants working within them. What would stop them from going into a meat processing plant in Virginia? Say there's a couple hundred migrants. There's 80 on shift that day. You go in, you know there's one individual there that has a final order of removal, maybe has a nonviolent criminal background.

You go in, you do the raid, you line all the workers up, and you start checking status of each and every one of them, right? Or maybe you just arrest them all, bring them into detention, and then do the checks to see who is removable. There's nothing that could stop ICE, at that point, from just bringing people into custody, detaining them, and then figuring out who is removable at that time.

Nadia Reiman​

Tom Homan has not denied this, by the way. He's said publicly something like this would be necessary. Homan also said he would do national security threats first-- but then raids, sure. Jason says the raids under a 2.0 Trump administration could be more militarized, with SWAT-style teams. That's not how they've been done in the past. He also told me he thinks nothing would stop ICE from going into hospitals or schools or churches. Normally, ICE doesn't do that. But this is just a policy, not a law.

* * *

Nadia Reiman​

At the end of the 100 days, how many people do you think will be gone?

Jason Houser​

Let's just say this. Let's say all rules are out the-- and I can remove people that aren't removable. Like, I'm going to send them to third-party countries. ICE has 48,000 people in its custody now. ICE has 14 ICE planes that are hardened planes. They hold 135-- 135 souls. I need more of those. But while I'm sending those 48,000, I'm probably going to go out and bring another 50,000 to 100,000 into custody. So if you're talking 30 to 60 days, you could remove 150,000 to 200,000 people.

Nadia Reiman​

So 200,000 people in the first 60 days?

Jason Houser​

Yeah.

Nadia Reiman​

So in the first 100, that puts you at what, how many?

Jason Houser​

If all rules are gone and I can remove them anywhere, you could do a million.

Nadia Reiman​

A million people. Of course, Jason's predicting here, assuming there will be no major roadblocks. But the Brennan Center did this thing where they stress tested with experts and government people whether mass deportations could be done, gamed this all out. In their simulations, funding was a big obstacle right away, so their deportation numbers weren't as large as Jason's.

But that was also assuming that the House wouldn't go Republican, which is looking like it will be as I record this. That would make Jason's math of a million people more possible.