Trump still hasn't figured out tariffs are a tax on consumers — Announces blanket tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China

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CFordUNC said:
Yeah, thank goodness we are going to finally put an end to the scourge of…. check notes… Canadians pouring across the northern border into the United States.
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Well you know how people up here hate their lower costs drugs and medical care that doesn't cripple them financially for life.
 
I don't think the Administration will resort to across the boards tariffs. I agree that would tank the economy. There is a benefit to having an unpredictable President issuing threats against our neighbors. I guarantee you it will get their attention and they'll act accordingly. It's unconventional but I predict it works.

This also demonstrates that the center of world power currently resides in Mar Lago and not DC.
 
Ramrouser said:
I don't think the Administration will resort to across the boards tariffs. I agree that would tank the economy. There is a benefit to having an unpredictable President issuing threats against our neighbors. I guarantee you it will get their attention and they'll act accordingly. It's unconventional but I predict it works.

This also demonstrates that the center of world power currently resides in Mar Lago and not DC.
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The unpredictable part has its "merits" perhaps . Tearing apart our relationships with our neighbors and presumably with out European allies is the really scary part
 
Ramrouser said:
I don't think the Administration will resort to across the boards tariffs. I agree that would tank the economy. There is a benefit to having an unpredictable President issuing threats against our neighbors. I guarantee you it will get their attention and they'll act accordingly. It's unconventional but I predict it works.

This also demonstrates that the center of world power currently resides in Mar Lago and not DC.
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Ramrouser said:
I don't think the Administration will resort to across the boards tariffs. I agree that would tank the economy. There is a benefit to having an unpredictable President issuing threats against our neighbors. I guarantee you it will get their attention and they'll act accordingly. It's unconventional but I predict it works.

This also demonstrates that the center of world power currently resides in Mar Lago and not DC.
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Ok, but let's consider the possible outcomes. What if, hypothetically, it doesn't work? What if Canada and Mexico call his bluff?

What does he do then? He's got to respond in some way, or the whole world will follow suit. So, how does he respond?

Trump is the antithesis of Teddy Roosevelt's "Speak softly and carry a big stick." At some point, if he keeps going, however, he is going to have to pull out whatever stick he has. Because "being unpredictable issuing threats against our neighbors" only works for so long, without following through on said threats.

At best, unpredictability is a short term solution. But, when dealing with unpredictability, one has to also factor in what can go wrong vs. what can go right. Keep in mind, Trump has had the last four years to form his plan for this administration. But, so has the world. And, based on who Trump has around him in his cabinet, there is a good chance that the world can out-maneuver him. So, when things don't go his way, again, how does he respond, and what is the impact on all of us when that occurs?
 
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If you view tariffs as a form of low-level warfare against other Countries, they have no choice but to respond. It quickly becomes tit for tat. By now, these other Countries should be ready. Sounds like Mexico is:

If Trump carries out his tariff threat, Mexico should retaliate, leveling tariffs on U.S. corn growers, milk and pork exporters and other sectors that are among the president-elect’s most important supporters, said Ildefonso Guajardo, who served as economy minister and led Mexico’s negotiations for the creation of the USMCA.

In 2018, Mexico responded to U.S. tariffs on its steel exports by imposing matching tariffs on U.S. steel. It was also among the first countries to target key Republican districts in retaliation to Trump’s tariffs by slapping import duties on other U.S. goods including pork, cheese, apples and Bourbon.

“Trump said he negotiated a North America trade treaty that was the best in history,” said Guajardo. “I would use his treaty to retaliate in the same magnitude against his most important backers if he tries to hurt Mexican exports.”

 
Ramrouser said:
I don't think the Administration will resort to across the boards tariffs. I agree that would tank the economy. There is a benefit to having an unpredictable President issuing threats against our neighbors. I guarantee you it will get their attention and they'll act accordingly. It's unconventional but I predict it works.

This also demonstrates that the center of world power currently resides in Mar Lago and not DC.
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I mean, I don’t think they can do across the board tariffs without violating the USMCA and triggering all kinds of repercussions. For instance, Mexico is the leading supplier of auto parts to U.S. assembly plants now — this harebrained scheme could cripple Detroit (if implemented).

But, USMCA has a 6-year sunset that has to be reauthorized during the upcoming Trump term. That provides some leverage to the Trump Administration to threaten to walk away (though the long term impact could be disastrous to our free trade if we did so). There is supposed to be a 10-year wind down of USMCA is not re-urbanized but I assume Trump would say fuck that, so sue me and ignore the wind down if he got a mind to do so.
 
If Trump gets his way, we will have huge inflation.

I will give an example from my industry, Electric Utilities. Our meters are made in Mexico, and their electronic modules are made in the US. So modules shipped to Mexico will have a 25% tariff going in, and then the entire assembly will get a 25% tariff coming back. So a $100 meter will now cost ~$140.
 
Ramrouser said:
I don't think the Administration will resort to across the boards tariffs. I agree that would tank the economy. There is a benefit to having an unpredictable President issuing threats against our neighbors. I guarantee you it will get their attention and they'll act accordingly. It's unconventional but I predict it works.

This also demonstrates that the center of world power currently resides in Mar Lago and not DC.
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It’s an easy prediction to make when any outcome will result in “see, it worked.” That is my prediction.
As for “are they working right now?”
No, mortgage rates have risen because of Trumps “threats against our neighbors.”
So it is demonstrably NOT WORKING so far. The future is unknown but can you acknowledge that at this stage of the game Trump’s unpredictability is actually costing Americans money?
 
nycfan said:
I mean, I don’t think they can do across the board tariffs without violating the USMCA and triggering all kinds of repercussions. For instance, Mexico is the leading supplier of auto parts to U.S. assembly plants now — this harebrained scheme could cripple Detroit (if implemented).
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If Trump does this, it would obliterate the USMCA and we'd have to go back to the drawing board on trade agreements.
 
In virtually every permutation of game theory, acting 'unpredictably' is a horrible strategy. Regardless of what the orange clown has said, the West, and large parts of the world, have acted in relatively good faith since 1945, and especially since 1989, and world prosperity is at an all-time high. But fuck it. Let's go back to the law of the jungle because some asshole has made people think false braggadocio will 'Make America - currently, by any almost measure, the greatest country in history - Great....Again?'.
 
Gmonet said:
In virtually every permutation of game theory, acting 'unpredictably' is a horrible strategy. Regardless of what the orange clown has said, the West, and large parts of the world, have acted in relatively good faith since 1945, and especially since 1989, and world prosperity is at an all-time high. But fuck it. Let's go back to the law of the jungle because some asshole has made people think false braggadocio will 'Make America - currently, by any almost measure, the greatest country in history - Great....Again?'
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Correct. The only people who think that chaos and unpredictability are somehow effective negotiating chips when it comes to critical geopolitical alliances, are stupid people.
 
CFordUNC said:
Correct. The only people who think that chaos and unpredictability are somehow effective negotiating chips when it comes to critical geopolitical alliances, are stupid people.
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Let me offer a slight refinement.

It's not true that unpredictability can never be an effective strategy for anyone. For North Korea, for instance, unpredictability gives KJU a stature in international diplomacy that far exceeds what he should have based on the size, power and economic might of his country. It's a way for a nothing country to become a something country in this one respect.

But for a country that isn't just a something country but is actually a BFD, unpredictability is a negative -- as we all agree. My point is that Trump takes his cues from Orban and KJU -- i.e. leaders of nothing countries aspiring to be something countries. That's his mentality. It's also true that "unpredictability" is really just a polished turd of dementia.
 
mpaer said:
The unpredictable part has its "merits" perhaps . Tearing apart our relationships with our neighbors and presumably with out European allies is the really scary part
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They'll forgive us. Trump is simply using the economic might of the US as leverage in a way no other US President has done before. It's a bit unseemly but that's Trump. Canada and Mexico (from their perspective) can't afford to call his bluff.
 
Ramrouser said:
They'll forgive us. Trump is simply using the economic might of the US as leverage in a way no other US President has done before. It's a bit unseemly but that's Trump. Canada and Mexico (from their perspective) can't afford to call his bluff.
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With friends like these...

As a hegemonic, or near-hegemonic, power with the largest economy in the world, remind me why we are looking to upset the apple cart?
 
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