Trump47 Cabinet Picks & First 100 Days Agenda

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OK, the stock market didn't sour on the Trump presidency just because it had a bad week following an exuberant one. It may well sour on the Trump presidency, but we haven't seen that yet. I'm not putting any new money in equities, though.

I think the issue with the madhatters in the cabinet isn't only that it's showing Trump to be incompetent. It's that the rule of law is a foundation of any healthy economy, and these are people nominated for their lack of respect for rule of law. In addition, I think every rational investor should be, at least to some degree, sweating Trump's willingness to default on the debt. Since every one of his stupid intuitions seem to become official policy as soon as he utters them, it's really not hard to imagine Trump deciding that the way to combat inflation or win a trade war is to default on the debt and leave all those foreigners high and dry. Will he listen if someone tells him that most debt is held by Americans? I don't know. Does it seem like he's listening?

The other thing to consider is the effect of the recess appointment strategy. I would expect financial markets to panic and tank if Trump tries his Article II, section 3 trick of adjourning Congress. The currency of an autocratic government is ill-suited to be a reserve currency, and certainly Peronist economic policy would call into question the idea that the American economy is particularly resilient.

Again, it's not clear if anyone who knows things has his ear. Elon Musk? He seems to have lost his mind. Trump's Treasury Secretary? Maybe. If you want to avoid a financial collapse, you should be rooting for Lutnick to be Treasury Secretary. Guy's net worth is wrapped up in Cantor Fitzgerald, of which he owns a majority stake that is worth 10 figures. And Cantor Fitzgerald is a Wall Street trading firm, essentially. It's no exaggeration to think that in a worst case scenario, the value of that holding could fall to 10% of its current value or even less.
 
Agree that the market didn’t have a bad week solely because of the incoming president-elect, but it’s also likely true that this week, as Trump started making his cabinet appointments and as more and more Trump 2.0 policy aims have begun solidifying, investors are starting to realize that the incoming administration is going to be full of chaos, disruption, and volatility- all of which the markets aren’t generally fond. Pharmaceutical stocks, for example, fell yesterday immediately upon the RFK Jr. announcement.

I’m not worried that there’s going to be a stock market crash or anything. I do think there’s going to be a bear market soon. We have been due a correction, and Trump’s tariffs (and other idiotic policies) will probably hasten it. I personally don’t have any plans or desire to do anything other than continuing to pour lots of money into equities, but I also have an enormous risk and a very, very long time horizon before which I need my investment portfolio.
 
CFordUNC said:
Agree that the market didn’t have a bad week solely because of the incoming president-elect, but it’s also likely true that this week, as Trump started making his cabinet appointments and as more and more Trump 2.0 policy aims have begun solidifying, investors are starting to realize that the incoming administration is going to be full of chaos, disruption, and volatility- all of which the markets aren’t generally fond. Pharmaceutical stocks, for example, fell yesterday immediately upon the RFK Jr. announcement.

I’m not worried that there’s going to be a stock market crash or anything. I do think there’s going to be a bear market soon. We have been due a correction, and Trump’s tariffs (and other idiotic policies) will probably hasten it. I personally don’t have any plans or desire to do anything other than continuing to pour lots of money into equities, but I also have an enormous risk and a very, very long time horizon before which I need my investment portfolio.
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Sure, it's possible that the market is digesting this information. But in today's world, it's important to understand that so much trading is algorithmic. Big Pharma stocks fell upon the RFK Jr announcement? RFK Jr. can't do anything to affect Pharma's bottom line. But investors have AI programs to read news and trade on them. The algorithms are designed for very short-term use, which creates self-fulfilling prophecies. An AI program might see the news, connect RFKJ to anti-Pharm and then immediately sell. And why not? If everyone uses these same tools, the effect of the RFKJ announcement will in fact cause the stock to drop in the short-term, even if the fundamentals haven't changed.

A stock market crash is within the realm of possibility. In the past, markets have tended to weather the uncertainty of fights over the debt ceiling on the assumption that cooler heads will prevail. There are no cooler heads right now. So could the market utterly freak out if there's another debt ceiling stand off (especially if Trump is the one holding out, which seems likely)? Yes.
 
I thought Alina Habba was going to be Press Secretary. What role will she play?
 
With the news of Hegseth being involved in a sexual assault scandal, that brings the total up to four, by my count, in this administration.
Hegseth
RFK
Gaetz
And of course, Mango Mussolini himself is an adjudicated rapist.

I’ll ask this again. How do we look women in the face and expect them to feel safe? How do we expect them to come forward and accuse an attacker in this climate? I’ve given serious thought about moving. If I had daughters, I’d already be gone.
 
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