UNC Basketball Possible coaches

Centerpiece said:
Getting Lloyd seems like it would almost be too good to be true. Some serious pie in the sky.
But, if the skies open up, the thing I like about him is his years overseas and his expertise recruiting foreigners.

The curious thing about him was his absolute lack of any head coaching experience whatsoever. How lucky - or let’s say extremely insightful - for Zona to pluck a long-time assistant with no head coaching experience from the Paciifc NW and have that wet behind the ears greenhorn take Arizona to the top of college basketball? Tourney seeds of 4, 2, 2, 1, 1 and now a FF. And as has been stated, Zona wasn’t exactly lighting it up in years prior.

Who woulda thunk it?

Of course both Dean and Roy did it, so it’s not like it can’t be done.
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When Arizona first hired Lloyd I remember a few pundits saying that it was a known thing in coaching circles that he had serious coaching chops and was a big reason for Gonzaga’s success.

You never really know how it’s going to translate to a head coaching role until you see it though so it was still a bit of a leap of faith by Arizona. A lot of people said the same thing about Jerome Tang going to Kansas State after being an assistant under Scott Drew for awhile and look how that turned out lol.
 
Peppers49 said:
When Arizona first hired Lloyd I remember a few pundits saying that it was a known thing in coaching circles that he had serious coaching chops and was a big reason for Gonzaga’s success.

You never really know how it’s going to translate to a head coaching role until you see it though so it was still a bit of a leap of faith by Arizona. A lot of people said the same thing about Jerome Tang going to Kansas State after being an assistant under Scott Drew for awhile and look how that turned out lol.
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I think his well-thought-of coaching chops may have been attributed to his recruiting prowess. I did a quick Google and found:
  • Domantas Sabonis: Two-time NBA All-Star and key international recruit.
  • Rui Hachimura: Highly impactful forward for Gonzaga, drafted into the NBA.
  • Ronny Turiaf: A pivotal early European recruit who helped establish the program's international pipeline.
  • Kelly Olynyk: Canadian forward who has had a long, productive NBA career.
  • Killian Tillie: French forward who played in the NBA.
  • Robert Sacre: Canadian center drafted in 2012.
Other international players recruited by Lloyd who had notable careers (some briefly in the NBA or high-level pro) include Przemek Karnowski (Poland), Elias Harris (Germany), Kevin Pangos (Canada), and J.P. Batista (Brazil).
 
rodoheel said:
I get that but since Lloyd has gotten there they have gotten 1, 1, 2, 2, 4 seeds in the tourney, have made four S16 and now a FF. Is there any reason to think that level of success isn't going to continue if Lloyd stays there? And can he realistically achieve a higher level of success at UNC?

We'll potentially get Lloyd if we can offer him significantly more money (unclear, but doubtful) or if he really hates his AD and wants to leave (there's at least smoke there, but who knows).. I don't think, if he is making the decision based on which program offers him to best chance to succeed, that there's a clear case that UNC is the right answer for that issue.
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If you're comparing Arizona under Tommy Lloyd to Carolina coming off Hubert Davis' tenure, then you're certainly correct that Arizona and what Lloyd has built there is better than what he would walk into at Carolina.

But if you remove the current situation - which is how you evaluate programs (medium to long term) vs teams (short to medium term - Carolina is still a superior program. If you were to give each school an equivalent coach over the next 10 years, you'd expect Carolina to end with the better set of seasons because Carolina offers a superior brand, resources, and basketball fervor.

Remember this article last year about the "$10 million club" in CBB, Carolina's on it and Arizona is not.

That's not to say that Lloyd will leave Arizona to come to Carolina. The draw of staying near the west coast or building a legacy at a school like Arizona or seeing through what he started there or just not thinking that Carolina offers enough of a gap to make leaving worth it may keep him in Arizona. But between the two programs, Carolina has clear advantages over Arizona.
 
SnoopRob said:
If you're comparing Arizona under Tommy Lloyd to Carolina coming off Hubert Davis' tenure, then you're certainly correct that Arizona and what Lloyd has built there is better than what he would walk into at Carolina.

But if you remove the current situation - which is how you evaluate programs (medium to long term) vs teams (short to medium term - Carolina is still a superior program. If you were to give each school an equivalent coach over the next 10 years, you'd expect Carolina to end with the better set of seasons because Carolina offers a superior brand, resources, and basketball fervor.

Remember this article last year about the "$10 million club" in CBB, Carolina's on it and Arizona is not.

That's not to say that Lloyd will leave Arizona to come to Carolina. The draw of staying near the west coast or building a legacy at a school like Arizona or seeing through what he started there or just not thinking that Carolina offers enough of a gap to make leaving worth it may keep him in Arizona. But between the two programs, Carolina has clear advantages over Arizona.
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That's all fair, though I wonder how big the resource difference really is. But I think one of my questions still stands: can Lloyd in the next 5 years at UNC actually improve on what he's done at AZ the last 5 years? In other words, even if UNC does have better resources, is it going to make a material difference for Lloyd (other than us potentially being able to pay him more, which may be significant)?

To be clear, I want Lloyd. I would love for him to come to UNC. Part of this is just trying not to get my hopes up. But coaches in the midst of his level of success very, very rarely move jobs. The only ones this century I can think of are Roy (who obviously had a strong personal pull to UNC) and Calipari (who was not in a major conference and probably fleeing sanctions at Memphis).
 
rodoheel said:
That's all fair, though I wonder how big the resource difference really is. But I think one of my questions still stands: can Lloyd in the next 5 years at UNC actually improve on what he's done at AZ the last 5 years? In other words, even if UNC does have better resources, is it going to make a material difference for Lloyd (other than us potentially being able to pay him more, which may be significant)?

To be clear, I want Lloyd. I would love for him to come to UNC. Part of this is just trying not to get my hopes up. But coaches in the midst of his level of success very, very rarely move jobs. The only ones this century I can think of are Roy (who obviously had a strong personal pull to UNC) and Calipari (who was not in a major conference and probably fleeing sanctions at Memphis).
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Why focus on the next 5 years? Lloyd is 51 and he's choosing between Arizona and Carolina, he's likely got ~15 years left in his career and he's very likely making a "Where do I retire?" choice. The longer time frame considered, the better Carolina looks beyond having to rebuild for a year or 2 vs having a situation where's he's rolling.

A few more points...

When the next conference realignment comes, Arizona is a school that might get into the coming SEC/B1G breakaway conference(s) and Carolina is a school with essentially a guaranteed seat. That is a big difference in future money & prestige that counts for a good bit if we're looking at a 15 year remaining career.

When you're at the level of Tommy Lloyd, the way you consider two programs isn't as much "What is the average season I am likely to achieve at each place?" and is more "What is the ceiling at each place and which has me closer to consistently competing for NCs?". And that answer to that question is almost certainly Carolina over Arizona.

You ask about the resource differences between Carolina and Arizona, let's say it's 3 mil per year in NIL (plus the recruiting advantage of being at Carolina on the east coast). That's not a small amount of money and it could mean good upgrades at a couple of positions or an additional starter or a couple of additional reserves per year. Again, if the way you're considering your options is "Which gets me closer to consistently competing for NCs?" then it's hard to not see the differences in resources as a reasonably significant advantage for Carolina.
 
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SnoopRob said:
Why focus on the next 5 years? Lloyd is 51 and he's choosing between Arizona and Carolina, he's likely got ~15 years left in his career and he's very likely making a "Where do I retire?" choice. The longer time frame considered, the better Carolina looks beyond having to rebuild for a year or 2 vs having a situation where's he's rolling.

When the next conference realignment comes, Arizona is a school that might get into the coming SEC/B1G breakaway conference(s) and Carolina is a school with essentially a guaranteed seat. That is a big difference in future money & prestige that counts for a good bit if we're looking at a 15 remaining career.
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I think you're probably right that UNC is more likely to get a seat at the P2 table than Arizona. But right now neither has a seat, and betting on UNC on the expectation that it will have that seat is risky. Also, it is less clear to me that the P2 distinction matters as much for basketball, where lesser NIL resources are required - there certainly is no sign that the top B12 programs (KU, Arizona, Houston), Big East programs (UConn), or ACC programs (Duke, hopefully UNC) are being prejudiced so far by not being in the P2.
SnoopRob said:
You ask about the resource differences between Carolina and Arizona, let's say it's 3 mil per year in NIL (plus the recruiting advantage of being at Carolina on the east coast).
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It seems a little presumptuous to me to assume that UNC has any significant NIL (or more broadly, total player comp) advantage - much less $3 mil per year - over Arizona, or that there is a recruiting advantage in being on the East Coast. It certainly hasn't stopped AZ from acquiring and keeping an extremely talented roster - Peat, Bradley, Krivas, and Burries surely cost a pretty penny this year. If UNC truly will have that much more NIL money than Arizona moving forward, then I agree it would be a compelling reason for Lloyd to move.
 
rodoheel said:
I think you're probably right that UNC is more likely to get a seat at the P2 table than Arizona. But right now neither has a seat, and betting on UNC on the expectation that it will have that seat is risky. Also, it is less clear to me that the P2 distinction matters as much for basketball, where lesser NIL resources are required - there certainly is no sign that the top B12 programs (KU, Arizona, Houston), Big East programs (UConn), or ACC programs (Duke, hopefully UNC) are being prejudiced so far by not being in the P2.

It seems a little presumptuous to me to assume that UNC has any significant NIL (or more broadly, total player comp) advantage - much less $3 mil per year - over Arizona, or that there is a recruiting advantage in being on the East Coast. It certainly hasn't stopped AZ from acquiring and keeping an extremely talented roster - Peat, Bradley, Krivas, and Burries surely cost a pretty penny this year. If UNC truly will have that much more NIL money than Arizona moving forward, then I agree it would be a compelling reason for Lloyd to move.
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Betting on UNC having a future seat at the big boy table isn't risky, it's virtually guaranteed. We're pretty much universally viewed as the most attractive option currently outside of the P2. And while some schools are working right now to blunt the advantages of P2 money, that's going to get harder and harder as that gap gets larger and larger. We're likely staring down a new haves/have nots gap between the P2 and the "left behinds" like what is between the P4/5 and the G6, if not that between the FBS and FCS. It's not going to be a small difference within the next 5-10 years and that's within Lloyd's remaining career.

Looking around Google for Arizona's NIL number, the most consistent range is between $8mil to a bit under $10mil while Carolina was at $14mil for this year. While there is no guarantee that the gap will stay that large, a $3mil annual gap is certainly reasonable based on this year's numbers. Even if the gap is $2mil, that helps bring in a bit more better talent each year.
 
I hate when reporters ask questions like this. Everyone - including the reporter - knows what the coach is going to say, they just ask it anyway in hopes that the coach will slip up and say something they can seize on for ratings and clicks and hits. It's like when Bonnie Bernstein asked Roy Williams right after KU lost in 2003 about going to UNC. His team had just suffered a devastating loss - what did she think he was going to say? But of course she got herself a highlight moment with that question and Roy's blunt answer, which is why it was asked.
 
After an exhaustive, nation-wide search, anybody place any odds whatsoever the hire will still be family?
10%?
20%?
2%?
Or is it a done deal… we’re going 100% away from family on this one, no matter what?
Even if all the names bandied about thus far turn us down?
And the search drags on for weeks… months… getting increasingly embarrassing?

Not saying this will happen, just a worst case scenario “what if”
 
Centerpiece said:
After an exhaustive, nation-wide search, anybody place any odds whatsoever the hire will still be family?
10%?
20%?
2%?
Or is it a done deal… we’re going 100% away from family on this one, no matter what?
Even if all the names bandied about thus far turn us down?
And the search drags on for weeks… months… getting increasingly embarrassing?

Not saying this will happen, just a worst case scenario “what if”
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0%

I think that would be the ultimate insult to Coach Davis honestly.
 
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