UNC Football Catch-all | Bill Belichick Era underway

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SnoopRob said:
I remember that chart possibly having significant issues, but I don't remember why.

If the gap is anywhere near that large, I would expect the ACC schools with options to leave as soon as possible. Of course, as has been noted in other posts, the SEC/B1G has to open to new members and I'm not sure that happens until closer to 2030.
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UNC really should have been proactive about leaving years ago when the conference started talking about adding BC, Pitt, Louisville, Notre Dame and Syracuse. I thought the writing was on the wall then and it was going to lead to the end of the ACC down the road eventually. They never should have agreed to the new TV deal and stayed in the ACC.
 
SnoopRob said:
I remember that chart possibly having significant issues, but I don't remember why.

If the gap is anywhere near that large, I would expect the ACC schools with options to leave as soon as possible. Of course, as has been noted in other posts, the SEC/B1G has to open to new members and I'm not sure that happens until closer to 2030.
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The SEC wants to put a dagger in the ACC and stay ahead of or on par with the Big10. It knows there are only a few chess pieces left on the board and we are the queen (or at least a rook and a bishop). It isn’t likely to risk letting us to go the Big10. Thus, I *think* we can pretty much write our ticket when and where we want.

Part of the problem with the chart is that future revenue is a pretty guarded number, with just general numbers being discussed. And it also doesn’t account for an elite basketball year like the SEC just had in which it earned $70 million from the tournament. The public gets info that is almost two years dated by the time it is released. Thus, it is very, very hard to definitely state what the ACC and SEC will distribute in 2027 - a problem that is even more complicated with the ACC’s new model (as you point out)

That said, despite all the unknowns, I think it is highly likely that the finances mandate we give our withdrawal notice by next May 31 and we will be in the SEC or Big10 in 2027.
 
I thought for a long time that the ACC would find some way to muddle through, and under Swofford they pretty much did. And part of that belief was based on the obvious reluctance of UNC to leave the ACC. But this new ACC Commissioner just doesn't seem to be as effective at finding ways to keep the conference together, the money disparity between the SEC & Big 10 and everybody else is becoming too great, and I have come to think that UNC will look for a way out as soon as possible. The rise of paying players and the transfer portal have made a move more likely than not, imo. And I do think that the SEC or Big 10 would fall over themselves to add UNC and the state of North Carolina to their TV market. Along with Virginia, North Carolina is the last large Southern state to not have a SEC team and presence.

IMO, the biggest possible obstacle to UNC going to the SEC or Big 10 is that the UNC System BOG and even the state legislature may well be reluctant to allow UNC to leave for greener pastures and not NC State. As much as State hates us, I'm not so sure they would be willing to let us leave if they can't join us, especially if it meant they couldn't go to the SEC as well (I don't think the Big 10 would be interested in State, to be honest). And if State couldn't play us in sports every year it would be a big blow to their finances, as I'm sure we're a major draw for their fans in nearly every sport. Little Brother may well try to prevent Big Brother from leaving them for greener pastures if they can't tag along too.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
IMO, the biggest possible obstacle to UNC going to the SEC or Big 10 is that the UNC System BOG and even the state legislature may well be reluctant to allow UNC to leave for greener pastures and not NC State. As much as State hates us, I'm not so sure they would be willing to let us leave if they can't join us, especially if it meant they couldn't go to the SEC as well (I don't think the Big 10 would be interested in State, to be honest). And if State couldn't play us in sports every year it would be a big blow to their finances, as I'm sure we're a major draw for their fans in nearly every sport. Little Brother may well try to prevent Big Brother from leaving them for greener pastures if they can't tag along too.
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I think that is less of a concern today because the ACC will still be a solvent conference after UNC leaves (and in fact will be getting a lot of withdrawal money from the leavers) so State will be fine for the immediate future.

The original concern was that UNC would leave and the ACC would collapse. That does not appear to be an issue any more.
 
CFordUNC said:
Not a fan of the Belichick hire, but I would literally- not figuratively- crawl nekkid across broken glass just to swim through crocodile infested waters with raw steak tied to my ass for Nick Saban to coach UNC football.
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Forget Saban. Take that carnival act on the road and make a fortune. :)
 
Mulberry Heel said:
I thought for a long time that the ACC would find some way to muddle through, and under Swofford they pretty much did. And part of that belief was based on the obvious reluctance of UNC to leave the ACC. But this new ACC Commissioner just doesn't seem to be as effective at finding ways to keep the conference together, the money disparity between the SEC & Big 10 and everybody else is becoming too great, and I have come to think that UNC will look for a way out as soon as possible.
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To be fair, i think the die has been cast that the ACC would eventually lose their status as a high-level conference since Penn St agreed to join the B1G and Arkansas & South Carolina agreed to join the SEC in 1990. Those moves closed off the ability for the ACC to expand itself in a way that would significantly improve football. Of course, given that basketball was in the midst of a historic rise in popularity, it's hard to fault the ACC PTB from not seeing what would happen 20+ years into the future and make moves to feature football within the conference.

Since then, it's just been managing the fallout from being a basketball-centric conference in a football-centric world. Swofford did a good job, but he had more options and the gap between the ACC and the rest wasn't very significant. I have issues with Phillips as the commissioner, but there's really nothing he can do about the big picture problems the conference faces. He's like a reliever who comes into the game in the 8th down 6-0...you can try your best, but there's just not much that reliever can do to really help the team win at that point.

I think there's a chance the ACC may be able to hang on as a second tier conference alongside the Big 12. A lot of that will have to do with how many teams end up leaving the ACC for the SEC/B1G. If it's only a few (4-6), the conference may survive in some decent form. But if it goes beyond 6, I think the few remaining teams with any chance to do so will leave for the B12 and the conference will either fold or continue on in a tier below the B12.
 
SnoopRob said:
I have no idea what to expect out of this upcoming season, given a new coaching staff and largely new players.
My hunch is that we'll be a bit better than 12th, but you could slot us anywhere between 3rd and 15th and my reaction would probably be, "Ok."
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the schedule is about the same strength as last year and the roster is probably two wins worse IMO. it'll be a great stress test to see how much coaching can actually change a team's fortunes, and/or how bad Mack Brown actually was.

this paper suggests that CFB coaching can be responsible for up to a 25% swing in wins, which is 3 games in a 12-game season - that would give us a 7-win season assuming a transition from pretty bad to pretty good coaching. any less and you question belichick, any more and you burn mack brown in effigy.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
Maybe, but I would think that getting a foothold in a state as large as NC would still be very appealing to them.
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Part of it is real , ESPN or whoever eyeballs-part of it is "image" for say the SEC or BIG. Snowball effect
Hey we now have NC-with their 10 mill population-soon ( 15 yrs)a top 5 State
 
mpaer said:
Part of it is real , ESPN or whoever eyeballs-part of it is "image" for say the SEC or BIG. Snowball effect
Hey we now have NC-with their 10 mill population-soon ( 15 yrs)a top 5 State
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I'm not sure it matters. It matters but it's not an absolute must have. The top five states by population are currently california, texas, New York, Pennsylvania and Florida.

Neither the Big 10 or the SEC have new york. The Big 10 has California and Pennsylvania, but doesn't have Florida or Texas. The SEC has Florida and Texas but doesn't have California or Pennsylvania. The ACC has all five of the top five states and seems like just about everybody wants to leave it.
 
donbosco said:
The rise of a football-centric world is troubling...especially when that is at the expense of basketball and baseball.

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To some degree I get that, but the SEC is now the premier basketball league, largely due to money brought in by football. What is good for the goose…
 
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