UNC Football Catch-all | Bill Belichick Era underway

[Peppers49]

I don't think anyone has been happy, or even satisfied, with how this season has gone down.

In my opinion, the discussion now is - is there enough evidence to give Belichick another season? At this point, I'd say yes - largely because Mack left the cupboard barer than when he entered the program in the late 1980s.

I have seen enough evidence to convince me that, should we continue to see growth moving forward, Belichick deserves a second chance, particularly considering that we have 10+ four stars coming in next year.

If (and this is a big "if") we can keep much of our defense in the offseason, and find ourselves an actual quarterback, then I think the potential is there for a 7-8 win season next year, which will be good enough, with the schedule we have. Was I hoping for more? Absolutely. But getting rid of Belichick would likely mean that our ceiling next year is probably 4 wins, unless whoever came in could keep our best players and star recruits AND do well in the portal.

I personally have not seen enough to feel good about next season yet. As I’ve laid out a few times, I think we have to keep the momentum up and at least get to bowl eligibility to feel good about next season. If we backslide and finish the season with only 3 or 4 wins then there’s going to be a lot of negative buzz, especially if we get blasted by Duke and State in back to back weeks to close the season.

Gaming it out long term I just keep going back to Belichick’s age. I agree that Mack left the program in bad shape and if we had a coach 10+ years younger then I would be fine with a longer rebuild where we have to wait until years 3/4/5 to see the payoff. I worry that Belichick won’t have any juice to keep up recruiting momentum if he’s going into year 3 coming off a 7-5 type of season at age 75.

 

[CFordUNC]

It’s much more nuanced than you think, or are implying. You can’t say that if we play any team close then they have either failed or passed the eye test. There is way too much that goes into a game.

You are putting a lot more emphasis on W-L than eye tests or power rankings. (By the way, when asked during the pregame of the TCU game about our final W-L record, Saban said that if we win 6 games this year then BB should be up for coach of the year. I remind of this to point out that those who are in-the-know would disagree that 6-6 is bare minimum.)

I had forgotten Saban saying that until you just reminded me of it, but I wonder how much of that was him being fed the narrative by one of his best friends. Belichick is not dumb- I have no doubt that he was probably shell-shocked by how bad our team looked in training camp, and I wonder if that is when he and Lombardi began trying to set that particular narrative that Saban regurgitated. Because I know beyond a shadow of a doubt that none of us last December were talking about 6-6 being COY worthy for Belichick, and I know that as recently as the spring Lombardi wasn’t thinking about 6-6 being COY worthy when he was making the media rounds talking about how we were going to be the 33rd NFL team. This is not directed that you in anyway, and not directed at anyone in particular here, just more so a general statement at large, but I’ve become really frustrated with how much the goal posts have moved for Belichick since last December. If we were actually content being a 4-8 year 1, 6-6 year 2 type program, I think we would’ve hired Jon Sumrall or Jeff Monken or Tommy Rees.

 

[Peppers49]

It’s much more nuanced than you think, or are implying. You can’t say that if we play any team close then they have either failed or passed the eye test. There is way too much that goes into a game.

You are putting a lot more emphasis on W-L than eye tests or power rankings. (By the way, when asked during the pregame of the TCU game about our final W-L record, Saban said that if we win 6 games this year then BB should be up for coach of the year. I remind of this to point out that those who are in-the-know would disagree that 6-6 is bare minimum.)

Are you doing a bit here or something? I’m putting emphasis on wins and losses because that’s how sports work lol.

I also put zero stock into what Saban said about Belichick during a segment of college gameday. Of course he’s going to talk up his close friend and mentor in a public setting like that.

 

[sringwal]

This is not directed at anyone in particular on this thread, but more a general statement about our football fan base at large. I think a lot of Carolina fans want a big name coach but small name expectations. By that, I mean, people want us to hire someone like Bill Belichick who is the most accomplished NFL coach of all time, winner of six Super Bowls as a head coach, architect of some of the best defensive units ever, commander of a $10 million salary- but they want to be able to expect 4-8/5-7 seasons in year 1, 6-6/7-5 seasons in year 2, etc. To me, hiring somebody like Bill Belichick is supposed to dramatically elevate your expectations beyond what they would have been under a more “standard” coaching hire.

Who the fuck has said that they "want" the above? I know that this response wasn't directed at me, but I also know that I am one of the people it is probably directed at.

I'm talking about whether or not this season should lead to a termination of contract for Belichick - which comes with a $30 million price tag. I have seen enough to show me that, should our current trajectory occur, that it is reasonable to conclude that he deserves the chance to come back and that next year, 8 wins is reasonable enough for him to return. It's not what any of us "want" - but going in a different direction isn't going to magically make the team better.

 

[gregh1]

any high school coach would win big in college with ohio st etc type talent

its a simple game

Plenty of teams would've folded permanently after the TCU debacle. A good coach prevents that.

My question is, who has that ranked UVA team beaten?

It looks like NO ONE in the ACC is good.

Louisville, Miami, FSU (despite the w-l column) are probably top-25 teams in terms of stats. UVA beat Louisville... I'm not saying UVA is great, but they beat a good team.

 

[stankeylegjones]

Interesting. He started the opening game against Texas. I saw him when they were announcing the starting lineup on ABC. Haven’t kept up with him beyond that other than to know he is a contributor on the best team in America, so he certainly could have or should have been a contributor on our team had he not been low-balled the way that he was by this staff.

Was he low-balled? I thought I read on IC that he had his deal with tOSU in place well before BB was hired.

 

[CFordUNC]

Who the fuck has said that they "want" the above? I know that this response wasn't directed at me, but I also know that I am one of the people it is probably directed at.

I'm talking about whether or not this season should lead to a termination of contract for Belichick - which comes with a $30 million price tag. I have seen enough to show me that, should our current trajectory occur, that it is reasonable to conclude that he deserves the chance to come back and that next year, 8 wins is reasonable enough for him to return. It's not what any of us "want" - but going in a different direction isn't going to magically make the team better.

Well, every Carolina fan that moves the goal posts for our $10 million/year 6-time Super Bowl winning coach from "we're going to have the 33rd NFL team and compete for ACC and national championships" to "well, maybe we can finish 5-7 this year and if we're really lucky maybe we'll get a really good quarterback in the transfer portal this offseason and maybe if the stars align we can go 7-5 next year!" is saying that they want the big name coach without the big name expectations.

Should this season lead to a termination of the contract for Belichick? I mean, personally I would love for that to be the case, but I am realistic enough to understand it's probably not at all feasible for UNC, both from a financial standpoint and from an optics standpoint.

I'm not really sure what you mean by "going in a different direction isn't going to magically make the team better." How do you figure that? Going in a different direction would mean that we would go hire someone who has actually coached college football before, who would hire a staff of coaches who have also coached college football before, who would have an actual offensive schematic philosophy that works in modern college football, and would hire a player personnel staff who have actually successfully constructed collegiate rosters before. Going in a different direction would almost certainly make the program better, given that it would mean that we were moving from one coaching staff with no college football coaching or roster construction experience, to another coaching staff with presumably much more experience in both.

 

[CFordUNC]

Was he low-balled? I thought I read on IC that he had his deal with tOSU in place well before BB was hired.

Good question. It's been so long since I've been on IC that honestly I can't remember. It might have been that he had the offer from Ohio State and then UNC wasn't willing or able to match it maybe? Definitely can't remember for sure so I may be entirely wrong.

 

[sringwal]

I'm not really sure what you mean by "going in a different direction isn't going to magically make the team better." How do you figure that? Going in a different direction would mean that we would go hire someone who has actually coached college football before, who would hire a staff of coaches who have also coached college football before, who would have an actual offensive schematic philosophy that works in modern college football, and would hire a player personnel staff who have actually successfully constructed collegiate rosters before. Surely you don't mean to imply that Bill Belichick is the only coach that could go 5-7 to 8-4 at UNC?

After being in a $30 million hole because of the buyout? Yeah, I'm pretty sure that that alone would eat into funds enough to set our next coach up for failure.

 

[stankeylegjones]

I had forgotten Saban saying that until you just reminded me of it, but I wonder how much of that was him being fed the narrative by one of his best friends. Belichick is not dumb- I have no doubt that he was probably shell-shocked by how bad our team looked in training camp, and I wonder if that is when he and Lombardi began trying to set that particular narrative that Saban regurgitated. Because I know beyond a shadow of a doubt that none of us last December were talking about 6-6 being COY worthy for Belichick, and I know that as recently as the spring Lombardi wasn’t thinking about 6-6 being COY worthy when he was making the media rounds talking about how we were going to be the 33rd NFL team. This is not directed that you in anyway, and not directed at anyone in particular here, just more so a general statement at large, but I’ve become really frustrated with how much the goal posts have moved for Belichick since last December. If we were actually content being a 4-8 year 1, 6-6 year 2 type program, I think we would’ve hired Jon Sumrall or Jeff Monken or Tommy Rees.

Who really knows. I was pretty let-down when I heard that comment, and changed my expectations. Those fuckers did manage to pull me back into the hype though, the remainder of the Game Day after that segment, only to be reminded during the game.

 

[gregh1]

we deserve a lot more with what we are paying and im not giving bb and cronies any leeway whatsoever. i dont give one rats ass about any sports coach...never have.

Deserve is kinda subjective since nobody knows how quickly you can turn around a program. No amt of money during a tight window can make all of your players experienced, fast, strong and skilled.

If we had a mediocre QB and Blaske never went down this team would be probably be a top-40 team. Given what Mack left us do we "deserve" much more improvement thru 10 weeks?

 

[stankeylegjones]

Are you doing a bit here or something? I’m putting emphasis on wins and losses because that’s how sports work lol.

I also put zero stock into what Saban said about Belichick during a segment of college gameday. Of course he’s going to talk up his close friend and mentor in a public setting like that.

Improvement can occur, meaningful at that, and still lose a game. It's not a bit. The "eye test" should not be connected to the final outcome of a game. Feel free to do so, but I think you are being naïve in doing so.

 

[CFordUNC]

After being in a $30 million hole because of the buyout? Yeah, I'm pretty sure that that alone would eat into funds enough to set our next coach up for failure.

It's a $20 million buyout, not a $30 million buyout. It's a lot of money either way, but $20M and $30M are significantly different when talking buyout numbers.

Second, buyout funds are almost always raised predominately from private support, not from athletics department line item budget dollars. UNC is going to have $21 million for revenue sharing in perpetuity no matter what happens and no matter who the next coach is, of which the football program gets, what, $13M? Why would buying out Bill Belichick inherently mean that we'd have no money to support the next coaching staff?

Edited to add: I just re-read your response. To clarify, are you answering "yeah" to my question about wondering if you think that Bill Belichick is the only coach who could get UNC to go somewhere between 5-7 and 8-4? Maybe I am misunderstanding you, but Mack Brown, Larry Fedora, and Butch Davis all did exactly that. In fact, pretty much every coach UNC has ever had has done so.

 

[gregh1]

I’m putting emphasis on wins and losses because that’s how sports work lol.

That might be how sports works for you, but not for everyone. This sounds like the opinion of someone who grew up watching a dominant team that rarely lost, vs a team that was often an underdawg.

 

[C-Money]

Being ok with UNC football

That might be how sports works for you, but not for everyone. This sounds like the opinion of someone who grew up watching a dominant team that rarely lost, vs a team that was often an underdawg.

So fans shouldn't want their team to be a dominant one and win?

 

[CFordUNC]

Deserve is kinda subjective since nobody knows how quickly you can turn around a program. No amt of money during a tight window can make all of your players experienced, fast, strong and skilled.

If we had a mediocre QB and Blaske never went down this team would be probably be a top-40 team. Given what Mack left us do we "deserve" much more improvement thru 10 weeks?

Curt Cignetti took Indiana to the playoffs in year 1 with a bunch of former JMU players. And he's probably going to play for, and maybe even win, the national championship in year 2. You can absolutely very quickly turn around a program, by hiring someone who knows how to build a college roster and coach college players. If UNC hires Jon Sumrall last year, we probably get Darien Mensah, the best quarterback in the portal, and we probably have several more wins this year against the easiest schedule we've probably had in decades.

I guess my thing is I don't understand the point of us hiring Bill Belichick if the expectation was that it's okay to limp and plod along to a 4-win season this year, then try to win 7 or 8 in year two. If we were going to hire a 73-year-old coach with exactly ZERO collegiate coaching experience, then it should have been made very clear to him that it was imperative that he hire coordinators and assistant coaches, as well as player personnel staffers, who have all been highly successful in the college ranks previously. Allowing him to hire his sons, his buddies, his buddies' sons, and so on- none of whom had actual collegiate experience- was a terrible mistake.

 

[Peppers49]

I think you are being naïve

The feeling is mutual.

 

[sringwal]

It's a $20 million buyout, not a $30 million buyout. It's a lot of money either way, but $20M and $30M are significantly different when talking buyout numbers.

Second, buyout funds are almost always raised predominately from private support, not from athletics department line item budget dollars. UNC is going to have $21 million for revenue sharing in perpetuity no matter what happens and no matter who the next coach is, of which the football program gets, what, $13M? Why would buying out Bill Belichick inherently mean that we'd have no money to support the next coaching staff?

Edited to add: I just re-read your response. To clarify, are you answering "yeah" to my question about wondering if you think that Bill Belichick is the only coach who could get UNC to go somewhere between 5-7 and 8-4? Maybe I am misunderstanding you, but Mack Brown, Larry Fedora, and Butch Davis all did exactly that. In fact, pretty much every coach UNC has ever had has done so.

Thank you. I'd read the $30 million number somewhere and you are right, that does make a difference. With that in mind, buyout funds are raised by private support, but so is NIL. IMO, our NIL will take a critical hit if Belichick is not our coach next year.

I agree that every UNC coach has been in that area, but, again, I'm talking about next year. Next year, I believe that Belichick is the best bet to go 8-4. I don't believe that any incoming coach that we will hire will be able to accomplish that, in their first year, with the instability that getting rid of Belichick would cause.

I am not saying that Belichick should have been the hire, but he was. Before he even started here, I have been on record as saying that, no matter what, Belichick's time at UNC would be memorable. I stand by that, even if the experiment turns out to be a failure. But, no. I don't think that it make sense to end that experiment after this first year, as disappointing as it has been.

 

[Peppers49]

Being ok with UNC football

So fans shouldn't want their team to be a dominant one and win?

I’m talking about beating fricking Stanford, Wake Forest, and just one of Duke or State in football and some of our fans really think that’s unreasonable to expect lol. You can’t make this stuff up.

 

[C-Money]

I’m talking about beating fricking Stanford, Wake Forest, and just one of Duke or State in football and some of our fans really think that’s unreasonable to expect lol. You can’t make this stuff up.

I never get the mindset of thinking UNC can't be a powerhouse in football and a consistent top 25 team just because they haven't been. UNC has the name recognition and the facilities to be a consistent top 25 team. It comes down to money and making the right choices for coaches.