UNC Football Catch-all | Bill Belichick Era underway

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CRHeel94 said:
There's still an element of recruiting, it's just radically different than the previous version of recruiting.
Besides the money variable, the other big change is that you now need to recruit your own roster as well...continously.
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Which is done by paying them more.
 
Milk and Cookies said:
I'm still hung up on the 40+ HS class strategy. There's probably a reason no other program ever has signed that many HS kids. Each scholarship has an opportunity cost associated with it. The reality is very, very few of those 40+ will have any impact on next season. So we're heading into next season with fewer experienced upperclassmen than any other team in the country.

And if we've already spent $10m that's probably at least half of our total NIL budget - on players that won't contribute next season. We still have to pay to retain our better players and plug SIGNIFICANT gaps on the roster through the portal, including the entire OL which is historically one of the more expensive position groups.

Does this look like a slow speed car crash to anyone else?
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Yep. This is where my skepticism with the strategy resides. If we've already spent $10M on this high school class (and presumably will need to spend even more than that since we are also talking about flipping current SEC commits), then it's hard to imagine how much money we'd need to theoretically spend in order to 1. retain the players on the current roster that we wish to retain and 2. go "big-game hunting" at the QB position as well as replace the entire starting OL. A big-time instant-impact type portal QB could cost upwards of $6M-$8M himself. I have to feel almost certain that UNC does not have $25-30M to spend on a football roster for a 74-year-old head coach that just went 4-8.
 
CFordUNC said:
Yep. This is where my skepticism with the strategy resides. If we've already spent $10M on this high school class (and presumably will need to spend even more than that since we are also talking about flipping current SEC commits), then it's hard to imagine how much money we'd need to theoretically spend in order to 1. retain the players on the current roster that we wish to retain and 2. go "big-game hunting" at the QB position as well as replace the entire starting OL. A big-time instant-impact type portal QB could cost upwards of $6M-$8M himself. I have to feel almost certain that UNC does not have $25-30M to spend on a football roster for a 74-year-old head coach that just went 4-8.
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I think the number would need to be closer to $35 million (pooled from all sources) - if that $10,000,000 for freshmen is accurate (as returning players/transfers would expect to make more than the freshmen). I, too, am skeptical about the possibility of reaching that number.
 
Something that doesn't make sense to me: so this incoming freshmen class is to be the cornerstone of the rebuild.

Our 73 year old coach is beginning a complete rebuild in his second season. So the rebuild will start to pay dividends when he's 76? 77?
 
CFordUNC said:
Yep. This is where my skepticism with the strategy resides. If we've already spent $10M on this high school class (and presumably will need to spend even more than that since we are also talking about flipping current SEC commits), then it's hard to imagine how much money we'd need to theoretically spend in order to 1. retain the players on the current roster that we wish to retain and 2. go "big-game hunting" at the QB position as well as replace the entire starting OL. A big-time instant-impact type portal QB could cost upwards of $6M-$8M himself. I have to feel almost certain that UNC does not have $25-30M to spend on a football roster for a 74-year-old head coach that just went 4-8.
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It feels like the coaching staff has already punted on next season but no one is willing to say that. But if you just look at these moves its hard to argue that they're trying to field a competitive team for 2026.
 
LeoBloom said:
Something that doesn't make sense to me: so this incoming freshmen class is to be the cornerstone of the rebuild.

Our 73 year old coach is beginning a complete rebuild in his second season. So the rebuild will start to pay dividends when he's 76? 77?
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The staff will have to nail the portal if they want to even have a chance of being competitive next season. Seems pretty clear that they’ve been given the ultimatum that the product on the field needs to be substantially better in 2026 or they’re getting fired, and if they want the product to be better then they need a lot of proven talent.

If they actually are relying on this upcoming recruiting class to be the foundation of next season’s team then we all need to just mentally check out lol. There’s no chance that will work.
 
As the season comes to a disappointing close these're my general takes:

  • Talent evaluation: the learning curve was steep and met with a lot of arrogance (assuming that comes with Lombardi). Think they told some returning guys that they had little shot at playing time; still can't believe we let some of those guys walk. Some new guys worked, many did not live up to expectations. The biggest miss is at the QB position. I just don't believe Gio is a P4 starting QB. Much of our offensive troubles can be traced back to ineffective QB play.
  • Scheme/Staff: as BB was filling out his staff, it was very curious that he wasn't bringing in guys who had been successful at the college level. Having a pro coach, you would think he would surround himself with guys who had college experience and success. He went with what's familiar. The biggest miss was keeping Freddie as OC...still don't get that move (aside from a minimal nod to continuity...even though they had huge player turnover). Probably the easiest thing to fix, but that starts with willingness to be uncomfortable at the top.
  • Player Development: player improvement is not linear...more of a jagged line with an overall tendency. Felt like things were getting better in the middle third of the season, but that vanished in the final third of the season. Gio looked better in the last few games (not enough to be the guy), cause he was terrible early on. I believe there was a general feeling that BB and staff would coach up the team...that just didn't happen and is very alarming going forward. I'm a little shocked that younger players didn't get more snaps in the last couple games.
  • Gameday management: think this is the biggest clash between expectations and performance. The play calling on offense was terrible; our offense was terrible for most of the year with a few flashes of decent offense sprinkled throughout. In a general sense, I thought our defense got better as the season went along, but we had a great knack for anti-clutch plays that cost us a few games. There was an expectation about better discipline that never materialized.
  • Intangibles: the whole Jordan Hudson thing is a huge distraction and a pox on the house of Carolina. Incredible the amount of resources we squandered this year.

Putting aside the money and his previous resume for a sec, the grade issued of this season would be a D. Now factor in the money paid and the expectation.
 
What makes NIL so difficult is that it is speculative. It is a futures market. Unlike most pro sports contracts, which are based on past performance, you're giving a kid a sum of money mostly based on what they might end up being worth. There are some exceptions where a kid has proven himself at a comparable level, but for the most part it is all on the GM to identify and negotiate with players that are the right fit for the team and somehow identify an appropriate level of compensation. Unfortunately, we don't have the right GM or staff in place to do this... Hopefully, basketball is in better position.
 
LeoBloom said:
Something that doesn't make sense to me: so this incoming freshmen class is to be the cornerstone of the rebuild.

Our 73 year old coach is beginning a complete rebuild in his second season. So the rebuild will start to pay dividends when he's 76? 77?
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I suspect that the hope is that he will pass the team onto his son (Steve) at some point. There would, however, have to be evidence that his son is qualified to take over, which would involve, you know, actually showing success.
 
bassydude77 said:
What makes NIL so difficult is that it is speculative. It is a futures market. Unlike most pro sports contracts, which are based on past performance, you're giving a kid a sum of money mostly based on what they might end up being worth. There are some exceptions where a kid has proven himself at a comparable level, but for the most part it is all on the GM to identify and negotiate with players that are the right fit for the team and somehow identify an appropriate level of compensation. Unfortunately, we don't have the right GM or staff in place to do this... Hopefully, basketball is in better position.
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Truly. And by simple logistics you know that all 40 kids will not make it to the starting lineup eventually so you're paying money today that will walk out the door in a year or two without having contributed at all.

Just plugging in made-up numbers about how $10m might get spent on 39 recruits:

4* - 8 recruits x $750k per player = $6m
High 3* - 16 recruits x $200k per player = $3.2m
The rest - 15 recruits x $50k per player = $0.7m
Total = $9.95m

ETA: These are completely fake numbers though. I may be way off.
 
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I think the only thing that Belichick did a good job of this season was setting the bar low early. It looked so pitiful through the first 5 games that when the team did the absolute bare minimum and showed some competitiveness against a handful of bad to mediocre ACC, people actually thought it was some sort of meaningful accomplishment.

The reality is that for the majority of the season the team looked like they were just going through the motions. The defense looking competent at times is about the only remotely positive takeaway, and even then we still got routinely carved up and pushed around on that side of the ball.

Whole situation is depressing. Only UNC would be arrogant enough to double down on an obvious mistake and force the fans through another season of this mess.
 
Maybe the mindset to not playing our younger players towards the second half of the season is because the staff knows they are pretty good and is worried that they might get poached in the transfer portal if other teams saw them in action? Just spitballing.
 
Milk and Cookies said:
Truly. And by simple logistics you know that all 40 kids will not make it to the starting lineup eventually so you're paying money today that will walk out the door in a year or two without having contributed at all.

Just plugging in made-up numbers about how $10m might get spent on 39 recruits:

4* - 8 recruits x $750k per player = $6m
High 3* - 16 recruits x $200k per player = $3.2m
The rest - 15 recruits x $50k per player = $0.7m
Total = $9.95m
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It is surprising to me that high3* frosh are making 200k. Is that really the case?
I would think some of the low-star guys are offered something tiny with the promise that they can earn more as sophomores if they are decent... especially these secondary, wr and RB who look like dime-a-dozen.
 
CFordUNC said:
(and also, great news about Greg coming back full-time!)
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I saw the headline that he's returning and I was like, "I never knew he left?!?"

Then I read the article and saw that he'll be back full-time, which is nice.

Also, I reupped IC premium yesterday, so I'd like to think it was my subscription which pushed him back into the full-time fold.
 
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